As promised in the previous post, ehre's some analysis of the breakdown for data for the Basic Pharmaceutical Products and Preparations Sector (BPP):
- Overall volume of production in the sector rose to 150.6 in December 2012, up strongly (+20.48%) m/m and even up y/y on year (+7.73%). However, compared to December 2010 the index is down 9% and relative to monthly peak it is down 16.47%. Back in December 2011 the index fell 15.53% y/y so there is some consolation there.
- 3mo average through December 2012 was down 5.79% on 3mo average through September 2012 and 11.53% down y/y.
- Overall, short-term rise in the index m/m is encouraging, but also consistent with pharma companies beefing up Q4 numbers.
- Turnover fell in December from 123.1 in November to 107.5 a drop of 12.67% m/m and down 39.47% y/y. Compared to December 2010 the index is now down 29.32%
- The rate of fall is accelerating: in December 2011 the index rose 16.77% y/y as opposed to December 2012 fall of 39.47% y/y.
- 3mo average through December 2012 was down 12.93% on 3mo average through September 2012 and 26.92% down on 3mo average through December 2011. Current 3mo period was down 21.55% on same period in 2010.
Chart below illustrates just how much out of line the turnover index is relative to historical readings and the contrast to volume of production index:
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