Monday, February 11, 2013

11/2/2013: Irish Industrial Production & Turnover: December 2012


Still catching up with data updates following a busy week lecturing.

Last week CSO issued data for december 2012 on Industrial Production and Turnover. Here's the detailed breakdown.

On Production volumes side:

  • Index of production in Manufacturing Sectors rose to 112.0 in December 2012 up 11% on 100.9 in November 2012. Year on year index is up 2.85% - anaemic, but at least positive. 
  • However, compared to December 2007 the index is still down although insignificantly at -1.72%. The issue here is that de facto this means that Irish Manufacturing Sectors are static over the last 5 years. 
  • 3mo average through December is down 3.77% on 3mo average through September 2012 and is 7.15% down on 3mo average through December 2011. Thus, longer term dynamics, smoothing out some of the m/m volatility are not encouraging. 
  • On shorter end of dynamics, however, things are slightly better: December reading is 112 and it is well-ahead of 6mo MA of 106.75 and 12mo MA of 108.99.
  • Index of production in All Industries also improved in December to 108.8 up 1.58% y/y and 8.47% m/m.
  • Compared to December 2007 the index is down significantly at -4.26%, which again shows that Industrial activity in Ireland has fallen relative to 5 years ago or at the very least - has not risen.
  • 3mo average through December 2012 is 3.83% behind 3mo average through September 2012 and 7.01% below 3mo average through December 2011.
  • As with manufacturing, shorter end of dynamics is more positive with December 2012 reading at 108.8 ahead of 6mo MA of 105.12 and 12mo MA of 107.19. 
  • Modern sectors activity rose strongly at 9.3% m/m to 120.6 in December 2012, although y/y rise was much weaker at 1.86%. 
  • The index is ahead of December 2007 by a marginal 1.82%.
  • 3mo average through December 2012 is 7.68% below 3mo average through September 2012 and 9.61% below 3mo average through December 2011.
  • Shorter dynamics are not too positive: the current reading of 120.6 is only marginally ahead of 119.82 6mo MA and is below 12mo MA of 124.05. 
  • All dynamics in the Modern Sectors show steep falloff in Pharma activity.
  • Lastly, Traditional Sectors activity returned to contraction in December, falling to 86.9 (-1.3% y/y and -1.25% m/m). The index is now 15.35% below where it was in December 2007. 3mo average through December 2012 is 1.73% down on previous 3mo period and is 1.37% down on same 3mo average in 2011. Worse than that, after posting a surprise uplift in November, the index is now running only slightly ahead of 6mo MA of 85.5 and 12mo MA of 85.13.
  • So on the net, good news is that outside Traditional Sectors time series in volume activity are trending up in last two-three months. Bad news is - we are still off the levels of activity consistent with 2011 and are way off from regaining any sensible growth on 2007.
Chart to illustrate:


On Turnover Indices side:
  • Manufacturing Sectors turnover fell from 101.1 in November 2012 to 97.0 in December 2012, down 3.10% m/m and down 10.76% y/y, both steep declines. Compared to the same period of 2007 the index is now down 9.5%. 3mo average through December 2012 is down 4.35% on 3mo average through September 2012 and is down 6.36% y/y.
  • This index is pretty volatile m/m but overall, 6mo MA is at 98.93 and 12mo MA at 98.33 - both ahead of December monthly reading.


New Orders sub-index for all sectors is trending flat over the recent months (as per chart above) reaching 96.9 in December 2012, down from 100.1 in November 2012, so the index is down 3.2% m/m and it is down even more significant 10.9% y/y. Compared to December 2007 the index is down 11.6%. On 3mo dynamics the index is down 5.04% period on period and 6.7% y/y.

I will blog separately on dynamics in the phrama sector next.
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