Saturday, October 24, 2020

23/10/20: COVID19 Update: U.S. vs EU27

 Things are running out of control in the EU27 and remain out of control in the U.S. of A. Here are the latest daily numbers:


  • The U.S. has a vastly higher death rate per 1 million population than the EU27 rate: 
    • Current death rate per 1 million of population in the U.S. is 681.7
    • Current death rate per 1 million of population in the EU27 is 361
    • Put differently, current U.S. death rate per capita is 89 percent above that for the EU27, although this gap is now slowly closing, down from 91% in the prior update
  • Overall counts of deaths in the U.S. are now above the EU27, since July 12
    • Current excess gap is at +67,397. Adjusted for population and pandemic timing differences, the gap is 114,621
  • The EU27 are now experiencing a second wave of infections. As the result, over October to-date, EU27 new case numbers have surpassed the U.S. in all but 2 days and deaths on 7 occasions

Monthly averages tell the story:
  • In the U.S. pandemic continues to rage and re-accelerating from August-September slowdown. Deaths are lagging, but still running at elevated levels and are more recently rising once again.
  • In the EU27, the pandemic is back with more than a vengeance: daily new cases counts are vastly above anything we have seen in the first wave. Death counts are lagging behind the prior peak, but a re massively above June-September numbers and climbing up.
Shorter-term averages confirm the above analysis:

These dire numbers come on top of already substantial levels of past infections, especially in the U.S., with improved testing and tracing, with improved treatments of cases, with better surveillance and controls in the places of higher concentration of more vulnerable population groups and with all the lessons allegedly learned from the first wave of the pandemic. The fact that we are seeing the massive second wave emerging in Europe and re-acceleration of the trend in the U.S. clearly shows that we have no control over the pandemic.

Expect things to get worse. Much worse. The U.S. is now forecasting 500,000 deaths by the end of 2021. The EU27 has no forecasts, but I will not be surprised if the EU27 pandemic development catches up with that in the U.S. These risks are especially salient in the light of widespread denial and fatigue sweeping both populations when it comes to any serious public health responses to the crisis. 

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