Tuesday, November 20, 2012

20/11/2012: CEPR Recession Dating puts EZ on downturn from Q3 2011


With some delay, it is worth taking a look at the official economic dating of euro area recessions via CEPR (full release here):


"Euro area GDP peaked in the third quarter of 2011 and, except for a minor rebound in the first quarter of 2012, it has declined since then according to currently available data. Although some other indicators of economic activity, most notably employment, had peaked earlier (see below), the Committee has determined that, in this episode, the peak of economic activity coincides with that of GDP. In other words, the euro area has been in recession since 2011Q3." [ emphasis mine]

Two charts:


And a chart with most current leading economic indicator and actual Q3 preliminary data on GDP growth:




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