On the first day of its quasi-somewhat-sort-of-free float, Ruble is, as predicted (http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2014/11/7112014-russian-ruble-rough-days-ahead.html) is showing no trend other than the one in rising volatility.
Two charts: one day and five days:
It has been a wild ride. The shorts are having their lunch:
Remember, CBR abandoned regular interventions strategy and opted for free float of the Ruble. But the float is not quite free, as CBR said it will instead intervene in limiting supply of foreign currency to trading and debt cover only, removing the so-called speculative positions of Russian banks and corporates.
This will be tough to strategise, since much of the so-called 'capital outflow' (Western terminology) or 'speculative demand' (Russian terminology) is related to debt maturity redemptions. These are hitting Russian economy hard in the wake of virtual shut-down of Western debt markets for all Russian companies and banks (including those not covered by sanctions):
Still, something will have to be done. Russia is losing foreign exchange reserves fast:
The only surprising bit - given the rate of reserves depletion - is that Russia still did not introduce direct capital controls, although CBR decision this week is looking increasingly like a veiled control regime.
Note: more detailed comments on the Ruble are forthcoming in Euromoney report and Expresso, so stay tuned for links.
At this rate the zero will go back on the notes just like it was in the 90's.
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