- AIB €3.2-3.5bn in equity capital post-Nama;
- BofI €2.0-2.6bn;
- Anglo €4.5-5.7bn;
- INBS/EBS & IL&P €1.1-1.2bn.
- Total system demand for equity will be in the range of €9.7-12.4bn.
- AIB will require €3.0-3.5bn in equity capital;
- BofI will need €2.2-2.6bn;
- Anglo will need up to €5.7bn;
- INBS will require total of €1.2-2bn.
On retail sales side: October figures released last week show continued weakness across consumer spending - despite some bounce up in car sales (+1.4 mom). Total sales fell 0.3% mom and ex-motors sales declined 1.7% erasing all gains made in September. Core sales 9e-motors) are now at 2005 levels down 13% from the November 2007 peak. Despite seasonal shopping going into Christmas, 'other goods' sales (including toys, jewelry, sports wear etc) posted a drop of 4%. Furniture and lighting posted a fall of 3.2% and would have probably fallen even further if not for Ikea. This, of course implies that a rational forecast for 2010 should be in the region of 3% fall in retail sales, compounding the 7% drop in 2009 and leaving retail sales at some 84% on 2007 peak. More urgently, staying on the established trend, December retail sales are risking to sink 10-15% on 2008, which might trigger a new wave of layoffs in January-February 2010.
Services Exports data also released last week shows that our services trade deficit has widened in 2008 relative to 2007 by 370% as imports rose much faster than exports.
The detailed data clearly shows that we lack geographic diversification of exports in most services, with 76% of our services exports (allocated to specific geographic destinations) destined for Europe. And we are failing to benefit from substantial cost savings from outsourcing services to Asia - with just 2.4% of our services imports coming from Asia (Asia accounted for 7.9% of our exports of services).
In higher value added services:
- Virtually all insurance services exports went to Europe (69%) and the US (22.1%);
- Financial services exports went to Europe (67.2%), the US (10.45%), and Asia (10.3%), but some 12% of financial services were traded into offshore centres;
- Computer services posted a massive surplus, as usual, with 86.7% of all exports flowing to Europe, and just 1.07% to the US, while Asia received 8.7%;
- Other business services exports - comprising a number of high value-added subcategories - went to Europe (69.7%), US (only 4.5%) and Asia (12.9%).
I export services to Asia (IT). I do so through a Dutch company which is itself a subsidiary of an Irish company.
I know of others with similar arrangements (i.e. they are part of an EMEA operation that is headquartered in another european country, so in first-hop terms, they are exporting to there).
As such, my Asian exports look like they are European exports, I believe. Could this be some explanation for the apparent lack of diversification?
Post a Comment