Tuesday, November 12, 2013

12/11/2013: Clawing out of the Great Recession...

In all of the excitement of the 'recovery' and the 'exit' and the 'regained independence' and all other newsworthy flow of PR material around, it is hard to keep track of where we are today as compared to the days before the Celtic Garfield sighed for the last time in his deep sleep... And yet, just a few numbers will do...

The latest data we have so far is for Q2 2013, which also gives us H1 2013... Here's the comparative to Q2 and H1 2007:

Yes, in nominal terms (that is in terms of actual countable euros), our GDP is still 15.3% below that in H1 2007 and or GNP is even worse - at 17.53% discount on H1 2007.

The score card for more recent performance is more encouraging but still weak:

So here's a medical analogy: a patient had a heart attack. A patient has progressed from being classified as being in an 'extremely critical' condition (2008 - 2010) to 'critical' (Troika 2010 - H1 2012) to 'critical but stable' (H1 2012 - H1 2013). It's a long way before we get back to a 'discharge' state... but we are starting to claw out.
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