All scenarios are explained above and all assumptions are in there as well.
So the conclusions are:
- If we continue injecting cash into INBS, the total cost of winding down the bank will be the loss of all cash already put into it, plus the expected post-Nama injection of ca €1,148 million. The grand total bill for shutting INBS via Minister Lenihan's preferred option will be €7,234 million;
- Shutting down INBS back in 2009 would have cost between €2,030 million and €3,078 million, were the Government to listen to people like Peter Mathews, Brian Lucey, Karl Whelan and myself. The bond holders (senior ones) would have been paid 50 cents on the euro.
- Shutting it down now, without going Nama route will cost €1,575-2,659 million, plus the money we already dumped into it to date, i.e €2,700 million. Which is still cheaper than what Minister Lenihan's plan would deliver.
As for your last question, they can until the bond markets yell, "Stop!" Until then, there is no incentive for the Government to do what needs to be done.....of course, I am optimistic!
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