Saturday, October 17, 2020

17/10/20: COVID19 Update: Russia


Russian pandemic numbers are getting seriously out of control, once again, and this outrun was pretty much predictable based on early eit from serious restrictions.

Russia managed to lower, but not crush, pandemic pressures between the first wave peak of the second week of May 2020 and the start of July. By mid-August, both new cases and daily deaths counts fell to their post-peak lows. However, starting with September, the pandemic evolved into a second wave, with exponential increase in new cases through today, and deaths following the same trend path.

Here is a summary table of the second wave dynamics:

And here are Russia comparatives in comparison to some of the peers in the table of countries with more than 100,000 cases:

At current rates of new cases arrivals, Russia will still be able to cope with the pandemic from the public health system capacity perspective, but absent strict lockdowns, the new wave is likely to continue expanding. Upcoming winter weather is likely to keep the acceleration pressures on the new cases and with this, Russian hospitals capacity could be severely tested comes mid- to late-November.  

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