Monday, October 29, 2012

29/10/2012: German banks exposure to GIIPS

Here's a pic courtesy of Morgan Stanley Research of the German system exposure to GIIPS - pre-crisis, and now:

That is a massive deleveraging (if you look at now, through September), but it is also a massive exposure. Few years ago I said that German banks didn't have a property bubble at home. The had one abroad (in GIIPS) instead. Now, with their banks close to 2005 levels of exposure, it is pretty clear where the Euro area policy train is heading before the station 'Legacy Debts' is reached.

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