5/11/2013: BlackRock Institute survey: Latin America October 2013

BlackRock Investment Institute released its latest Economic Cycle Survey for Latin America. EMEA region latest survey note is available here (http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2013/11/5112013-blackrock-institute-survey-emea.html) and North America & Western Europe note is available here (http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2013/10/11102013-blackrock-institute-survey-n.html).

"This month’s Latin America Economic Cycle Survey presented a mixed outlook for the region. Brazil, Colombia, Peru, Mexico, Brazil and Chile are described to be in expansionary phases of the cycle and expected to remain so over the next 2 quarters, while Argentina’s growth is expected to deteriorate from expansion to contraction over this horizon. Venezuela is described by the consensus to be in a recessionary state, with no improvement to this outlook at the 6 month horizon."

This is predictable. However, the surprise side is Brazil. Out 6 months from October, expectations are for continued recessionary pressures (35%) basically suggesting that forward-looking bears are slightly more bearish. The country, alongside with Mexico, is in a group that is stuck between higher growth states and Venezuela and Argentina. This despite the improving global outlook: "The global growth outlook remains positive, with a net of 69% of participants expecting a stronger global economy
over the next 12 months compared to 76% in the September report."

Note: these views reflect opinions of survey respondents, not that of the BlackRock Investment Institute. Also note: cover of countries is relatively uneven, with some countries being assessed by a relatively small number of experts.

Here are two summary charts:

7/5/2013: Blackrock Institute: April 2013 Global Economic Conditions - 2

More updates from the Blackrock Investment Institute Economic Cycle surveys for April 2013. Here are core charts for regions not covered in the previous post.

Note of caution: some of the countries coverage in responses is thin, so data should be treated as only indicative. And the surveys are based on opinion of external experts, not Blackrock internal views.



EMEA:
"With caveat on the depth of country-level responses, which can differ widely, this month’s EMEA Economic Cycle Survey presented a generally bearish outlook for the region. However, there has been a marked improvement in the outlook for Eastern European countries at the 12 month horizon, compared to earlier reports this year.

The majority of respondents for the Czech Republic, Croatia, Egypt, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia, and the Ukraine describe these countries in a recessionary state; however only half of these -- Croatia, Slovakia, Slovenia and the Ukraine -- are expected to remain so by the majority of economists, at the 6 month horizon. 

At a longer horizon of 12 months, the outlook becomes more positive within Eastern Europe, with only the economies of Slovenia and Slovakia expected to continue to weaken."

Asia Pacific:

"...continuing bullish outlook for the region. Out of the 14 countries covered, only Singapore and Vietnam are currently described to be in a recessionary state. Over next 6 months the balance of consensus opinion shifts back to expansion for these countries, while in Australia the proportion of economists expecting recession increases to 50%. Australia stands out as the only country in the region where respondents expect the economy will weaken over the next year."

Latin America: 

"With a caveat on the depth of country-level responses, which differs widely, this month’s Latin America Economic Cycle Survey presented a generally bullish outlook for the region. Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, Peru and Chile are described to be in expansionary phases of the cycle and expected to remain so over the next 2 quarters, while Brazil is expected to mature from early-expansion to mid-cycle expansion and Chile is expected to move from mid-cycle expansion to late-cycle expansion. 

The exceptions to this theme within the region were Venezuela and Argentina. Both are described by the consensus of economists to be in a recessionary state, with growing proportion respondents expecting this to continue at the 6 month horizon."