5/11/2013: BlackRock Institute survey: Latin America October 2013

BlackRock Investment Institute released its latest Economic Cycle Survey for Latin America. EMEA region latest survey note is available here (http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2013/11/5112013-blackrock-institute-survey-emea.html) and North America & Western Europe note is available here (http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2013/10/11102013-blackrock-institute-survey-n.html).

"This month’s Latin America Economic Cycle Survey presented a mixed outlook for the region. Brazil, Colombia, Peru, Mexico, Brazil and Chile are described to be in expansionary phases of the cycle and expected to remain so over the next 2 quarters, while Argentina’s growth is expected to deteriorate from expansion to contraction over this horizon. Venezuela is described by the consensus to be in a recessionary state, with no improvement to this outlook at the 6 month horizon."

This is predictable. However, the surprise side is Brazil. Out 6 months from October, expectations are for continued recessionary pressures (35%) basically suggesting that forward-looking bears are slightly more bearish. The country, alongside with Mexico, is in a group that is stuck between higher growth states and Venezuela and Argentina. This despite the improving global outlook: "The global growth outlook remains positive, with a net of 69% of participants expecting a stronger global economy
over the next 12 months compared to 76% in the September report."

Note: these views reflect opinions of survey respondents, not that of the BlackRock Investment Institute. Also note: cover of countries is relatively uneven, with some countries being assessed by a relatively small number of experts.

Here are two summary charts:

5/11/2013: BlackRock Institute survey: EMEA October 2013

BlackRock Investment Institute released its latest Economic Cycle Survey for EMEA region.
 A note on latest survey results for North America & Western Europe is available here.

"With caveat on the depth of country-level responses, which can differ widely, this month’s EMEA Economic Cycle Survey presented a bullish outlook for the region."

"The consensus of respondents describe Slovenia, the Ukraine, Croatia and Russia currently to be in a recessionary state, with an even split of economists gauging Egypt to be in expansion or contraction. Over the next 2 quarters, the consensus shifts toward expansion for Russia, Croatia and Egypt and an even split between expansion and contraction for the Ukraine."

"At the 12 month horizon, the positive theme continues with the consensus expecting all EMEA countries to strengthen or remain the same, with the exception of Russia." Russian sentiment has deteriorated significantly in recent months.

"Globally, respondents remain positive on the global growth cycle, with a net 73% of 57 respondents expecting a strengthening world economy over the next 12 months – a 13% decrease from the net of 86% figure in last month. The consensus of economists project a shift from early cycle to mid-cycle expansion over the next 6 months."

Note: these views reflect opinions of survey respondents, not that of the BlackRock Investment Institute. Also note: cover of countries is relatively uneven, with some countries being assessed by a relatively small number of experts.

Here are two summary charts:

Note: Red dot represents Slovakia, Poland, Israel, Kazakhstan, and South Africa. 

11/10/2013: BlackRock Institute survey: N. America & W. Europe: October 2013

BlackRock Investment Institute Economic Cycle survey for North America and Western Europe is out and here are core results (emphasis is mine):

"This month’s North America and Western Europe Economic Cycle Survey presented a positive outlook on global growth, with a net of 65% of 113 economists expecting the global economy will get stronger over the next year. (6% lower than within the September report).

At the 12 month horizon, the positive theme continued with the consensus expecting all economies spanned by the survey to strengthen or remain the same except Sweden. 

The consensus outlook for the Eurozone was also strong, with 87% of economists expecting the currency-bloc to move to an expansionary phase over next six months. The picture within the bloc was not uniform however, with most respondents expecting only Greece to remain in a recessionary phase and an even mix of economists expecting Portugal and Belgium to be in an expansionary or recessionary phase at the 6 month horizon (and similarly so for Sweden, outside of the currency-bloc). 

With regards to North America, the consensus view was firmly that the USA and Canada are in mid-cycle expansion and are expected to remain so through H2 2013."

Note that this correlates well with my own outlook: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2013/10/9102014-businessinsider-most-important.html

Also note: the above views do not reflect BlackRock own views or advice. 

Two charts as usual:

Note that in the chart above, Ireland now firmly converged with the Euro area. This is a very strong move compared to September survey: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2013/09/1292013-blackrock-institute-survey-n.html And the above is confirmed by the overall comparative expectations forward:

So on the net - good result for Ireland and positive outlook for Euro area as a whole.

12/9/2013: BlackRock Institute survey: N. America & W. Europe: September 2013

BlackRock Investment Institute released its latest Economic Cycle Survey for North America and Western Europe region for September 2013.

Per summary: "This month’s North America and Western Europe Economic Cycle Survey presented a positive outlook on global growth, with a net of 71% of 119 economists expecting the global economy will get stronger over the next year. (1% higher than within the August report). 

At the 12 month horizon, the positive theme continued with the consensus expecting all economies spanned by the survey to strengthen or remain the same. 

The consensus outlook for the Eurozone continued to improve, where the 6 month forward outlook shifted from 75% to 86% expecting the currency-bloc to move to an expansionary phase. The picture within the bloc was not uniform however, with most respondents expecting Portugal, Greece, Belgium and the Netherlands to remain in a recessionary phase over the next 2 quarters. 

With regards to the US, the consensus view firmly that North America as a whole is in mid-cycle expansion and remaining so through H2 2013."

September improvement for the global outlook was much shallower than a 10 point jump in August. Ditto for Eurozone outlook: this rose from 57% in July to 75% in August to 87% in September. Italy outlook seemed to have improved quite markedly, however.

Note: these views reflect opinions of survey respondents, not that of the BlackRock Investment Institute. Also note: cover of countries is relatively uneven, with some countries being assessed by a relatively small number of experts.

Two charts as usual:

Ireland continues to lead expectations, just as it did in previous 3 months.

In global expectations there were some notable movements in analysts' replies. 6% of analysts expected global economy to get a lot stronger over the next 12 months back in August, and this declined to 2% in the current survey. 69% expected it to get a little stronger in August and this proportion rose to 76% in September. 5% expected the global economy to get a little weaker in the next 12 months back in August, which in September rose to 6%. 

In Ireland's case, in August zero percent of analysts expected the economy to get a lot stronger over the next 12 months and this remained unchanged in September survey. All analysts (100%) expected the Irish economy to get a little stronger over the next 12 months in September survey - same as in August. 57% of analysts expected the economy to be in an early-cycle recovery over the next 6 months back in August, and this fell to 50% for September survey. There was significant rise (from 0% to 17% between August and September surveys) in the proportion of analysts expecting Irish economy to be in mid-cycle expansion over the next 6 months period. The number of analysts expecting the economy to be in a late-recession over the next 6 months dropped from 43% in August to 33% in September.

6/9/2013: BlackRock Institute survey: EMEA: August 2013

BlackRock Investment Institute released its latest Economic Cycle Survey for EMEA region.
 Note: my note on survey results for North America & Western Europe is available here.

Per summary: "... this month’s EMEA Economic Cycle Survey presented a generally bullish outlook for the region. 

The consensus of respondents describe Slovenia, the Ukraine, Croatia, Egypt and Russia currently to be in a recessionary state, with an even split of economists gauging Slovakia to be in expansion or contraction. Over the next 2 quarters, all these countries are expected to stay in a recessionary state except Russia, Slovakia and Croatia. 

At the 12 month horizon, the positive theme continues with the consensus expecting all EMEA countries to strengthen or remain the same, with the exception of the Ukraine and Turkey."

Note: these views reflect opinions of survey respondents, not that of the BlackRock Investment Institute. Also note: cover of countries is relatively uneven, with some countries being assessed by a relatively small number of experts.

Here are two summary charts:

6/9/2013: BlackRock Institute survey: North America & Western Europe: August 2013

BlackRock Investment Institute released its latest Economic Cycle Survey for North America and Western Europe region.

Per summary: "This month’s North America and Western Europe Economic Cycle Survey presented an improvement in the outlook for global growth over the next 12 months – the net proportion of respondents with a positive outlook increased to 70% from 60% last month. 

The consensus outlook for the Eurozone was particularly positive, where the 6 month forward outlook shifted from 57% to 75% expecting the currency-bloc to move to an expansionary phase. 

The picture within the bloc was not uniform however, with most respondents expecting Portugal, Greece, Belgium and the Netherlands to remain in a recessionary phase, while the consensus has shifted to expect expansion for France, Spain, Finland and Ireland over the next 2 quarters. An even mix of economists expect Italy to be expansionary or recessionary at the 6 month horizon (and similarly so for Norway, outside of the currency-block). 

With regards to the US, the proportion of respondents expecting recession over the next 6 months remain low, with the consensus view firmly that North America as a whole is in mid-cycle expansion and remaining so through H2 2013."

Note: these views reflect opinions of survey respondents, not that of the BlackRock Investment Institute. Also note: cover of countries is relatively uneven, with some countries being assessed by a relatively small number of experts.

Here are two summary charts:

10/8/2013: EMEA Forward Economic Conditions: BlackRock Institute

The BlackRock Investment Institute Economic Cycle Survey : EMEA Aggregate Results were published recently, so here is the update.

Note: the views expressed in the survey are those of the external panel of economics and finance experts and not of the BlackRock Investment Institute.
The results of the survey must be viewed as being subject to the depth of country-level responses considerations, as these can differ widely.

Per the results: "this month’s EMEA Economic Cycle Survey presented a generally bullish outlook for the region. The consensus of respondents describe Slovenia, the Ukraine, Croatia and Czech Republic currently to be in a recessionary state, with an even split of economists gauging Slovakia to be in a expansion or contraction. Over the next 2 quarters, the consensus shifts for all these countries, except the Ukraine and Slovenia, towards expansion.
At the 12 month horizon, the positive theme continues with the consensus expecting all EMEA countries to strengthen, with the exception of Kazakhstan and Turkey."

In comparison, "Globally, respondents remain positive on the global growth cycle, with a net 68% of 62 respondents expecting a strengthening world economy over the next 12 months - this is marginally lower than from a net 70% in last month’s report."

Two charts to map regional economies prospects:

25/7/2013: BlackRock Institute latest survey results for global economic outlook: June 2013

The latest summary of the global growth conditions from the BlackRock Investment Institute. Click on the chart to open larger version. I have highlighted Ireland on the chart.

Blue bars reflect consensus on current phase of economic development (for example, in Ireland's case, current phase is seen as being recessionary by roughly 25% of respondents to the survey). Red dot corresponds to 6mo forward expectation (in Ireland's case, 50% of respondents expect recession in Ireland to either continue or to present itself again in 6 months time).

Note: this is the view of surveyed economists and not the view of the BlackRock II. The chart is based on the "trailing 3 survey reports for the other regions we poll. In our first month of this initiative, we collected the views of over 430 economists from more than 200 institutions, spanning over 50 countries"

8/5/2013: Blackrock Institute Survey: N. America and W. Europe, May 2013

Just as I published April update from Blackrock Investment Institute Economic Cycle surveys, here comes May one for North America and Western Europe:

 Now, note change in Ireland's position compared to April:

May summary:

And conclusions (italics are mine):
"This month’s North America and Western Europe Economic Cycle Survey presented a large shift on the outlook for global growth over the next 12 months – although a net proportion of respondents remains positive, this is now a figure of 41%, compared with a net 71% last month. [In other words, things are turning gloomier for global growth outlook]

With regards to the US, the proportion of respondents expecting recession over the next 6 months remains low, with the consensus view firmly that North America as whole is in mid-cycle expansion. [In other words, current growth rates are not expected to rise much as would have been consistent with early-cycle expansion]

In Europe, the view continues to be more disparate, with a generally stronger northern Europe contrasted by continuing weakness in Eurozone as a whole. Belgium, France, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal and Spain in particular are described in a recessionary state, with the consensus view remaining in this phase at the 6 month horizon in each case."

7/5/2013: Blackrock Institute: April 2013 Global Economic Conditions - 2

More updates from the Blackrock Investment Institute Economic Cycle surveys for April 2013. Here are core charts for regions not covered in the previous post.

Note of caution: some of the countries coverage in responses is thin, so data should be treated as only indicative. And the surveys are based on opinion of external experts, not Blackrock internal views.



EMEA:
"With caveat on the depth of country-level responses, which can differ widely, this month’s EMEA Economic Cycle Survey presented a generally bearish outlook for the region. However, there has been a marked improvement in the outlook for Eastern European countries at the 12 month horizon, compared to earlier reports this year.

The majority of respondents for the Czech Republic, Croatia, Egypt, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia, and the Ukraine describe these countries in a recessionary state; however only half of these -- Croatia, Slovakia, Slovenia and the Ukraine -- are expected to remain so by the majority of economists, at the 6 month horizon. 

At a longer horizon of 12 months, the outlook becomes more positive within Eastern Europe, with only the economies of Slovenia and Slovakia expected to continue to weaken."

Asia Pacific:

"...continuing bullish outlook for the region. Out of the 14 countries covered, only Singapore and Vietnam are currently described to be in a recessionary state. Over next 6 months the balance of consensus opinion shifts back to expansion for these countries, while in Australia the proportion of economists expecting recession increases to 50%. Australia stands out as the only country in the region where respondents expect the economy will weaken over the next year."

Latin America: 

"With a caveat on the depth of country-level responses, which differs widely, this month’s Latin America Economic Cycle Survey presented a generally bullish outlook for the region. Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, Peru and Chile are described to be in expansionary phases of the cycle and expected to remain so over the next 2 quarters, while Brazil is expected to mature from early-expansion to mid-cycle expansion and Chile is expected to move from mid-cycle expansion to late-cycle expansion. 

The exceptions to this theme within the region were Venezuela and Argentina. Both are described by the consensus of economists to be in a recessionary state, with growing proportion respondents expecting this to continue at the 6 month horizon." 

7/5/2013: Blackrock Institute: April 2013 Global Economic Conditions - 1

A number of updates from the Blackrock Investment Institute Economic Cycle surveys for April 2013. Here are core charts.

Note of caution: some of the countries coverage in responses is thin, so data should be treated as only indicative. And the surveys are based on opinion of external experts, not Blackrock internal views.

Global outlook: 

"...a positive outlook on global growth, with a net 71% of 127 economists expecting the global economy will get stronger over the next year, (2% higher from the March report), based on North America and Western Europe panel."

For the EMEA panel, "Respondents remain positive on the global growth cycle, with a net 57% of 64 respondents expecting a strengthening world economy over the next 12 months – however this is large downward shift from the net 74% figure last month."

Asia Pacific panel: "The global growth outlook remains positive, with a net of 71% of participants expecting a stronger global economy over the next 12 months; however this is a large step down from the net 84% figure in last month’s report."

Latin American panel: "The global growth outlook remains positive, with a net 47% of 49 participants expecting a stronger global economy over the next 12 months; however this is a large step down from the net 62% in last month’s report."

North America and Western Europe:

"With regards to the US, the proportion of respondents expecting recession over the next 6 months remains low, with the consensus view firmly that North America as whole is in mid-cycle expansion. 

In Europe, the view continues to be more disparate, with the UK and Eurozone as a whole described in a recessionary state. With caveat that the depth of country coverage varies significantly, the consensus view remains recessionary at the 6 month horizon for France, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain and Belgium."

Note: Ireland results are based on very 'thin' data. 

More regions to follow in the next post.

6/3/2013: BlackRock Institute Economic Cycle Survey 03/2013

BlackRock Investment Institute has released the latest results from its Economic Cycle Survey for EMEA and North America & Western Europe.

Before looking at the results, note:

1. The survey represents the summary of the views of a panel of economists polled by the BlackRock Investment Institute, and not the view of the Institute itself
2. In some instances, survey covers small number of responses (see two tables below detailing the depth of coverage), with low coverage corresponding to survey results being indicative, rather than consensus-conclusive.

So core results for North America and Western Europe regions:

In effect, little change from the previous surveys for Ireland, which remains solidly decoupled in terms of economists consensus from the peripheral states (the latter are all clustered in the upper RHS corner, corresponding to both high expectations of continued recession and current indicator of the present recession). In the case of Ireland, it is obviously very hard to tell whether or not Ireland is currently in a recession. Both GDP and GNP changes q/q and y/y do not warrant official designation of a recession, but nonetheless the economy is running at well below its potential capacity.

Per chart above, it is clear that despite the Eurostat projections for 2013 growth, Ireland does not lead the Euro Area in terms of forward expectations for economic growth when it comes to the economists' assessment.

Now on to EMEA results:

Pretty much predictable weakening of Russian growth for 2013 is reflected in the above. Two other interesting points:

1. The weakest performing states in terms of current conditions and expectations are the ones with closest ties to (and membership in) the Euro zone;
2. Weak performance for the Ukraine is reflective of the country continued political mess and the lack of sustainable fundamentals in terms of the country orientation vis-a-vis its main trading partners (the contrasting reality of the private sector closely tied into the CIS and more precisely Russian markets for investment and trade, juxtaposed by the political re-orientation toward Europe).

Note: here are the tables detailing the extent of the survey coverage depth: