Tuesday, December 18, 2012

18/12/2012: QNA Q3 2012: Q1-Q3 cumulated results


Some positive news today on a major front with the release of Q3 2012 preliminary QNA estimates. Headlines are good, predominantly. Here is a post covering cumulated Q1-Q3 data for 2007-2012. More detailed analysis of dynamics in QNA components later tonight.

In Q1-Q3 (9 months) cumulated period:

  • Irish GDP in Constant Market Prices rose from €119.261 billion in 2011 to €120.246 billion, implying y/y growth rate of 0.826%.
  • Irish GNP also increased, from €94,721 million in 2011 to €97,557 million in 2012 yielding a y/y growth rate of 2.99%.
  • In nominal terms (current market prices), Irish GDP was up from €119.123 billion to €123.299 billion (+3.506% y/y), while Irish GNP increased from €94.493 billion to €99.645 billion (+5.452% y/y).
Two charts to illustrate the above:

Here's for those who feel relaxing at today's reading:

  • Compared to peak, Irish GDP in constant prices terms is still 5.37% below the level attained for Q1-Q3 2007, while in current terms it is 12.15% down on the peak.
  • Compared to peak, Irish GNP in constant prices terms is down 7.96% and in current market prices terms it is down a massive 17.04%.

Domestic demand has continued deterioration over the first 9 months of 2012, so domestic economy is still contracting overall:
  • Final Domestic Demand in constant prices terms fell in the nine months from January 2012 from €90.515 billion in 2011 to €88.987 billion (-1.69% y/y).
  • Final Domestic Demand in current prices terms also fell in the nine months from January 2012 from €91.188 billion in 2011 to €90.991 billion (-0.21% y/y).
  • Final Domestic Demand in constant terms is currently down 22.02% on 2007 (Q1-Q3) cumulative levels and is down 27.83% in current prices terms.




More on sub-series dynamics later tonight.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Exports may be looking good. But if domestic economy is starting to fade, you'll be exporting talent because of quality of life issues. How much of our exports are convertible to local demand & is there any sign that this may have a positive and sustainable impact?