14/3/21: COVID19 Update: U.S. vs EU27 comparatives

 Previous posts covered updates for Covid19 pandemic stats:

• Worldwide data: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2021/03/12321-covid19-update-worldwide-data.html, 
• Europe and the EU27 countries: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2021/03/13221-covid19-update-europe-and-eu27.html, 
• Most impacted countries: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2021/03/13321-covid19-update-most-impacted.html, and
• BRIICS dynamics: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2021/03/13321-covid19-update-briics.html.

In this post, let's take a look at the U.S. vs EU27 comparatives (some of these were touched upon in the previous posts).

So, five charts and a table. Starting with weekly cases:

Since the start of the pandemic, the U.S. has experienced three waves, against the EU27's two. The EU27's 2nd wave appears to have crested in week 45 of 2020, while the U.S.' current wave continued to rise through week 1 of 2021. 

Over the last 4 weeks, however, the U.S. case counts have been running 783,315 lower than those of the EU27 on cumulated basis. Furthermore, starting from week 8 of 2021, there is some early evidence of a potential Wave 3 starting in the EU27.

Weekly death counts are harder to interpret:

The trend in EU27 Wave 2 deaths counts indicates significant decline from the relatively flat peak that run from week 48/2020 through week 5/2021. The decline, however, only takes the EU27 back to the average of weeks 44 and 45 - the phase of rapid acceleration in Wave 2. The rate of decline has fallen dramatically in the last two weeks.  

The U.S. data is extremely volatile, but the peak of Wave 3 can be timed to week 7/2021, with plateau around the peak running weeks 1/2021-7/2021.

Cumulated deaths per capita trend:

• Since the start of Wave 2 in the EU27 (Wave 3 in the U.S.), EU27 deaths per capita have been converging with those in the U.S. through week 48/2020.
• From week 1/2021, U.S. deaths per capita started once again to diverge from those in the EU27.
• In the latest data, week 9 of 2021, U.S. excess deaths (population size adjusted) relative to the EU27 stand at 108,676, down from a peak of 117,345 in week 7 of 2021.

Mapping U.S. excess mortality compared to the EU27 and Europe:

• In highly simplified terms, the U.S. pandemic experience has been associated with a cumulative excess mortality, compared to the EU27 and Europe of between 108,676 and 182,892 cases, respectively, based solely on differences in population sizes.
• If older European and EU27 demographics are factored in, these excess U.S. deaths rise to 121,718 and 210,326, respectively.
• Both gaps have now resumed their rise, despite more robust vaccination strategy in the U.S.

The above figures are striking. In Vietnam War, the U.S. carried combat casualties of 47,434 and total casualties of 58,318 dead. The pandemic excess deaths toll compared to the EU27 is more than 2 times the total death toll of Vietnam War. 

Where the U.S. is performing better than the EU27 is in terms of overall mortality rate per positive Covid19 case: 

In both, the U.S. and the EU27, new cases have become progressively less fatal through week 34 of 2020. This is most likely accounted for by improved and earlier diagnostics and treatments, as well as by increased share of infections detected in younger patients. These effects were exhausted around week 35 of 2020.

The 2nd wave of the pandemic in the EU27 was associated with a significant initial increase in severity. A smaller increase took place in the U.S. in the 3rd wave. Overall, the most recent wave of the pandemic saw relative uplift in the EU27 mortality rate, while the U.S. mortality rate continued to decline. U.S. trend remains power-law, implying sustained decreases in mortality of new cases over time, while the EU27 trend has shifted toward a polynomial since Week 53 of 2020, implying rising risk of higher mortality, in line with the differences in the EU27 vs U.S. demographics.

Now, a summary table of key statistics:

The above is self-explanatory. The U.S. performs worse than the EU27 on all population-adjusted metrics. 

Here is the degree of relationship between deaths per 1 million population in the U.S. and the EU27 as linked to the Worldwide numbers:

Through the Wave 3 (U.S.) and Wave 2 (EU27), the relationship is effectively the same, with somewhat weaker connection between the EU27 and World rates than between the U.S. and World rates.