Friday, October 5, 2012

5/10/2012: Couple interesting points on gold

Some very interesting research on gold from BNP Paribas (link) and some snippets from it:

Take a look at this chart:

Gold showing lower downside volatility compared to all comparatives and gold showing the upside premium too. Why wouldn't it if inflationary expectations are 'anchored' up?

"We expect central bank accommodative actions, and their impact on inflation expectations and currencies, to be supportive of gold for most of 2013. The US 5yr/5yr breakeven rate, an indicator of inflation expectations, rose on the announcement of QE3 to above 3% from 2.6%. It has since  retreated to 2.9% (Chart 3).

Part of the rationale behind further monetary easing by the Fed is precisely to support inflation expectations and avoid a deflationary environment. Another key objective of QE is to boost risky assets by increasing liquidity and reducing Treasury yields."

"The upcoming round of quantitative easing should also put downward pressure on the US dollar. The currency may lose ground against currencies such as the Yen or the Sterling until mid-2013. Euro appreciation will likely be capped by ongoing uncertainty linked to the sovereign debt crisis. While depreciation in the US dollar tends to be positive for gold, it is difficult to read much into this. The correlation between gold and the EURUSD is variable
and unstable. It currently stands around 65% on a 30-day basis (Chart 4)."

And in case you've been thinking that all the talk about gold as the 'barbaric relic' and the power of the central banks worldwide to right the crisis and protect us from catastrophic risks is true, ask yourself then why this:

In other words, why are Central Banks and Treasuries suddenly buying gold when they keep telling us all that everything is fine in the world of fiat money? Answer is - in part, being prudent, they are insuring against catastrophic risks. Which is a good practice. The bad practice, of course, is to simultaneously lie to their people that 'barbaric relic' is irrelevant in the age of fiat they so well control.

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