Absent MNCs-led sectors in our economy, we would be running massive deficits even accounting for the wholesale collapse of consumer imports. And note that as our own economy is shrinking, net contribution of MNC's own trade balance to our GDP is rising in importance.
Let's look at geography:
- Overall exports are declining faster in September than they were over the last 9 months
- Exports to Great Britain, EU overall, and Euro area are falling faster in September 2009 than over the first 9 months of 2009
- Exports to France are falling slower in September 2009 than over the first 9 months of 2009
- Exports to Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain and Sweden are falling faster in September 2009 than over the first 9 months of 2009
- Exports to Australia, China, Japan, Switzerland, and the USA are significantly improving over September 2009 relative to the first 9 months of 2009 – a strange result, given these exports are subject to dollar – euro exchange rate fluctuations.
And one caveat - the cases where dramatic improvements in trade balance do not match those in exports are, of course, reflective of the collapse in imports.