Thursday, November 20, 2014

20/11/2014: Oil Prices: Supply and Demand Drivers

An interesting BofE note on links between commodities prices & UK inflation:

A key chart - from global perspective - is this one:

Main points are:

  1. 2014 demand growth is way down, driven primarily by contracting demand in the OECD economies (advanced economies rot) and to a lesser extent relatively flat (compared to 2000-2007) growth in non-OECD economies.
  2. Supply from non-OPEC sources is way up, while OPEC is cutting back. Net effect - growth in supply is way above 2000-2007 average.
This suggests that OPEC will have little room to cut continued growth in supply, while some restoration in demand should take place if the OECD economies post more robust growth in 2015. Still, it is hard to see how the above dynamics can support oil prices in USD100+/b over the next 12-15 months.

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