Thursday, November 6, 2014

6/11/2014: Ifo Survey of Business Climate & Expectations: Euro Area

CES Ifo published their Economic Sentiment Indicators for Euro Area for Q4 2014, showing marked slowdown in the economy on the basis of both current conditions and market expectations 6 months forward.

Here are the details.

Economic Climate Indicator overall has fallen from 118.9 in Q3 2014 to 102.3 in Q4 2014.  This is the lowest reading since Q3 2013 when the index stood at exactly the same level of 102.3.

Present Situation sub-index fell from 128.7 in Q3 2014 to 106.3 in Q4 2014, marking the lowest reading since Q4 2013 when it stood at exactly the same level as in Q4 2014.

Six months forward Expectations sub-index fell from 113.1 in Q3 2014 to 100.0 in Q4 2014, the lowest reading since Q3 2013.

The gap between expectations and present conditions worsened to 94.1 (a reading below 100 means that there is expected deterioration in underlying conditions over the next 6 months compared to current conditions).

The index overall has underestimated the downward momentum in previous quarter.

Chart to illustrate:

As shown above, the European Commission survey of Business Sentiment posted a slight improvement at the end of October, reflected in the Q4 figure to-date. However, we do not have actual projections for full Q4 2014 yet.

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