Saturday, September 15, 2012

15/9/2012: Irish Services Activity July 2012

Recent release of the monthly Services sectors activity index for Ireland highlights the stabilizing nature of the current activity in the economy, since the end of Q1 2012. Here are some details:

Overall seasonally-adjusted monthly services activity rose 1.2% in July 2012 m/m and was up 7.8% y/y. Index 3mo MA through July is at 104.9 ahead of the 3mo MA through  March 2012 (101.6) and well ahead of 98.9 reading in 3mo to July 2011. Year on year increase of 7.8% is the strongest since November 2010. (Note: index is being compiled only since October 2010, so trend comparatives are against weak position. Index is set at 100=2009).

Here's the chart summarizing index levels and y/y growth rates:

By-sector activity:
  • Wholesale and Retail Trade (+3.4% m/m and +8.0% y/y), 
  • Business Services (+2.5% m/m and 3.1% y/y), 
  • Accommodation and Food Service Activities (+1.2% m/m and no change y/y) and 
  • Information and Communication (+0.1% m/m and +16.3 y/y) 
  • Transportation and Storage (-3.5% m/m and 8.0% y/y), and 
  • Other Services (-2.2% m/m and +0.9% y/y).

Chart to illustrate:

3mo MA through July 2012 are also encouraging:
  • Wholesale & Retail Trade at 109.7, up on 107.8 3 months ago and on 103.4 a year ago
  • Information & Communications at 112.9 well ahead of 109.4 in 3mo through April and on 99.6 recorded in 3 months through July 2011
  • Business Services at 103.3, strongly up on 98.4 in 3 months through April, but unchanged y/y
  • Transportation & Storage at 109.0, up on 104.0 in 3mo through April 2012 and on 98.2 a year ago
  • Accommodation and Food remain the lagging sector despite Government efforts to stimulate it at 89.0 in 3mo average through July 2012 slightly up on 87.1 in 3mo through April 2012 and down on 90.3 in 3mo through July 2011.
  • Other Services are also relatively flat, but with a slight upside at 74.3 in 3mo through July 2012 compared against previous 3mo average of 72.4 and 3mo through July 2011 average of 72.8.
Overall, some good news here and a continuation on the trend highlighted a month ago.

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