Sales of the U.S. Mint gold coins have moderated off their pandemic highs, but remain elevated by historical standards, especially controlling for higher gold prices:
As the pandemic re-accelerates, it will be interesting to see how seasonality (uplift in end-of-year sales) plays out against the pandemic-related hedging positioning of investors.
Quick update to the U.S. vs EU27 charts for COVID19 pandemic:
My recent keynote address to the pTools Virtual Conference 2020: Identity & Risk: Financial Services in a Time of Transformation & Uncertainty (22nd October 2020) is now available at: https://vimeopro.com/user12978768/ptools-virtual-conference-2020.
Russia is now in a full-blown second wave of the pandemic with rapidly accelerating daily deaths counts:
Overall, Russia currently ranks 33rd worst in the league of 47 countries with more than 100,000 cases, with better than average (95% confidence interval) scores in the number of cases per 1 million population, deaths per 1 million of population and deaths per 1,000 of cases. Despite the commonly cited controversy over Russian reporting methodologies for COVID19 linked deaths (incidentally, Russia does not use a unique methodology for such reporting, although Russian methods for assigning causes of deaths are different from those used in the EU27), Russian rates of deaths per cases detected and rates of deaths per 1 million of population are comparable (in rankings) to Russia's case numbers.
Nonetheless, the second wave of the pandemic is both deadlier and larger than the first wave and it remains to be seen if Russian healthcare system can cope with this.
ifo Institute's latest Business Climate survey data for Germany is pointing to continued weakness in the recovery momentum:
Notably, all four sectors covered remain under water:
Current conditions are deteriorating month-on-month in two sectors, expectations have deteriorated in all four sectors.
I have been running EU vs U.S. comparatives for COVID19 pandemic dynamics for some time now, and as those reading this blog would know, some months ago I added an estimate - based on mortality figures - of the excess U.S. deaths compared to the EU27. These currently - by my estimate - stand at 114,621 (see latest estimate here: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/10/231020-covid19-update-us-vs-eu27.html).
My estimate is crude. It is based on timings, population size and mortality rate adjustments.
A more accurate recent estimate has been provided by the Columbia University study (https://resiliencesystem.org/columbia-university-says-trump-could-have-avoided-over-130000-covid-19-deaths-more-robust-pandemic) that puts the number at 130,000-210,000 'avoidable deaths'. That is some range, of course. Per study: "If "the U.S. had followed Canadian policies and protocols, there might have only been 85,192 U.S. deaths – making more than 132,500 American deaths 'avoidable,'" the authors wrote. "If the U.S. response had mirrored that of Germany, the U.S. may have only had 38,457 deaths – leaving 179,260 avoidable deaths."
One way or the other, there are at least 100,000+ Americans dead because of the completely shambolic public health system and policy responses by the current Federal and State leaderships in the U.S.
Columbia study seems to nail some of these factors: "The country's disproportionate death toll stems from delayed federal action, an insufficient testing regimen, a lack of consistent mask-wearing guidance, and the failure of top officials, notably Trump, to model best practices". Alas, predictably (mythology of the American culture), it misses the elephant in the room: the U.S. healthcare system itself. American approach to distributing access to healthcare based on private insurance (plus Medicare and Medicaid) is leaving tens of millions of Americans outside the basic safety net. Those without insurance as well as countless more with the atrociously large deductibles and co-pays are too afraid to present themselves to the hospitals designed to bankrupt people of modest means to seek early support and help. It matters little how much the U.S. authorities test the public (and, yes, tests are highly rationed, still, despite all the bluster from the White House), if people do not seek help in fear of being destroyed financially.
In 2020, the average annual deductible for single, individual coverage is $4,364 and $8,439 for family coverage. Co-pay normally ranges 10-40% of the bill, though it is more complicated, since there are various caps and step-downs in co-payments. (https://www.ehealthinsurance.com/resources/individual-and-family/how-much-does-individual-health-insurance-cost#:~:text=Deductibles%20and%20cost%2Dsharing%20expenses,and%20%248%2C439%20for%20family%20coverage.)
The typical American household has an average of $8,863 in a bank or credit union account. There are serious variations by age and type of household, with couples 34 and younger, couples without children have an average of $4,727 in savings, while single people without children have an average of $2,729 in savings. Couples with children between the age of 35 and 44 have an average of $10,399, couples aged 45-54 with children average $15,589. (https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/11/how-much-money-americans-have-in-their-savings-accounts-at-every-age.html)
Meanwhile, the median charge for COVID-19 inpatient care was $45,683 for people aged 51 to 60 and $34,662 for those in the 23 to 30 age bracket, according to a recent study. This was the median billed to people without insurance or those who were forced to be treated out of network. The highest average allowed amount paid to the provider under an insurance plan was $24,012 for people aged 51 to 60 and, at its lowest, $17,094 for people above age 70. (https://www.thehealthcareloop.com/hospitalized-care-for-covid-19-averages-34662-to-45683-varying-by-age/)
So a person visit for COVID19 treatment, counting lost wages, would wipe out between 1/2 and all of the savings held by average household. Contagion within the family would be a near insolvency event.
Anyone surprised American system is killing the U.S. citizens and residents?
Two previous posts covered some core labor markets data for the U.S.:
Current reading stands at 3,194,750 which is above the 2008-2011 crisis peak of 3,169,786 and only slightly below all-time pre-COVID19 high of 3,313,000 attained in January 1975.
In absolute level numbers, preliminary first-time claims for the week of October 17, 2020 stand at 756,617 which is still 3 times the rate of first-time claims filings in the last week before COVID19 pandemic onset (March 14, 2020). The good news is, preliminary estimate for the new claims for the week of October 17 suggest a decline in new claims filings of 73,125 on week prior - the fastest rate of reductions in 10 weeks. However, overall average weekly decline in first-time claims over the last 10 weeks has been rather unimpressive at 8,212. At this rate of improvement, it will take almost 62 weeks to draw current first-time claims down to the levels seen in the last pre-COVID19 week.
In the previous post, I covered data for the U.S. Labor Force Participation and Employment to Population Ratios (see https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/10/241020-us-labor-force-participation.html). Now, let's update the data for Total Nonfarm Payrolls through September:
Here is a genuinely scary table, highlighting the fact that in the COVID19 pandemic, the U.S. sustained jobs losses of the combined magnitude equivalent to those suffered in all recessions from 1980 through the Great Recession:
One of thee major casualties of the COVID19 pandemic has been the U.S. labor market. However, with an allegedly robust recovery under way, we are seeing significant improvements across some metrics of labor markets health. In some, but not all.
Take labor force participation rate:
My last update on Nordics vs Sweden comparatives was a month ago, although I did post some more recent data trends on Twitter since then. Here are the latest numbers:
New deaths counts are relatively benign, both in Sweden and (at a higher rate) in the rest of the Nordics. However, new daily counts in thee Nordics ex-Sweden are literally out of control as a new, and much larger wave of the pandemic sweeps EU27.
Sweden entered the second wave of the pandemic with a delay, compared to other European states, so its numbers are still lagging those in other Nordic states.
I commented on the often-heard argument in favour of Sweden's 'herd immunity' strategy earlier today and you can read it here, if you missed it (bottom of the post): https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/10/231020-covid19-update-countries-with.html.
It appears, based on Sweden's (amongst others') experiences, that we really have very limited options in terms of public policy response to the pandemic. My five cents, based on multiple observations of experts' advice: we need
Anything short of these will result in stop-and-go swings of the pandemic and knee-jerk policy reactions with rolling shutdowns of the entire economies.
Two weeks ago I pointed out the fact that Russian COVID19 numbers are going exponential as the pandemic clearly entered a new wave dynamic. This trend is still there and death counts are rapidly accelerating as well.
If the chart isn't clear enough, here are the numbers:
This isn't a fluke, nor a product of increased testing, though the latter factor contributes to higher detection numbers, it should be pushing down deaths (earlier interventions should be consistent with better treatment options and outcomes).
Around two weeks ago, Russia new cases went exponential. Now, there are signs of a similar dynamic in the already rising daily death counts.
Some interesting updates to the league tables for countries with > 100,000. Since the last update, five more countries joined the rather sad club, including Sweden (more on this later), and there are now 47 countries around the world with more than 100,000 cases of the disease recorded.
The tables below are organized as a heat map, with green cells reporting statistics that put a country in the 'better than average' category, while orange cells marking countries statistically worse than average:
