10/2/2014: Irish Services & Manufacturing PMI, January 2014

While on the topic of PMIs (see Construction PMIs update here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2014/02/1022014-ulster-bank-construction-pmis.html), let's update also Manufacturing and Services PMIs data.

Services:

• January Services PMI index slipped slightly to 61.5 from 61.8 in December 2013. The deterioration was not material from statistical point of view, so the index remains effectively at the high level for the last 12 months.
• 3mo MA through January 2014 was 60.1 - above 56.2 in the same period through January 2013, and ahead of 3mo MA through November 2013. This is good news as it allows for some correction in monthly series volatility.
• The series are above their crisis-period trend and are still trending up.
• The index is now above 50.0 since August 2012 - a solid performance, with the rates of growth being on average above 60.0 since at least July 2013.

Manufacturing: 

• January Manufacturing PMI index also moderated to 52.8 from 53.5 in December 2013, with this moderation being significant, albeit shallow.
• On a 3mo MA average, index is at 52.9, which is ahead of 51.4 in the same period of 2013 and is ahead of the 3mo MA through November 2013.
• The index readings have rested above 50.0 nominally since June 2013, although they are significantly (statistically) above 50.0 for a shorter period of time, from somewhere around September 2013.

Overall, January posted slowdown in both indices growth, and 3mo MA for growth rates in the index is now negative for Manufacturing, and moderately positive for Services.

Longer-range good news is highlighted in the next chart, showing that in January 2014, levels of two PMIs were consistent with expansion across both sectors, contrasting the situation in January 2012 and January 2013.

Top level conclusion: The numbers show a good start to 2014, but Manufacturing remains a weaker point for the economy. Given monthly volatility in the indices, we need to see more data from PMIs to call the 2014 trends


As usual, the caveats apply: I have no data on sub-components of both PMIs - the core information that is no longer being made public by Investec and Markit (the publishers of the two series). Unfortunately, this means I no longer cover the two organisations' analysis of the components as these are unverifiable and statistically no longer testable.