Saturday, February 8, 2014

8/2/2014: Irish Services Sector Activity: FY 2013


In the previous posts I covered:
Monthly data for Irish Services Index for December 2013: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2014/02/822014-services-index-monthly-series.html, and
Quarterly series:
http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2014/02/822014-q4-2013-data-on-services.html

Now, time to update full year figures for 2013.

First, y/y changes between 2012 and 2013:


Main point - even with 5.7% annual growth in ICT services and 22.3% growth in Administrative and support services, overall services sectors expanded by only 0.9% in 2013. Do note, this is a value index, so inflation is factored in too.

But what about longer term growth? Sadly, we only have comparable data from 2009 on. So here are the changes between 2009 and 2013, cumulative:


And two main drivers in the above are ICT services (remember those MNCs that book activity taking place across Europe into Ireland, as if Irish operations produced them?) and Wholesale Trade services (now exhausted and falling 6% y/y in 2013). In other words, nothing really is growing over the long range.

And with this, over the last 4 years, cumulated growth in all services recorded was just 3.5%. Inflation alone exceeded this by almost double.

But things are getting better, right? Growth is returning? Right? Here's a chart comparing growth in 2012 compared to 2011 and in 2013 compared to 2012. The positive values are where growth conditions improved, negative - where they deteriorated:


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