Thursday, January 3, 2013

3/1/2013: Irish Income Par Capita at 1998-1999 levels

On foot of the post on the US household incomes (see here), I took a look at CSO series for Ireland's per capita national income. Here's a chart:

As the chart shows, Ireland's current per capita national incomes stood at EUR27,105.6 in 2011, down 19.74% on peak and below 1999 level. Irish per capita national disposable income at EUR26,575.7 in 2011 was down 20.2% on peak levels and was below 1998-1999 average.

Using IMF projections for personal consumption and private investment for 2012, Ireland's 2012 per capita national income can be expected to remain below 1998-1999 averages in 2012.

Put in different terms, as the result of the current crisis, Ireland's real economy has already lost not a decade but over 14 years worth of growth. Assuming disposal incomes per capita grow at 2.5% per annum into perpetuity, Ireland will regain 2006 peak levels of real income per capita by 2022, at 2% by 2024 and at 1.75% - by 2026, implying that the 'lost decade' for Ireland's economy is likely to last not 10 years, but between 16 and 20 years.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

A different view on the same numbers could be:-
If you take the 1995 level of circa 20K, apply growth of 1.75% until 2026, you get circa 34K.
So there is no lost decade. We just took a bumpy ride from 1995 to 2026 instead of a smooth one.