U.S. is now in a full-blown third wave of the pandemic both in terms of daily case counts and deaths, and the EU27 is in a full-blown second wave:
Summary statistics:
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U.S. is now in a full-blown third wave of the pandemic both in terms of daily case counts and deaths, and the EU27 is in a full-blown second wave:
Summary statistics:
The pandemic is accelerating world-wide and the death toll is now rising at an alarming rate:
Global second wave of the pandemic is substantially more deadly (in absolute numbers) than the prior wave.
My article on the U.S. Election is now live on The Currency: https://thecurrency.news/articles/28395/the-blue-wave-turned-into-a-purple-sludge-while-populism-and-partisanship-replace-ideas-and-ideals/.
In the earlier post, I covered BRIC economies manufacturing PMIs for October: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/11/31120-bric-manufacturing-pmis-october.html. Now, leet's take a look at Services PMI.
October PMI data for Ireland is showing serious strains from the pandemic and wave 2 on the economic activity:
Overall, all PMIs point to a significant weakness in the economy in September continuing into October. Keep in mind that PMIs are effectively cumulative: sub-50 reading in September implies a decline in economic activity relative to August. If this is followed by a sub-50 reading in October, the new decline is being signalled is on already diminished September activity.
Things are getting more complicated in the Nordics in the wake of the unfolding second wave of the pandemic:
BRIC's manufacturing PMIs are out for October, marking the start of Q4 2020. Overall, the results reinforce Q3 2020 trends highlighted here: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/10/141020-bric-manufacturing-pmis-q3.html.
Russia is experiencing a second wave of the pandemic that started around September 10-12 is still gaining speed in terms of new cases and deaths counts:
Updating tables for countries with > 100,000 cases, data through November 3 ECDC reporting:
Both, the U.S. and the EU27 are currently in the new wave of the pandemic (more on this later). That said, across three key metrics: new cases per capita, deaths per capita and deaths per case:
The pandemic is once again re-accelerating worldwide:
Summary tables:
Despite relative easing of public anxiety over the public health risks, COVID19 pandemic remains on a full-blown expansionary path and the recent dramatic - exponential - rise in new cases, whilst in part driven by improved testing, is now showing signs of lifting up daily deaths counts, with new deaths coming in at above March-September averages in October and in the first days of November.
Remember them?
One of Europe's largest banks? Check. The oldest bank in the world with continued trading since 1472? Check. The first bank in history to require a sovereign rescue? Check. In 1624, the Medici Grand Duke of Tuscany rushed to guarantee the deposits of a bank at a time of economic crisis. The only bank in known history that has been bailed out at least five times and nationalised at least twice? Check.
Yep, right, we have the new old news from Italy's Banca Monte dei Paschi di Sienna. Just two and a half years after the last Government rescue in 2017 MPS is now rumoured to need another capital injection: https://www.reuters.com/article/italy-banks-monte-dei-paschi/rpt-update-1-monte-dei-paschi-ceo-tells-board-bank-faces-2-bln-euro-capital-gap-source-idUSL1N2HP0EV.
The latest capital call is a mixture of the residual problems from the, yes, now more than a decade-old (hew, what's decades for MPS, right?) financial crisis and the fresh blows to thee Italian (and European) banks from the pandemic.
Overall, major European banks have been increasing their capital cushions in thee early stages of the pandemic (https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/europe-s-top-banks-bulk-up-capital-cushions-but-market-wary-as-virus-resurges-60666650). And, so far, losses in most banks have been either mild or inexistent, and most certainly well below the original (1Q 2020) expectations (https://www.ft.com/content/4d9ee2a0-8e44-4091-b6b7-ca9302f0f314). But banks are losing capital in bucketloads (https://o.canada.com/financial-times/global-banks-lost-nearly-us1-trillion-in-market-value-in-the-pandemics-first-wave-and-theres-another-one-coming/wcm/fe7ab3c9-3681-4703-9833-91a9baf71796) and losses recognitions cannot be delayed for too long (https://www.euromoney.com/article/27ohbp85c1ossyw7im1og/capital-markets/the-road-ahead-europes-banks-face-limited-options-as-they-cope-with-covids-aftermath).
All in, with the second wave of the pandemic raging across the EU, MPS's latest problems are probably just an early warning signal for the rest of the Eeuropean banking sector.