Tuesday, November 5, 2013

5/11/2013: BlackRock Institute survey: EMEA October 2013

BlackRock Investment Institute released its latest Economic Cycle Survey for EMEA region.
 A note on latest survey results for North America & Western Europe is available here.

"With caveat on the depth of country-level responses, which can differ widely, this month’s EMEA Economic Cycle Survey presented a bullish outlook for the region."

"The consensus of respondents describe Slovenia, the Ukraine, Croatia and Russia currently to be in a recessionary state, with an even split of economists gauging Egypt to be in expansion or contraction. Over the next 2 quarters, the consensus shifts toward expansion for Russia, Croatia and Egypt and an even split between expansion and contraction for the Ukraine."

"At the 12 month horizon, the positive theme continues with the consensus expecting all EMEA countries to strengthen or remain the same, with the exception of Russia." Russian sentiment has deteriorated significantly in recent months.

"Globally, respondents remain positive on the global growth cycle, with a net 73% of 57 respondents expecting a strengthening world economy over the next 12 months – a 13% decrease from the net of 86% figure in last month. The consensus of economists project a shift from early cycle to mid-cycle expansion over the next 6 months."

Note: these views reflect opinions of survey respondents, not that of the BlackRock Investment Institute. Also note: cover of countries is relatively uneven, with some countries being assessed by a relatively small number of experts.

Here are two summary charts:

Note: Red dot represents Slovakia, Poland, Israel, Kazakhstan, and South Africa. 

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