Friday, April 2, 2021

2/4/21: COVID19: U.S. vs EU27 comparatives

US vs EU27 comparatives in the pandemic dynamics through the week 12 of 2021 are showing continued, albeit declining improvement in the relative position of the US. That said, much of the improvement is down to lags in new waves development, with the EU27 now firmly in its Wave 3 and the U.S. potentially entering Wave 4.

Based on the table and charts posted above, Europe (EU27) has now lost the plot on containing the pandemic. This takes place at the time when EU27 is botching roll out of vaccinations. On the more optimistic side, the U.S. roll out of vaccines has been relatively fast-paced, although logistics and delivery have been highly varied across different states and effectiveness can be significantly improved.

As the result, U.S. has managed to somewhat shrink the gap in terms of excess deaths from Covid19 pandemic compared to the EU27.

With more people infected, and higher vaccination rates, the U.S. is also holding a major advantage on the EU27 in terms of mortality rates per case.

Nonetheless, dynamics of the pandemic evolution are not promising: the U.S. is potentially entering a new wave of the pandemic, Wave 4, on foot of:
  • Dramatic relaxation of prior restrictions and public health measures across many states, well-ahead of vaccinations making a significant impact on infections;
  • Increased seasonal travel and social activities (primarily due to Spring Break);
  • Severely lax enforcement of Covid19 restrictions and measures during the last 3 months; and
  • Effectively free-for-all, cavalier approach to public safety by many U.S. residents.
Growth rates in both cases and deaths are quite dramatic:

If sustained, these dynamics will lead to acceleration in deaths counts in the U.S. and Europe. As things stand, the U.S. death toll from this pandemic already exceeds the combined number of combat-related deaths sustained by the U.S. is ALL wars from the mid-point of the Civil War. Put differently, Covid19 has now officially killed more Americans within one year of the pandemic as 160 years of all wars the U.S. engaged in. The U.S. excess death toll relative to the EU27, adjusting for population sizes is now at 111,789 - more than all deaths in combat since 1945. Adjusting for age differences and population sizes, U.S. excess mortality from Covid19 is 125,204 or more than total U.S. combat deaths since the start of 1945, the last year of World War 2.

Is American public health system fit for purpose? Anyone? 

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