3/11/20: COVID19 Update: U.S. vs EU27

EU27 vs U.S. comparatives for data through November 3:

• The U.S. has a vastly higher death rate per 1 million population than the EU27 rate: 
• Current death rate per 1 million of population in the U.S. is 707.7
• Current death rate per 1 million of population in the EU27 is 396.8
• Put differently, current U.S. death rate per capita is 78 percent above that for the EU27, though this gap is now closing (it was 86% a week ago).
• Overall counts of deaths in the U.S. are now above the EU27, since July 12
• Current excess gap is at +65,585. 
• Adjusted for population and pandemic timing differences, the gap is 123,449. 
• The U.S. & the EU27 are in 2nd waves of infections. October 1st to-date, EU27 daily cases have surpassed the U.S. on all but 2 days & deaths on 18 occasions

Across the board:

• EU27 second wave is savage in terms of new cases counts (more than four times the rate of the peak wave 1) and deaths counts are climbing up at a fast pace. On the current trajectory (note: this is not a formal forecast, but a point of warning), the EU27 deaths will be testing 3,000 per day counts mark within this month. 
• U.S. is in a third or a second wave of the pandemic - depending on how one counts the 'waves' - in terms of new cases, but is yet to post consistent uptick in deaths. Nonetheless, in the last 10 days, deaths counts have also ticked up. Given that new cases in the U.S. are currently running at above thee last wave peak levels, we can expect continued increases in daily deaths counts too, albeit with longer lag on account of earlier detections and younger demographics of new cases. 

Here are some really shameful stats, positioning EU27 and U.S. performance in the context of all countries with > 100,000 cases:

Out of 51 countries with >100,000 cases + EU27, 

• The U.S. is ranked 6th worst in terms of cases per capita, 10th worst in terms of deaths per capita, and 24th worst in terms of deaths per 1,000 confirmed infections. Across all key metrics of the pandemic, the U.S. ranks 8th worst in the world.
• The EU27 is ranked 20h worst in terms of cases per capita, 19th worst in terms of deaths per capita, and 20th worst in terms of deaths per 1,000 confirmed infections. Across all key metrics of the pandemic, the U.S. ranks 20th worst in the world.

Peer-comparatives: