Sunday, January 13, 2013

13/1/2013: Decoupling: US v Euro Area 2011-2060

Another interesting chart that speaks volumes about the topic I have been highlighting now since ca 2002-2003. The topic is the concept of 'decoupling' from growth momentum. Back prior to the crisis, European media loved the theory of China (or Emerging Economies, etc) displacing the US as the core drivers of global growth and, ultimately, as the centre of global economic power. At the same time, Brussels 'leaders' were keen stressing the theory of the European Century - the 21st century as the period of revival of Europe.

My reply to that was, and still is, that while the US share of global output is shrinking against rising EMs and BRICS share (S for South Africa) and while this trend is likely to continue into the future, it is the EU (more significantly, the euro area) that is dropping out of the global story by outpacing the decline of the US relative predominance. Much of this born out in the IMF projections. And here is a nice and concise OECD graphic for that:

So between 2011 and 2060 (yes, I know - time horizon very vast and thus forecasts very tentative), the US share of global GDP is expected to drop significantly: from 23% to 16% - a decline of under 38.5%. In the same period, euro area share is expected to shrink from 17% to 9% - a decline of just under 47.1%. Of course, Japan's importance to the global economy is likely to fall even more - by over 57.1%.

All in, the 'decoupling' (and I don't really like this term, because it implies removal of the OECD economies activity out of global activity, which is not happening) will take US, EA17 and Japan share of global output from 47% in 2011 to 28% in 2060 according to the OECD projections. 42.1% of this decline will be accounted for by the EA17, 36.8% by the US and 21.1% by Japan.

I don't think the 21st Century is shaping up to be the Age of the Euro...

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