Friday, June 25, 2010

Economics 25/06/2010: eurozone leading indicators down

Eurocoin, CEPR-Bank of Italy leading economic indicator of economic activity in the Eurozone is down for the fourth month in a row, signaling continued pressure on economic growth:
As the result, I am revising my forecast for Eurozone growth for Q2 2010 to between 0.2% and 0% with the risk to the downside from that.

Negative weights coming from declining industrial production activity and composite PMIs, falling consumer sentiment in Germany, France, Italy and Spain, and equity markets declines. Robust growth in exports provides sole positive support.

1 comment:

laughingbear said...


I might be wrong here, and I stand to be corrected, but would it be so wrong to think that all you guys with economic brains and the heart in the right place, you have one thing in common.

Regardless your mathematical skills, which you beyond doubts are double blessed with , regardless your very best intentions, at the end, are you not dependant on Infromation that is already cooked, cooked liked the books from AIB, BoI, Anglo etc.?

This is not to say that you would not be able to see through smoke screens, and may be it is exactly this what differenciates the economically interested from a chap who studies it all his life, but loet me ask you, Cntral banks stats,EuroCoin, Eurostat, fill in whatever you see fit, is it not that their data already is intentionally washed to suit a purpose?