3/2/21: The Cost of Trump's Failures to Act on Covid19: Case of Housing Market Interventions

 

COVID-19 pandemic has been associated with a range of deep and dramatic policy interventions, including rolling lockdowns, monetary and fiscal policies interventions, wide ranges of subsidies and supports, but also measures relating to addressing the risk to households and companies arising from the pre-pandemic financial commitments. 

One of the most, potentially, impactful measures has been adoption of a range of policy interventions that aimed to reduce the impact of income shocks on housing availability. In addition to targeting reduction of financial burden of the pandemic shocks on households, the measures also targeted the objective of lowering the risk of spread of the disease via promotion of housing stability.

A recent paper, by Jowers, Kay and Timmins, Christopher D. and Bhavsar, Nrupen and Hu, Qihui and Marshall, Julia, titled "Housing Precarity & the Covid-19 Pandemic: Impacts of Utility Disconnection and Eviction Moratoria on Infections and Deaths Across US Counties" (January 2021, NBER Working Paper No. w28394: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3772641) looked into the effectiveness of housing markets interventions in the latter context. 

Per authors, "housing precarity, which includes both the risk of eviction and utility disconnections or shut-offs, reduces a person’s ability to abide by social distancing orders and comply with hygiene recommendations."

The authors found that 

1. "...policies that limit evictions are found to reduce COVID-19 infections by 3.8% and reduce deaths by 11%.
2. "Moratoria on utility disconnections reduce COVID-19 infections by 4.4% and mortality rates by 7.4%."

"Had such policies been in place across all counties (i.e., adopted as federal policy) from early March 2020 through the end of November 2020, ... policies that limit evictions could have reduced COVID-19 infections by 14.2% and deaths by 40.7%. (emphasis is mine) [While], for moratoria on utility disconnections, COVID-19 infections rates could have been reduced by 8.7% and deaths by 14.8%."

These are genuinely huge numbers. Assuming the effects are non-additive, the lower end estimate of human losses to Covid19 pandemic due to the Trump Administration's failure to act coherently and resolutely in imposing similar policies to support households' tenancy in rental and mortgages markets across the U.S. is in the range of > 40 percent. If the effects are additive, the magnitude of the preventable deaths rises to well over 50 percent.

4/12/20: COVID19 Update: U.S. vs EU27

EU27 vs U.S. comparatives for COVID19 pandemic to-date:

• The U.S. retains higher death rate per 1 million population (844.6), than the EU27 (624.4). 
• Current U.S. death rate per capita is 35% above the EU27, though this gap is still closing (it was 42% a week ago).
• Gross counts of deaths in the U.S. >> the EU27 over 12/07 - 1/12.  This was reversed on 2/12, with total EU27 deaths currently at 278,914 vs the U.S. 276,316. 
• Adjusting deaths to account for a 1 week lag in the onset of pandemic in the U.S., relative to the EU27, current U.S. deaths are 21,435 above those in the EU27
• Adjusted for population and pandemic timing differences, the U.S. deaths are 77,048 above those in the EU27.
• While the EU27 led the U.S. in new deaths and case counts through 20/11, since then, the U.S. has retaken the lead in new cases counts. 
• Daily deaths counts in the U.S. are now expected to start exceeding those in the EU27 once again.

Starting with 20/11/2020, the U.S. once again overtaken the EU27 in the number of daily reported cases, based on 7-days moving average:

The data above is yet to reflect massive potential contagion event of Thanksgiving travel in the U.S. and the related movements of students from and back to the colleges and universities that allowed in-person teaching in the Fall 2020 semester.

Shorter lags between contagion and diagnosis of COVID19 cases imply longer lags between new cases arrivals and hospitalisations, which in turn further elongates the lags between new cases detection and associated deaths counts. This is clearly evident from comparing the following figure dynamics with prior figure dynamics:

Put differently, current better performance by the U.S. compared to the EU27 in the second wave of the pandemic in terms of daily deaths counts is unlikely to remain for much longer. EU27 daily deaths trend appears to have peaked about a week ago, while the U.S. deaths trend remains upward-running. 

Little comfort for the wicked... right? 

As the chart above shows, even with more favourable deaths dynamics during the current wave of the pandemic, the U.S. deaths per capita remain horrifically above those in the EU27. Worse, over the last four days, we are seeing some tentative signs that the EU27 daily deaths counts might be moderating. Meanwhile, the opposite is taking place in the U.S.

18/11/20: COVID19 Update: U.S. vs EU27

Comparatives for the pandemic development across the EU27 vs U.S.:

Thanks to an absolutely savage second wave of the pandemic, EU27 is now closing the gap with the U.S. in terms of total deaths, both in absolute terms and in per capita terms:

• Deaths per capita: the U.S. has overtaken the EU27 since May 18, and the trend for the U.S. continued to be worse than that for the EU27 until early October.
• EU27 death rate per capita has effectively flattened-out at around 308 per 1 million prior to August 2, but has been rising once again since then (498.1 currently).
• U.S. deaths per capita continue to increase (760.1 currently).
• The U.S. & EU27 are in 3rd (U.S.) and 2nd (EU27) waves of infections. Since Oct 1st, EU27 cases have surpassed the U.S. on all but 3 days & deaths on all but 16 days

The trends are horrifying, albeit in the EU27 we are now seeing potential decline in cases from the second peak. The U.S. appears to remain on the increasing trendline in terms of new cases: 

As the U.S. 3rd wave of new cases is blowing up, and the EU27 2nd wave appears to be subsiding, we are likely to see deaths accelerating once again in the U.S. and falling in the EU27, so the deaths gap between the U.S. and the EU27 is likely to revert back growing excess U.S. deaths.

• Overall counts of deaths in the U.S. are now above the EU27, since July 12. 
• Current excess gap is at +46,983, which is down on peak excess deaths gap of 68,152 attained a month ago. 
• Adjusted for population and pandemic timing differences, the gap is 113,081. Put differently, 113,081 Americans would have been alive today were the U.S. responses to the pandemic similar to those adopted by the EU27.

Summary statistics really paint an awful picture: 

• November has been thee worst month so far in this entire pandemic in terms of daily cases increases for both the EU27 and the U.S. 
• In terms of deaths counts, the U.S. is still lagging behind the EU27, but November to-date is now ranks as the second worst month in daily deaths counts in the U.S. and the worst month in the EU27.

For more EU27 - U.S. comparatives, including comparatives to other countries, see: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/11/181120-covid19-update-countries-with.html. 

3/11/20: COVID19 Update: U.S. vs EU27

EU27 vs U.S. comparatives for data through November 3:

• The U.S. has a vastly higher death rate per 1 million population than the EU27 rate: 
• Current death rate per 1 million of population in the U.S. is 707.7
• Current death rate per 1 million of population in the EU27 is 396.8
• Put differently, current U.S. death rate per capita is 78 percent above that for the EU27, though this gap is now closing (it was 86% a week ago).
• Overall counts of deaths in the U.S. are now above the EU27, since July 12
• Current excess gap is at +65,585. 
• Adjusted for population and pandemic timing differences, the gap is 123,449. 
• The U.S. & the EU27 are in 2nd waves of infections. October 1st to-date, EU27 daily cases have surpassed the U.S. on all but 2 days & deaths on 18 occasions

Across the board:

• EU27 second wave is savage in terms of new cases counts (more than four times the rate of the peak wave 1) and deaths counts are climbing up at a fast pace. On the current trajectory (note: this is not a formal forecast, but a point of warning), the EU27 deaths will be testing 3,000 per day counts mark within this month. 
• U.S. is in a third or a second wave of the pandemic - depending on how one counts the 'waves' - in terms of new cases, but is yet to post consistent uptick in deaths. Nonetheless, in the last 10 days, deaths counts have also ticked up. Given that new cases in the U.S. are currently running at above thee last wave peak levels, we can expect continued increases in daily deaths counts too, albeit with longer lag on account of earlier detections and younger demographics of new cases. 

Here are some really shameful stats, positioning EU27 and U.S. performance in the context of all countries with > 100,000 cases:

Out of 51 countries with >100,000 cases + EU27, 

• The U.S. is ranked 6th worst in terms of cases per capita, 10th worst in terms of deaths per capita, and 24th worst in terms of deaths per 1,000 confirmed infections. Across all key metrics of the pandemic, the U.S. ranks 8th worst in the world.
• The EU27 is ranked 20h worst in terms of cases per capita, 19th worst in terms of deaths per capita, and 20th worst in terms of deaths per 1,000 confirmed infections. Across all key metrics of the pandemic, the U.S. ranks 20th worst in the world.

Peer-comparatives:

27/10/20: COVID19 Update: U.S. vs EU27

 Quick update to the U.S. vs EU27 charts for COVID19 pandemic:

Key stats:

• The U.S. has a vastly higher death rate per 1 million population than the EU27 rate: 
• Current death rate per 1 million of population in the U.S. is 690.0
• Current death rate per 1 million of population in the EU27 is 370.3
• Put differently, current U.S. death rate per capita is 86 percent above that for the EU27, though this gap is now slowly closing (it was 90% a week ago).

• Overall counts of deaths in the U.S. are now above the EU27, since July 12. Current excess gap is at +67,604. Adjusted for population and pandemic timing differences, the gap is 114,869. 
• The EU27 are now experiencing a second wave of infections. As the result, over October to-date, EU27 new case numbers have surpassed the U.S. in all but 2 days and deaths on 11 occasions

Couple of summary tables:

I covered a recent study from the Columbia University on U.S. excess deaths here: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/10/251020-covid19-us-excess-deaths-are.html. 

25/10/20: COVID19: U.S. Excess Deaths are 130,000 at a lower end of estimates

I have been running EU vs U.S. comparatives for COVID19 pandemic dynamics for some time now, and as those reading this blog would know,  some months ago I added an estimate - based on mortality figures - of the excess U.S. deaths compared to the EU27. These currently - by my estimate - stand at 114,621 (see latest estimate here: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/10/231020-covid19-update-us-vs-eu27.html). 

My estimate is crude. It is based on timings, population size and mortality rate adjustments. 

A more accurate recent estimate has been provided by the Columbia University study (https://resiliencesystem.org/columbia-university-says-trump-could-have-avoided-over-130000-covid-19-deaths-more-robust-pandemic) that puts the number at 130,000-210,000 'avoidable deaths'.  That is some range, of course. Per study: "If "the U.S. had followed Canadian policies and protocols, there might have only been 85,192 U.S. deaths – making more than 132,500 American deaths 'avoidable,'" the authors wrote. "If the U.S. response had mirrored that of Germany, the U.S. may have only had 38,457 deaths – leaving 179,260 avoidable deaths."

One way or the other, there are at least 100,000+ Americans dead because of the completely shambolic public health system and policy responses by the current Federal and State leaderships in the U.S. 

Columbia study seems to nail some of these factors: "The country's disproportionate death toll stems from delayed federal action, an insufficient testing regimen, a lack of consistent mask-wearing guidance, and the failure of top officials, notably Trump, to model best practices". Alas, predictably (mythology of the American culture), it misses the elephant in the room: the U.S. healthcare system itself. American approach to distributing access to healthcare based on private insurance (plus Medicare and Medicaid) is leaving tens of millions of Americans outside the basic safety net. Those without insurance as well as countless more with the atrociously large deductibles and co-pays are too afraid to present themselves to the hospitals designed to bankrupt people of modest means to seek early support and help. It matters little how much the U.S. authorities test the public (and, yes, tests are highly rationed, still, despite all the bluster from the White House), if people do not seek help in fear of being destroyed financially. 

In 2020, the average annual deductible for single, individual coverage is $4,364 and $8,439 for family coverage. Co-pay normally ranges 10-40% of the bill, though it is more complicated, since there are various caps and step-downs in co-payments. (https://www.ehealthinsurance.com/resources/individual-and-family/how-much-does-individual-health-insurance-cost#:~:text=Deductibles%20and%20cost%2Dsharing%20expenses,and%20%248%2C439%20for%20family%20coverage.)

The typical American household has an average of $8,863 in  a bank or credit union account. There are serious variations by age and type of household, with couples 34 and younger, couples without children have an average of $4,727 in savings, while single people without children have an average of $2,729 in savings. Couples with children between the age of 35 and 44 have an average of $10,399, couples aged 45-54 with children average $15,589. (https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/11/how-much-money-americans-have-in-their-savings-accounts-at-every-age.html)

Meanwhile, the median charge for COVID-19 inpatient care was $45,683 for people aged 51 to 60 and $34,662 for those in the 23 to 30 age bracket, according to a recent study. This was the median billed to people without insurance or those who were forced to be treated out of network. The highest average allowed amount paid to the provider under an insurance plan was $24,012 for people aged 51 to 60 and, at its lowest, $17,094 for people above age 70. (https://www.thehealthcareloop.com/hospitalized-care-for-covid-19-averages-34662-to-45683-varying-by-age/) 

So a person visit for COVID19 treatment, counting lost wages, would wipe out between 1/2 and all of the savings held by average household. Contagion within the family would be a near insolvency event.

Anyone surprised American system is killing the U.S. citizens and residents?

23/10/20: COVID19 Update: U.S. vs EU27

 Things are running out of control in the EU27 and remain out of control in the U.S. of A. Here are the latest daily numbers:

Overall:

• The U.S. has a vastly higher death rate per 1 million population than the EU27 rate: 
• Current death rate per 1 million of population in the U.S. is 681.7
• Current death rate per 1 million of population in the EU27 is 361
• Put differently, current U.S. death rate per capita is 89 percent above that for the EU27, although this gap is now slowly closing, down from 91% in the prior update
• Overall counts of deaths in the U.S. are now above the EU27, since July 12
• Current excess gap is at +67,397. Adjusted for population and pandemic timing differences, the gap is 114,621
• The EU27 are now experiencing a second wave of infections. As the result, over October to-date, EU27 new case numbers have surpassed the U.S. in all but 2 days and deaths on 7 occasions

Monthly averages tell the story:

• In the U.S. pandemic continues to rage and re-accelerating from August-September slowdown. Deaths are lagging, but still running at elevated levels and are more recently rising once again.
• In the EU27, the pandemic is back with more than a vengeance: daily new cases counts are vastly above anything we have seen in the first wave. Death counts are lagging behind the prior peak, but a re massively above June-September numbers and climbing up.

Shorter-term averages confirm the above analysis:

These dire numbers come on top of already substantial levels of past infections, especially in the U.S., with improved testing and tracing, with improved treatments of cases, with better surveillance and controls in the places of higher concentration of more vulnerable population groups and with all the lessons allegedly learned from the first wave of the pandemic. The fact that we are seeing the massive second wave emerging in Europe and re-acceleration of the trend in the U.S. clearly shows that we have no control over the pandemic.

Expect things to get worse. Much worse. The U.S. is now forecasting 500,000 deaths by the end of 2021. The EU27 has no forecasts, but I will not be surprised if the EU27 pandemic development catches up with that in the U.S. These risks are especially salient in the light of widespread denial and fatigue sweeping both populations when it comes to any serious public health responses to the crisis. 

16/10/20: COVID19 Update: U.S. vs EU27

 

In two previous posts, I have updated data for COVID19 pandemic through October 16 for:

• Global cases and deaths: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/10/161020-covid19-update-worldwide-cases.html
• Countries with > 100,000 cases: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/10/161020-covid19-update-countries-with.html

Now, as usual, EU27 vs U.S. comparatives.

Things are getting once again very serious in Europe, of course, which makes this update a bit of change on prior.

So, let's start with cases and daily deaths:

• The EU27 are now experiencing a full-blown second wave of infections. As the result, over October 1-16, EU27 new case numbers have surpassed the U.S. on 14 occasions and deaths on 3 occasions.
• The above development is extremely alarming. As the first chart shows, EU27 is setting new records in total numbers of daily cases, records that are running at a rate of 3 times higher daily new cases counts that at the peak of the first wave of the pandemic. This will, inevitably, translate into higher levels of deaths in weeks to come. More ominously, current rates of new cases arrivals in the EU27 are bound to overwhelm the healthcare systems of the member states.
• Meanwhile, the U.S. is also seeing increases in new cases, having enjoyed a temporary and short relief from the peak of the second wave around the end of the second week in September. Since then, the U.S. new cases are running at accelerating rates once again.
• In other words, it is time to call the third wave of the pandemic in the U.S.
• Deaths are also on a rising trend, in Europe, while lagging new cases explosion in the U.S.

Table below shows averages by month of both deaths and cases:

• EU27 daily deaths counts are running at the rates more than double of September, more than 3.5 times the rates of August. October so far is the fourth deadliest month in this pandemic for the European Union.
• U.S. daily deaths are the pandemic lows, but still significantly above those in the EEU27.

Overall:

• The U.S. has a vastly higher death rate per 1 million population than the EU27 rate:  Current death rate per 1 million of population in the U.S. is 665.4 against the current death rate per 1 million of population in the EU27 is 347.9
• Put differently, current U.S. death rate per capita is 91 percent above that for the EU27. 
• Overall counts of deaths in the U.S. are now above the EU27, since July 12. Current excess gap is at +66,037.
• Currently, adjusted for population and pandemic timing differences, the U.S. has 114,621 more deaths than the EU27. 
• Meanwhile, owing to the second wave of the pandemic raging in Europe, EU27 member states are starting to go back into lockdown management mode. 

8/10/20: COVID19 Update: U.S. vs EU27

 Updating data on pandemic development through 07/10/2020 for the U.S. and EU27:

• The EU27 are now experiencing a second wave of infections, while the U.S. new infections rate has moderated off the prior peaks, although moderation is relatively weak and daily cases are highly volatile.
• As the result, in the last 10 days, EU27 new case numbers have surpassed the U.S. on 4 occasions and deaths on 2 occasions. Over the last 30 days, numbers of new cases in the EU27 exceeded those in the U.S. over 9 days, while numbers of daily deaths were higher in the EU27 on four occasions.

Daily averages for each month of the pandemic are summarized in the table below, while daily counts with 7 days average are shown in the charts:

• The U.S. has a vastly higher death rate per 1 million population than the EU27 rate: current death rate per 1 million of population in the U.S. is 642.5; and current death rate per 1 million of population in the EU27 is 335.2
• Put differently, current U.S. death rate per capita is 92 percent above that for the EU27.
• Overall counts of deaths in the U.S. remain above the EU27, since July 12. Current excess gap is at +62,928.
• Adjusted for population differences, the U.S. has 100,517 more deaths than the EU27. Adjusted for later onset of the pandemic in the U.S., America's death toll from COVID19 to-date is 114,621 higher than that of the EU27.
• The 7-day moving averages of new cases in the EU27 and the U.S. are now almost identical. The EU27 is already in the second wave of the pandemic, but the U.S. is showing signs of the second wave starting, with a significant uptick in the 7-days average since September 12 lows.
• Both, the EU27 and the U.S. deaths counts are now running above the levels at which Winter 2020 lockdowns were imposed.

Meanwhile, American leadership is switching to a new strategy in addressing COVID19, called 'Don't Panic: Get Yerself Covided! Suckers!' https://twitter.com/i/status/1313267615083761665. Which totally makes sense for more than 70 million Americans who cannot afford COVID19 treatment without filing for bankruptcy, and another 30-40 million Americans who cannot medically handle COVID19 because of existing conditions.