Tuesday, December 18, 2012

18/12/2012: QNA Q3 2012: Q1-Q3 cumulated results


Some positive news today on a major front with the release of Q3 2012 preliminary QNA estimates. Headlines are good, predominantly. Here is a post covering cumulated Q1-Q3 data for 2007-2012. More detailed analysis of dynamics in QNA components later tonight.

In Q1-Q3 (9 months) cumulated period:

  • Irish GDP in Constant Market Prices rose from €119.261 billion in 2011 to €120.246 billion, implying y/y growth rate of 0.826%.
  • Irish GNP also increased, from €94,721 million in 2011 to €97,557 million in 2012 yielding a y/y growth rate of 2.99%.
  • In nominal terms (current market prices), Irish GDP was up from €119.123 billion to €123.299 billion (+3.506% y/y), while Irish GNP increased from €94.493 billion to €99.645 billion (+5.452% y/y).
Two charts to illustrate the above:

Here's for those who feel relaxing at today's reading:

  • Compared to peak, Irish GDP in constant prices terms is still 5.37% below the level attained for Q1-Q3 2007, while in current terms it is 12.15% down on the peak.
  • Compared to peak, Irish GNP in constant prices terms is down 7.96% and in current market prices terms it is down a massive 17.04%.

Domestic demand has continued deterioration over the first 9 months of 2012, so domestic economy is still contracting overall:
  • Final Domestic Demand in constant prices terms fell in the nine months from January 2012 from €90.515 billion in 2011 to €88.987 billion (-1.69% y/y).
  • Final Domestic Demand in current prices terms also fell in the nine months from January 2012 from €91.188 billion in 2011 to €90.991 billion (-0.21% y/y).
  • Final Domestic Demand in constant terms is currently down 22.02% on 2007 (Q1-Q3) cumulative levels and is down 27.83% in current prices terms.




More on sub-series dynamics later tonight.
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