Tuesday, August 5, 2014

5/8/2014: Russia: Manufacturing, Services & Composite PMIs: July 2014

Russia Services and Composite PMIs are out for July (released by Markit and HSBC). Here are the top-level numbers:

  • Recall that Manufacturing PMI cam in at 51.0 in July, up on 49.1 in June and 49.2 in July 2013. This marks the first month of above 50.0 reading. Manufacturing went below 50.0 mark in July 2013, so this means we had 11 months of contracting output from July 2013 through June 2014 and one month of expansion at 51.8 back in October 2013. This is evidence of a structural slowdown in the economy, compounded by the Ukrainian crisis, although the effects of the crisis are not the only explanatory factor here.
  • Services PMI came in at 49.7 - marginally below 50.0 and slightly lower than 49.8 reading in June 2014. In July 2013 the index stood at 48.7. All in, we now have 5 consecutive months of readings below 50.0 with marked slowdown in growth starting around July 2013 and accelerating from March 2014 through June 2014. 3mo MA is now at 48.5 which is nearly identical to 48.4 3mo MA through April 2014. 3mo MA for 3 months through July 2013 was at 49.6. Again, structural slowdown is evident in the series and again, the slowdown is being exacerbated by the Ukrainian crisis.
  • Composite PMI came in at 51.3, marking second consecutive month of above 50.0 readings (although June reading of 50.1 was extremely weak). 3mo MA through July 2014 is at 49.5 and 3mo MA through April 2014 was 48.5, while 3mo MA through July 2013 was at 49.9. Exactly the same story as with the above sectoral indices: manifestation of a slowdown in July 2013, followed by continued weakness through February 2014 and deepening in slowdown from March 2014 through May-June 2014.
Chart to illustrate:

All PMIs remain in 'troubled waters' per trend - it will take at least 3 months to reestablish any upward trend and there is significant risk that fragile July improvements can be reversed in months ahead. The Ukrainian crisis is now starting to bite - gradually ramping up downward pressure on the economy.
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