16/10/20: COVID19 Update: U.S. vs EU27

 

In two previous posts, I have updated data for COVID19 pandemic through October 16 for:

• Global cases and deaths: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/10/161020-covid19-update-worldwide-cases.html
• Countries with > 100,000 cases: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/10/161020-covid19-update-countries-with.html

Now, as usual, EU27 vs U.S. comparatives.

Things are getting once again very serious in Europe, of course, which makes this update a bit of change on prior.

So, let's start with cases and daily deaths:

• The EU27 are now experiencing a full-blown second wave of infections. As the result, over October 1-16, EU27 new case numbers have surpassed the U.S. on 14 occasions and deaths on 3 occasions.
• The above development is extremely alarming. As the first chart shows, EU27 is setting new records in total numbers of daily cases, records that are running at a rate of 3 times higher daily new cases counts that at the peak of the first wave of the pandemic. This will, inevitably, translate into higher levels of deaths in weeks to come. More ominously, current rates of new cases arrivals in the EU27 are bound to overwhelm the healthcare systems of the member states.
• Meanwhile, the U.S. is also seeing increases in new cases, having enjoyed a temporary and short relief from the peak of the second wave around the end of the second week in September. Since then, the U.S. new cases are running at accelerating rates once again.
• In other words, it is time to call the third wave of the pandemic in the U.S.
• Deaths are also on a rising trend, in Europe, while lagging new cases explosion in the U.S.

Table below shows averages by month of both deaths and cases:

• EU27 daily deaths counts are running at the rates more than double of September, more than 3.5 times the rates of August. October so far is the fourth deadliest month in this pandemic for the European Union.
• U.S. daily deaths are the pandemic lows, but still significantly above those in the EEU27.

Overall:

• The U.S. has a vastly higher death rate per 1 million population than the EU27 rate:  Current death rate per 1 million of population in the U.S. is 665.4 against the current death rate per 1 million of population in the EU27 is 347.9
• Put differently, current U.S. death rate per capita is 91 percent above that for the EU27. 
• Overall counts of deaths in the U.S. are now above the EU27, since July 12. Current excess gap is at +66,037.
• Currently, adjusted for population and pandemic timing differences, the U.S. has 114,621 more deaths than the EU27. 
• Meanwhile, owing to the second wave of the pandemic raging in Europe, EU27 member states are starting to go back into lockdown management mode. 

16/10/20: COVID19 Update: Countries with > 100,000 cases

 

Worldwide COVID19 developments through October 16 ECDC data were covered in the post here: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/10/161020-covid19-update-worldwide-cases.html. Now, as usual, time to take a look at the group of countries with more than 100,000 cases.

As always, the table is presented in two parts:

Here are some summary cases:

The above shows relative positions of the U.S., EU27, G7+ Spain, BRIICS+ Turkey in the league standings. The U.S. continues to lead in terms of both deaths and cases impact of the pandemic, accounting for 20% of all global cases and deaths, despite having just over 4.3% of the world's population. Thanks for the new wave of thee pandemic now hitting the EU27, this group of countries has moved from being statistically 'average' to being 'worse than average' to join the U.S. and other heavily-impacted countries. 

Summary of descriptive statistics:

In terms of overall performance, thee U.S. ranks 9th worst in the league of countries with > 100,000 cases, while the EU27, if it was a country of its own, would have ranked 18th. The UK ranks 9th worst, Spain 5th worst. Peru is the worst impacted country with more than 100,000 cases, followed by Belgium in the 2nd place, Bolivia in the 3rd and Brazil in thee 4th.

Stay tuned for my usual in-depth look at the U.S. vs EU27.

16/10/20: COVID19 Update: Worldwide Cases and Deaths

 

Based on the ECDC data through October 16, 2020, here are the latest COVID19 pandemic numbers worldwide:

Cases:

• As of October 16, there were 38,941,034 cases identified world-wide. 
• The rate of new cases arrivals 338,793 per day over the last 7 days, which is above the 30-days average of 311,074.
• Since the start of October, there were 8 days with daily counts ranked within the top 10 highest in the entire history of the pandemic.
• The rate of new cases arrivals rose to a massive 21.2 percent in October to-date, almost 50% higher than the average daily growth rate in September, almost 50 times the rate of new cases growth in August, and more than double the rate of growth in June-July.
• All of the above clearly indicates that, globally, we are still in the acceleration phase of the first wave of COVID19 pandemic.

Deaths:

• The slight reduction in daily counts we've seen between the first week of August and the end of September is now fully exhausted. 
• Over the last 7 days, daily death counts averaged 5,135 worldwide, which is slightly below the 30-days average of 5,486,  but rising once again.
• October (to-date) average daily growth rate in deaths is 17.62%, which is massive, compared to September's 9.99%, and to falling rate of -2.41% recorded in August. October rate is so far three times higher than June-July rate.
• Note that October to-date rate of growth in new cases is pretty close to the rate of growth in new deaths. This is worrying, because it seems to contradict some claims made in the media about allegedly rapidly declining mortality of COVID19.

Net: rates of growth:

You can see the trends discussed above in the chart: from April through July, we witness sustained case of daily deaths growth rates running below the new cases growth rates. Starting with the fourth week of July, this relationship breaks down. 

The above fact suggests that it is too premature to claim that COVID19 pandemic is on track to containment: both cases and deaths numbers indicate that the global pandemic has returned to an accelerating phase of its dynamics, 

14/10/20: BRIC: Composite economic activity indicators Q3 results

 

We covered in detail strong recovery in BRIC Manufacturing PMIs (https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/10/141020-bric-manufacturing-pmis-q3.html) and fragile recovery in Services PMIs (https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/10/141020-bric-services-pmis-q3-results.html). Here is a summary chart:

Now, let's take a look at BRIC Composite PMIs for 3Q 2020:

Brazil Composite PMI ended Q3 2020 on a reading of 51.6 - an improvement on 31.8 in 2Q 2020. Brazil's Composite PMIs have run sub-50 recessionary reading in 1Q and 2Q 2020, returning to growth in 3Q 2020, albeit at the levels not consistent with a V-shaped recovery.

Russia Composite PMI stood at a strong 55.9 reading in 3Q 2020, up on 32.6 in 2Q 2020 and signaling an end to 2 consecutive quarters of sub-50 readings. This marks the fastest pace of growth since 1Q 2017, but is also consistent with the levels of current activity being still below pre-COVID19 pandemic period. 

India Composite PMI remained in recessionary territory in 3Q 2020 at 45.9, an improvement on 19.9 in 2Q 2020. Overall, Indian economy has suffered the sharpest hit from the pandemic, compared to all other BRICs. It is continuing to exhibit recessionary dynamics to-date. 

China Composite PMI ended 3Q 2020 at 54.7, marking the second consecutive quarter of recover (2Q 2020 reading was 52.6). 3Q 2020 reading is the highest since 1Q 2020, and suggests that the Chinese economy is getting close to recovery in its activity levels to pre-pandemic position. 

Overall, BRIC block activity indices imply lagging momentum in the recovery in services, and faster than global pace of recovery in manufacturing. Statistically, BRIC growth momentum in 3Q 2020 is within historical average, however, growth dynamics in 1Q and 2Q 2020 were significantly below historical averages, which implies that 3Q 2020 PMIs indicate incomplete or only partial recovery in the BRIC economies post-pandemic so far.

14/10/20: BRIC: Services PMIs Q3 results

 

BRIC Manufacturing has rebounded strongly from thee pandemic lows, as covered in this post here: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/10/141020-bric-manufacturing-pmis-q3.html. Services PMI for the BRIC economies signal similar, albeit weaker rebound in July-September:

Brazil Services PMI stayed in the recession territory in 3Q 2020, with index reading coming in at 47.5, up on 30.3 in 2Q 2020, but still marking a third consecutive quarter of sub-50 readings. Put simply, unlike manufacturing that is showing rather incredible signs of the recovery, Brazil's services sectors continue to show ongoing contraction, building on 6 consecutive months of contracting activity through August 2020. September monthly reading at 50.4 is statistically indistinguishable from zero growth line of 50.0. In summary, Brazil's services sector is not in a recovery so far.

Russia Services PMI posted very strong recovery signals in 3Q 2020, although September reading slipped to 53.7 (fast growth) from blistering 58.5 and 58.2 in July and August, respectively. 3Q 2020 Russia Services PMI was at 56.8 marking a sharp turnaround from 36.0 in 2Q 2020. This is the fastest pace of quarterly expansion since 1Q 2017.

India Services PMI remains in contraction, with 3Q 2020 reading of 41.9, an improvement on sharper rates of deterioration in 2Q 2020 at 17.2. September marked seventh consecutive month of sub-50 readings in Services sector in India.

China Services PMI came in at 54.3 in 3Q 2020, up on 52.6 in 2Q 2020, marking second consecutive quarter of recovery from the pandemic lows of 1Q 2020 when the index fell to 40.4. 

Overall, BRIC Services Activity Index - an index compiled by me based on GDP shares and Markit monthly PMI data - rose from 40.4 in 2Q 2020 to 51.0 in 3Q 2020. Given the nature of PMIs as signals of monthly changes in activity, 3Q 2020 reading is consistent with the BRIC block services sectors recovering only partially from the pandemic lows. BRIC Services Activity Index ended 3Q 2020 at the levels slightly below the Global Services PMI which stood at 51.4. Global services sectors are also showing more rapid rate of quarterly recovery, rising from 35.6 in 2Q 2020 to 51.4 in 3Q 2020.

14/10/20: BRIC: Manufacturing PMIs Q3 results

 

BRIC - Brazil, Russia, India and China - economies have posted a significant improvement in Q3 Purchasing Managers Indices in Manufacturing sector:

Brazil Manufacturing PMI rose to 62.6 - the highest on record in 3Q 2020 following 42.0 recessionary reading in 2Q 2020. This is a massive rebound from pandemic lows, and the level of 3Q reading puts into question validity or accuracy of the surveys. On a monthly basis, the index was at 64.7 and 64.9 in August and September. Brazil's manufacturing index was at sub-50 readings in March-May 2020, with a reasonably credible rebound in June and July. August and September readings are literally out of the ball park, both in terms of historical comparatives and in terms of past turning points from recessions to expansions. 

Russia Manufacturing PMI treaded water in 3Q 2020, swinging from 48.4 in July to 51.1 in August and back to 48.9 in September. As the result, Russia posted sub-50 reading for 3Q 2020 at 49.5, the only BRIC economy in this position. This marks 5th consecutive quarter of sub-50 PMIs. Statistically,  the last time Russian manufacturing was in the expansion territory was in 1Q 2019. 

India Manufacturing PMI rose strongly in Q3 2020 to 51.6, well above 35.1 recession trough in Q2 2020. However, statistically, current reading signals relatively weak recovery. September monthly index came in at more robust 56.8, suggesting that the economy may be gathering some momentum and recovery may be accelerating. 

China Manufacturing PMI was basically unchanged at 53.0 in September compared with 53.1 in August. 3Q 2020 PMI is at 53.0, which is an improvement on statistically zero growth reading of 50.4 in 2Q 2020. China's Manufacturing PMI numbers are historically less volatile, so 53.0 marks the fastest pace of expansion since 4Q 2010.

Overall, GDP-weighted BRIC Manufacturing Activity Index stood at 53.0 in 3Q 2020, above the Global Manufacturing Index (51.6) and up on 45.0 in 2Q 2020.

12/10/20: Ireland PMIs and Economic Activity Dynamics for September

 

September data on Irish Purchasing Managers Indices is now complete (with Construction sector reporting last), and the signals coming from the data are not pretty:

Services sector activity is back in contraction: September reading of 45.8 shows relatively sharp downward momentum, swinging 6.6 points on August reading. September reading is statistically below 50.0 zero growth line, and below historical mean (55.0).

Manufacturing sector reading is at stagnation 50.0 in September, down from 52.3 in August. Statistically, September reading is below historical average of 51.4.

Construction sector is posting a second consecutive month of contraction at 47.0 in September. The reading is statistically below both the historical mean and the median, as well as below 50.0 zero growth line.

This means that official composite PMI (which does not include Construction sector index) is now at 46.9, statistically signalling economic contraction. September index is statistically below index median, although it is statistically indistinguishable for the historical average (which, owing to massive volatility in recent months sits at 49.8).

Chart above shows my own 3-Sectors Index of economic activity, integrating Manufacturing, Services and Construction sectors PMIs, weighted by their relative contributions to Gross Value Added. 3 Sectors Index has fallen from 52.1 in August to 47.5 in September. August reading by itself was not impressive: it was statistically below the historical average and the median, and was barely statistically significantly above 50.0 zero growth line. September reading is very poor, indicating a return of recessionary dynamics in the Irish economy in a critical month of September that normally marks strong growth month for the economy.

8/10/20: COVID19 Update: Russia

 Russia is now in a full-blown second wave of the pandemic:

• 14-days MA of deaths has risen since the lows of ca 100/day to current levels of ca 140/day.
• Stripping out some volatility induced by the timings of reports, deaths are on a rising trend signalling the onset of the second wave of the pandemic around the first week of September.
• Overall, Russia is now experiencing the second wave of COVID19 that started around the last week of August (in terms of new cases numbers).

Russia recorded an average of 9,474 new cases per day in the last 7 days, up on 7,140 in the prior seven days period. In attributed daily deaths, current 7-days average is 156 against prior 7-days average of 128.

Here are peer comparatives:

8/10/20: COVID19 Update: U.S. vs EU27

 Updating data on pandemic development through 07/10/2020 for the U.S. and EU27:

• The EU27 are now experiencing a second wave of infections, while the U.S. new infections rate has moderated off the prior peaks, although moderation is relatively weak and daily cases are highly volatile.
• As the result, in the last 10 days, EU27 new case numbers have surpassed the U.S. on 4 occasions and deaths on 2 occasions. Over the last 30 days, numbers of new cases in the EU27 exceeded those in the U.S. over 9 days, while numbers of daily deaths were higher in the EU27 on four occasions.

Daily averages for each month of the pandemic are summarized in the table below, while daily counts with 7 days average are shown in the charts:

• The U.S. has a vastly higher death rate per 1 million population than the EU27 rate: current death rate per 1 million of population in the U.S. is 642.5; and current death rate per 1 million of population in the EU27 is 335.2
• Put differently, current U.S. death rate per capita is 92 percent above that for the EU27.
• Overall counts of deaths in the U.S. remain above the EU27, since July 12. Current excess gap is at +62,928.
• Adjusted for population differences, the U.S. has 100,517 more deaths than the EU27. Adjusted for later onset of the pandemic in the U.S., America's death toll from COVID19 to-date is 114,621 higher than that of the EU27.
• The 7-day moving averages of new cases in the EU27 and the U.S. are now almost identical. The EU27 is already in the second wave of the pandemic, but the U.S. is showing signs of the second wave starting, with a significant uptick in the 7-days average since September 12 lows.
• Both, the EU27 and the U.S. deaths counts are now running above the levels at which Winter 2020 lockdowns were imposed.

Meanwhile, American leadership is switching to a new strategy in addressing COVID19, called 'Don't Panic: Get Yerself Covided! Suckers!' https://twitter.com/i/status/1313267615083761665. Which totally makes sense for more than 70 million Americans who cannot afford COVID19 treatment without filing for bankruptcy, and another 30-40 million Americans who cannot medically handle COVID19 because of existing conditions. 

7/10/20: COVID19 Update: Countries with > 100,000 cases

 

Updating tables for the countries with more than 100,000 cases of COVID19:

• There are now 40 countries with >100,000 cases and 12 countries with > 500,000 cases. 
• The U.S. continues to lead the world in the number of cases and number of deaths: the country accounts for 4.3 percent of world population, 21% of diagnosed COVID19 cases and 20% of attributed deaths.
• EU27 accounts for 5.9% of the world's population, 7% of all cases, but 14% of world's deaths.
• BRIICS+Turkey account for 46.5% of world's population, 40% of world's cases and 30% of attributed deaths.
• 8 of the EU27 countries are on the list of countries with > 100,000 cases.
• In overall performance rankings, the U.S. is ranked within the group of 'worse-than-average performers' (8th worst in the group of 40), while the EU27 ranks within-average (18th worst performer, if it were a country), the UK ranks 9th worst performer, with Peru remaining the hardest hit country of all countries with > 100,000 cases, with Bolivia second and Belgium third.

7/10/20: COVID19 Update: Worldwide Cases and Deaths

 

Updating new data for COVID19 new cases and deaths through October 7, 2020 (ECDC data timeline):

Globally, we remain in the first wave of the pandemic both in terms of new cases arrivals and death counts:

What the numbers above are telling us:

• New cases arrivals trend at 298,196 per day over the last 7 days, albeit with increasing daily volatility due to a number of countries with large case numbers switching to less regular reporting of cases in recent weeks. The daily average for the last 7 days is in excess of the 30-days average of 286,123 and well above the historical average of 130,960. In terms of new cases, therefore, we are still in the first wave of the pandemic, and now past the first period of moderation in the infections spread that took place from, roughly during August.
• Daily deaths counts are currently at 5,399 for the last 7 days, which is lower than the 30-days average of 5,642, but still well above the historical average of 3,848. Some observers have noted in recent weeks that the deaths curve is down somewhat on the local peak attained around the first week of August. The decline, however, is very shallow and is driven not only by the improved treatment and detection, but also by the changing demographic of new cases (younger and healthier patients becoming impacted). There is, most likely, a residual issue of changes in geographies of new cases, that also impacts reporting and assignment of deaths. In simple terms, core data shows no encouraging trends so far in terms of daily deaths counts: the pandemic's Wave 1 continues. 

The above analysis is reflected in the growth rates. Stripping out some daily volatility, here are 7-day rolling average changes in both deaths and new cases:

The worrying trend in both series shown above is: 

• We are now past the prior moderation in the rates of growth in both cases and deaths, with the start of September marking a clear uptick in daily growth rates in both series.
• Current daily rates of growth are running in line with past peak periods averages (post-April) for new deaths, and above past peak averages for new cases.
• October (to-date) growth rates in both series are not only double-digits high, but are well above June-August averages and historical averages. They are also stronger than September averages. Tables below summarise these facts:

I will update other data sets on COVID19 pandemic evolution in subsequent posts, but the global trends clearly show that we are in a continued state of global pandemic still raging unabated.

Note: for those keen on looking at more recent changes, see my prior post on the same subject here: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/09/25920-covid19-update-worldwide-cases.html. 

4/10/20: Technological Deepening Is Coming for Our Jobs

 

In my recent article for The Currency (link here: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/09/my-recent-article-on-potential-long.html), I argued that COVID19 will act as an accelerator of technological capital deepening in the modern economies, with a resulting faster displacement of workers (including highly skilled ones) by technology. 

McKinsey survey of the developing trends in businesses strategic responses to the pandemic confirms my hypothesis:

Per above, across all sectors, and (peer charts below) across specific sectors, businesses are planning to prioritize deployment of technology in addressing long-term change in response to the current pandemic. 

McKinsey state that "Fifty-five percent of leaders anticipate that at least half of their organization’s workforce will be fully or partially remote postcrisis. While the expectations vary widely by industry—from 69 percent predicting this level of remote work in technology, telecommunications, and media to 43 percent in advanced industries—even in the industries where manufacturing, patient care, and sales transactions often require people at offices, stores, plants, and other company facilities, a significant portion of the workforce may be partially or fully remote." Source: https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/organization/our-insights/the-need-for-speed-in-the-post-covid-19-era-and-how-to-achieve-it. And "Our survey results show that executives are focused on three courses of action ... making good decisions more quickly, improving communication and collaboration, and making greater use of technology."