Wednesday, February 2, 2011

2/02/2011: Dependency ratios

Looking over LR data earlier tonight, I decided to update the charts for dependency ratios, based on a combination of LR and QNHS. Here are some charts.

From the top: in Q1 1998 there were 1,619.8 thousand persons aged 15 years or older in Ireland that were not in full-time employment and 1,237.4 thousand of the same age category persons who were in full time employment - a ratio of 1.3. By Q1 2000 this ratio fell to 1.1. The same was attained in Q1 2005. This ratio declined to 1.0 in Q4 2005 and stayed there until Q4 2008. Then in Q 12009 the ratio rose to 1.3. As of Q3 2010, there were 2,075.9 thousand 15 year old and over persons who were not in full time employment in Ireland. Against this, there were 1,436.8 thousand persons of the same age category in full time employment. The implied ratio there for has rise to 1.4. Chart below illustrates:
Not scared yet? Ok, another shot:
Oh, and another angle:
The above shows just how bad is the dependency ratio getting in Ireland during the current crisis.


Stephen McManus said...

The second chart is a kick in the teeth! It obviously isn't sustainable, but what is the alternative today?

Pavement Trauma said...

Pretty scary trends alright.

I wonder about the 'full time' aspect though. I have heard anecdotal evidence of firms going on short time having trouble getting some employees back full time as it is not worth their while (in the short term at least). If you work 3 days a week, you get half your unemployment benefit as the rate is based (bizarrely in my opinion) on a 6 day week.

Some people are doing the calculation and finding that
3 days pay + 50% of unemployment payment < 5 days pay, after tax.

Fungus the Photo! said...

This is a depression and entire industries will disappear. That takes a decade or so.

Banks will not recover for two decades, if ever.

The deficit will be reduced to 3% by tax increases. Land prices must reflect their revenue return, say 5%. Primary crops will increase in value. Land taxes will ensure that there is no bubble in the future.

Then there will be a robust economy.