Sunday, January 13, 2013

13/1/2013: OECD charts the Great Recession

A nice chart from the OECD's latest Economic Outlook ppt presentation comparing recoveries in previous recessions with the current one:

Notice that the 1970s recession looks more like a U-shaped in terms of recovery trajectory, while the 1980s recession shows long-lasting rotated J-shape. Current one is at L-shape so far. Also, note that the 1980s recession did not recover the pre-recession peak activity levels before the subsequent recession hit.

Now, do give some contemplation to the current recession, together with the OECD forecasts for two scenarios: baseline (main forecast) and the scenario of continued euro area crisis:

This pretty well shows the tear-away speed of the US recovery expected in 2013-2014, compared to the euro area and Japan, as well as to the OECD overall. It also shows the degree of the US economy (forecast) resilience vis the euro area crisis.

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