16/7/2013: Doing Good By Altering Trade Flows & Incentives? Not so fast...

An interesting paper on commodities prices and policy responses to these based on actual experience with food prices inflation in 2008.


CEPR DP9555, titled "Food Price Spikes, Price Insulation, and Poverty" by Kym Anderson, Maros Ivanic, and Will Martin, published this month "considers the impact on world food prices of the changes in restrictions on trade in staple foods during the 2008 world food price crisis".

Those changes ranged from reductions in import protection (allowing for more imports to flow into the countries heavily dependent on imports of food) to increases in export restraints (aimed at reducing exports of food from the countries experiencing rising domestic prices).

The changes "were meant to partially insulate domestic markets from the spike in international prices. We find that this insulation added substantially to the spike in international prices for rice, wheat, maize and oilseeds". In other words, domestic measures to ease prices by distorting international trade flows resulted in higher international prices for these foodstuffs.

"As a result, while domestic prices rose less than they would have without insulation in some developing countries, in many other countries they rose more than in the absence of such insulation." Thus, domestic measures to combat food inflation have been beggar-thy-neighbour in their effect on other markets.

The study also estimates "the combined impact of such insulating behavior on poverty in various developing countries and globally." The study found "that the actual poverty-reducing impact of insulation is much less than its apparent impact, and that its net effect was to increase global poverty in 2008 by8 million, although this increase was not significantly different from zero." Doing good, it turns out, can cause harm. Or alternatively, you might think global trade regime in food is evil, but try telling that to 8 million people impoverished by altering that regime to superficially re-direct flows of food away from established trade patterns in just one (single and short-lived) episode.

Authors point of view on policies? "Since there are domestic policy instruments such as conditional cash transfers that could now provide social protection for the poor far more efficiently and equitably than variations in border restrictions, we suggest it is time to seek a multilateral agreement to desist from changing restrictions on trade when international food prices spike." No knee-jerk reactions, please...

16/7/2013: Italian Government Debt: All Is Going According to 'Plan'

Today's news:

ITALY'S GENERAL GOVERNMENT DEBT: €2.074 trillion (setting a new all-time record) and up on €2.0413 trillion prior… in other words, all is going according to the EU 'sustainability' plan.

A gentle reminder, back in April 2013, IMF forecast for Italy's 2013 GGD was EUR2.0405T, so that fiscal consolidation, then, is outperforming the targets, clearly… In fact, IMF forecast for 2014 GGD was EUR2.08055, so Italy is well into getting to 2014 target by the end of 2013. Keep digging, folks. Perhaps a French solution of raising taxes? Just for 'fairness' sake.

A chart via Ioan Smith @moved_average :

To update: via @lemasabachthani two charts:

Notice in the above chart the evolution of debt over years. And recall that Italy is cutting and cutting deficits. Clearly, something is amiss: there is austerity and there are continued increases in debt in levels terms, as well as in GDP-referenced terms. In other words, forget growth effects of austerity - Italian-styled policies are not cutting Government spending.

Also, notice the effect of the absurd Euro area 'solution' system whereby already over-indebted country like Italy is forced to take on more debt to fund 'adjustment' programmes for the peripheral states.

But even disregarding the above absurdity, there is a new spiking in funding requirements for the Italian Treasury.

16/7/2013: Irish ICT Services & Data Protection Harmonisation in Europe

An FT article today covers the issue of data protection regulation in Ireland and the divergence between Irish regime and the emerging European trend toward greater protection: http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/50fb3088-ed65-11e2-ad6e-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2ZBPI5mJ2

Removing all the usual bluster about 'one-stop-shop' and 'no light touch regulation here' that we hear from our authorities on a daily basis these days, the issue is of core importance to Ireland. Here's why:

ICT services are by now the sole most important contributor to the external balance of the country of all sectors, accounting for 14.93% of the entire credit side of the current account in Ireland and for 39.5% of Ireland's total services contribution to the credit side of the external balance.

And for a scary quote: ""We have great data protection laws in Germany but if Facebook is based in Ireland, then Irish law applies,” said Ms Merkel. “We wish that companies make clear to us in Europe to whom they give their data. This will have to be part of a [European] data protection directive.""

So, per usual, another comparative advantage to Ireland is being threatened? You bet!

H/T on the FT story:  Philippe Legrain @plegrain

16/7/2013: Sovereign --> Private Risk Transmission

Is ECB policy too tight, about right or too loose? Well, the answer depends on many factors and metrics of choice. One metric is the cost of credit to the private sector - influenced in part by the ECB benchmark rates and in part by lending conditions and environments. The two forces are not independent of each other, however. More specifically, markets conditions (e.g. raging sovereign debt crisis in the euro area in the 2010-2011) can have impact on how monetary policy is transmitted. Put differently, in addition to banks --> sovereign transmission of risks, there is also sovereign --> private sector credit transmission mechanism.

"The Impact of the Sovereign Debt Crisis on Bank Lending Rates in the Euro Area" by Stefano Neri, June 20, 2013, Bank of Italy Occasional Paper No. 170  argues that "since the early part of 2010 tensions in the sovereign debt markets of some euro-area countries have progressively distorted monetary and credit conditions". This resulted in constriction of "the ECB monetary policy transmission mechanism and raising the cost of loans to non-financial corporations and households." The study looks at the role that the sovereign markets tensions played in determining bank lending rates in the main euro-area countries. The author finds that sovereign debt markets tensions "have had a significant impact on the cost of [private sector] credit in the peripheral countries". More specifically, "if the spreads had remained constant at the average levels recorded in April 2010, the interest rates on new loans to non-financial corporations and on residential mortgage loans to households in the peripheral countries would have been, on average, lower by 130 and 60 basis points, respectively, at the end of 2011."

Link: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2284804

Few charts, showing simulated interest rates against actual rates. Note: red lines: actual data; blue dotted lines: simulated data starting from May 2010; blue dashed lines: simulated data starting from July 2011. Percentage points.

Interest rates on new loans to non-financial corporations: counterfactual simulations - peripheral countries:

15/7/2013: Irish Travel & Tourism Sector Impact on External Balance

Some interesting figures on Tourism and Travel contributions to the Current Account in Ireland over 1998-2012 period show that, at least year-and-a-half into State subsidisation of the sector under the current Government, there was little change on the sector exporting activity to show for the subsidies.

The numbers below clearly highlight the low impact of the core indigenous sector and subsidies allocated to it on the external balance in the Irish economy. Please keep in mind - I am only considering impact of the sector on external balance here, not on other economic performance parameters.

Let's crunch through some numbers:

• In 2012, Tourism & Travel (T&T) sector contributed EUR3,022 million to the credit side of the Current Account in Ireland - an improvement of just EUR12 million over 2011 and still EUR84 million below 2010 level. Excluding the absolute low (so far) of 2011, 2012 was the lowest reading since 2000 (remember - these are nominal figures). In real terms, this was lower than 2011 reading and the lowest year on record (since 1998).
• Because debit side of the sector (imports of T&T services and inputs) dropped over 2011-2012 from EUR4,817 million to EUR4,609 million, overall negative balance in the sector has shrunk from EUR1,807 million in 2011 to EUR1,587 million in 2012.
• But don't credit Government subsidies for the above. Increases on credit side were most likely driven by the net outward emigration and return visits by new emigrants. That is, given how low overall increase on the credit side was.
• Incidentally, the last time Irish T&T sector yielded a surplus on the balance side of the Current Account was back in 2000 and even then the surplus was puny at EUR100 million. Now, et's recall - in 2012, surplus on Transport sector side was EUR2,934 million, on Insurance side EUR2,650 million, on Financial Services side EUR2,465 million, on ICT services side EUR35,332 million and there were deficits of EUR28,867 on Royalties and Licenses side and EUR462 million on Communications side. All of which makes T&T sector, sort of not exactly a massively significant contributor to the current account. Which is not to say anything about it's contributions to other parts of the economy, of course.
• But in terms of credit side of the Current Account alone (the target of Irish Government's subsidies/supports in T&T sector case), we have: T&T contribution in 2012 at EUR3,022 million, against EUR4,609 million contribution by Transport sector, EUR8,910 million contribution by Insurance sector, EUR7,073 million contribution by Financial Services sector, EUR35,681 million contribution for ICT services, and EUR3,888 million contribution from the Royalties and Licenses line of credit. Only Communications sector - with credit contribution of EUR627 million was below the Tourism and Travel when it comes to gross credit to the Current Account.

Two charts:

15/7/2013: Two notes on HFT effects on the markets

Two interesting notes on the financial markets general operational issues in relation to High Frequency Trading (HFT).


A quick post from the Aziz Economics: http://azizonomics.com/2013/06/15/have-financial-markets-gone-post-human/ on the topic of HFT and data disclosure. Do read the Nanex post cited: http://www.nanex.net/aqck2/4302.html

Basic idea is that speed of light separates trades in the current market. With some data being released in different formats and to different audiences at different times, this difference drives a massive wedge between HFT trades and ordinary order flows.

And a couple of quotes:

"... is having a two second jump on the market “insider trading”? Well, yes — but it’s legal insider trading with consent, out in the open."

Yep, you can pay more to get information ahead of everyone and then pay a bit more to execute trades ahead of the mere mortals. You can then collect the upside (you'd have to be pretty dim-witted to collect a downside on such a trade).

And that means that the old-fashioned elbow-grease and hard labour analysing stuff, forecasting it, setting a strategy, hedging etc… all become subservient to the speed of access + speed of execution.

Human is gone. Algo is in...
"… perhaps the beginning of the end for human traders is just the end of the beginning for global financial markets. Perhaps that is less of a death sentence, and more of a liberation, allowing talented human labour that in recent years has been channelled into unproductive and obscure projects in big finance to move into more productive domains."

I don't know. But I'd like to think a person is still somewhere under the sun in the markets. Otherwise, how can be make any connection between the financial markets, instruments traded and real side of the economy, aside from the sides glimpsed through high-frequency-advanced-release mechanism?..



And a paper on HFT effects on market index here: http://www.nature.com/srep/2013/130702/srep02110/full/srep02110.html

The paper shows that in short time scales stocks have a stronger influence on the index, rather than index has on stocks that are constituents of the index. This is encouraging, as it suggests that within shorter time horizons, extreme HFT-linked instrumentation of index is far less of a driver than HFT-linked instrumentation of individual stocks. In other words, whatever relevant information is contained in the stock gets indeed transmitted into index at high frequency and this information dominates index-own changes.

15/7/2013: 12 Months Ahead, Things are Getting Darker...

Two charts on business expectations for 12 months forward, via Markit (full release here: http://www.markit.com/assets/en/docs/commentary/markit-economics/2013/jul/GLOBAL_Outlook_ENG_1307_PR.pdf)

First, global (lower levels represent lower percentage of businesses expecting growth in the next 12 months net of the percentage expecting contraction):

and now, regional

 Ouch!.. For euro area, things are clearly bad enough and they get worse when we compare June 2013 results to February 2013. For Japan, same and even sharper. US is in the pain zone too. UK throws strange outlier.

Would have been good to see actual percentages listed on the bars... but...

15/7/2013: Current Account Q1 2013: Extreme Imbalances in the Irish Economy

CSO recently released Balance of Payments stats for Q1 2013 - you can read the main headlines and see underlying data here.

Current account data is of more interest from my point of view. And it shows some changes both at a trend and at shorter-term levels, as well as the extremes of skewness in Irish economic activity in favour of the MNCs-dominated Financial and ICT services.

Let's run through the credit side (exports from Ireland) of the CA first.

Aggregate levels of exports (goods and services):

• Aggregate level (goods and services) exports run at EUR55.657bn in Q1 2013, down on EUR60.295bn in Q4 2012 and down on EUR58.034bn in Q1 2012. This marked the level of exports comparable to Q1 2011 (EUR55.570bn) before we adjust for inflation.
• Aggregate exports were dow 7.69% q/q in Q1 2013, having posted an increase of 1.22% q/q in Q4 2012. The rate of decline was 4.1% y/y compared to 2.19% rise in y/y figure for Q4 2012. 
• Current level of quarterly exports is down 12.03% on peak.
• Cumulated exports of goods and services for last 6 months were down 3.87% on previous 6 months and down 0.93% y/y. Last 12 months cumulated exports (12 months through March 2013) were still up 2.21% y/y. 

Chart above clearly shows the downward shift in the shorter-term trend from the peak of Q2 2012. The chart also shows that prior to the Q2 2012, from Q3 2009, rate of increase in overall exports was slower than in the period of Q1 2005-Q4 2007. This suggests that the 'exports-led recovery' of 2010-2011 was not rapid enough to compare with the previous periods of strong exports growth, such as Q1 1998-Q4 2000, and Q1 2005-Q4 2007. Instead, the rate of growth in exports was closer to that attained in Q1 2003 - Q4 2004 - the period coincident with growth post-collapse of the dot.com bubble.

Breakdown between goods and services exports:

• Credit on goods side (exports) shrunk 3.82% q/q in Q4 2012 and this was followed by the decline of 4.83% in Q1 2013. Y/y exports of goods were down 9.21% in Q1 2013, after posting a y/y increase of 0.52% in Q4 2012. Credit on goods side of the Current Account was down 18.16% on peak in Q1 2013. 
• Longer term series for credit on goods side were down 7.12% in current 6 months cumulative basis compared to previous 6 months period and y/y last 6 months cumulated credit on goods side was down 4.47%. Over the last 12 months (through March 2013) cumulated credit on merchandise side was down 1.74%.
• On services side of credit in current account, q/q rise of 4.65% in Q4 2012 was followed by a decline of 8.66% q/q in Q1 2013. Y/y changes are more solid: +8.90% in Q4 2012, slower at +2.68% in Q1 2013. Current levels are 8.66% below peak.
• Longer term trend for Services shows current 6 months cumulated services credits down 0.74% on previous 6 months - bad news. Good news, current 6 months cumulated credit up 5.84% y/y. 12 months cumulated credit through March 2013 is still solidly up 8.75% y/y.

On trends side: chart above shows worrying shorter-term changes downward in merchandise credit, from a gently up-sloping trend established in and contraction in Q4 2009, and a sharp short-term decline on robustly upward trend in services.

Breakdown in the core MNCs-driven services credits is in the following chart:

Balance side:

• Merchandise balance has deteriorated at an accelerated rate in Q1 2013. Net balance in Q1 2013 stood at EUR7.458 billion surplus, down from EUR8.616 billion in Q4 2012 and EUR8.401 billion in Q1 2012. Overall, this is the lowest Q1 balance on merchandise side since the disastrous Q1 2008.
• On Services, side, balance rose to EUR754 million in Q1 2013 from EUR238 million in Q4 2012 and is up on EUR178 million recorded in Q1 2012. Q1 2013 balance marked the third highest balance in the series, but the balance is rather sluggish compared to previous two top performing quarters (Q2 and Q3 2012).

• Overall balance is at EUR1.197 billion in Q1 2013, down on EUR2.895 billion in Q4 2012 and up on deficit of EUR704 million in Q1 2012. Good news is: Q1 2013 marked the 7th strongest quarterly balance on current account side of all quarters since Q1 1998, and the strongest first quarter of any year since Q1 1998.

 Chart below shows breakdown in balance contributions by key MNCs-driven services sector:

The chart above underpins the extremely skewed distribution of source of the current account balance. Taking three sources of the balance attributable to MNCs-driven trade in services: Financial Services, Computer Services, net of Royalties and licenses payments, the three sources of balance accounted for 21.5% of all credits recorded on the credit side of the Current Account, but 190% of the total balance. In other words, even when we factor out net outflows of funds to cover licenses and royalties, the resulting balance on two sub-sectors of ICT and financial services stood at EUR2.271 billion which is almost double the total current account surplus of EUR1.197billion recorded across the entire economy.

14/7/2013: French downgrade: it really is very simple...

Here's why France been downgraded last week and why it's outlook is stable:

The chart shows pretty clearly that over the last three years, outlook for the French economy has deteriorated and deteriorated just a notch faster than that for the Euro area. In other words, France - expected to outperform Euro area by 150 bps on real growth in April 2010 is now expected to outperform euro area by 45 bps. Meanwhile, relative to the world growth forecasts, if France was expected to grow at a rate that was around 45% of the world growth rate forecast back in April 2010, today it is expected to grow - on a cumulated basis between 2012 and 2015 - at the rate that is just 13% of the world rate.

It really all is that simple: France is basically priced as Euro area and Euro area is not warranting a AAA risk rating.

14/7/2013: Banking Reforms : recent links

Some recent articles on Banks Reforms in the global and EU context:

"A viable alternative to Basel III prudential rules" by Stefano Micossi (9 June 2013) argues that Basel III "…proposed reforms will fail to correct flaws in the old system. The new rules are even more complicated, opaque and open to manipulation. What is needed is a radical shift to prudential rule based on a straight capital ratio."
Link: http://www.voxeu.org/article/viable-alternative-basel-iii-prudential-rules


And in a typically Bruegelesque fashion, "Basel III: Europe’s interest is to comply" by Nicolas Véron (5 March 2013) argues that since "the EU was once a champion of global financial regulatory convergence", then "the EU should drop its lacklustre inertia and pursue Basel III because, in the end, it’s in its interests to comply. EU policymakers ought to aim at enabling the adoption of a Capital Requirements Regulation that would be fully compliant with Basel III."
Link: http://www.voxeu.org/article/basel-iii-europe-s-interest-comply

His colleague, Daniel Gros is of a view that diversification is a good thing, but diversification not i regulatory space. In his "EZ banking union with a sovereign virus" (14 June 2013) he argues that: "The doom-loop between banks and the national governments played a dominant role in the Eurozone crisis for Ireland and Cyprus. A Eurozone banking union is usually viewed as the solution. This column argues that the doom-loop cannot be undone as long as banks hold oversized amounts of their government’s debt. A simple solution would be to apply the general rule that banks are prohibited from holding more than a quarter of their capital in government bonds of any single sovereign." Here's the problem, however, in both Cyprus and Ireland sovereign bonds holdings of own governments were not a problem. In Cyprus the problem was holding of Greek Government bonds, and in Ireland, the contagion mechanism was from inter-bank lending and banks' own bonds issuance to the sovereign via a blanket 2008 Guarantee.
Link: http://www.voxeu.org/article/ez-banking-union-sovereign-virus


"Implementation of Basel III in the US will bring back the regulatory arbitrage problems under Basel I" by Takeo Hoshi (23 December 2012) says that "rejigging financial regulation is in vogue. But, in the world of international finance, how well do different regulatory systems join up?" In the US context, the author "argues that the US Dodd Frank Act and Basel III are, in part, incompatible and that harmonising them may lead to unintended consequences. The US ought to tread carefully here but should also try hard to maintain the spirit of better financial regulation."
Link: http://www.voxeu.org/article/implementation-basel-iii-us-will-bring-back-regulatory-arbitrage-problems-under-basel-i


There's a huge amount of opinion published on Voxeu.org on bank regulation: http://www.voxeu.org/debates/banking-reform-do-we-know-what-has-be-done


ZeroHedge classic: http://www.zerohedge.com/node/475643 "The Secret Sauce Of Iceland's Success Story: Debt Liquidation?" argues that "That Iceland is so far the only success story in the continent of Europe, which continues sliding into an ever deeper depressionary black hole, as a result of the complete destruction of its financial sector and its subsequent rise from the ashes, is by known to most. …As it turns out, perhaps the biggest jolt to Icelandic economic growth is what we said was the correct prescription for resolving not only the US but global growth malaise that struck in 2008: debt liquidation."


Irish Times covers the outright bizarre and sublimely ironic day-dreaming that is going on in Ireland's highest policy circles. The latests instalment is transformation of the IFSC into a sort of "We've screwed up so comprehensively, we can sell this as competence" story: http://www.irishtimes.com/business/sectors/financial-services/ifsc-faces-radical-rethink-as-effects-of-crash-become-clear-1.1460832?page=2

Pearls of wisdom: "Ryan’s paper makes eight proposals, including “relaunching the IFSC brand” along product lines – global asset finance, a global servicing platform and a global listing platform." All of which have been already in place for years to various success. "The document recommends the creation of a JobsHub to allow firms seeking staff to “find people quickly and cost effectively”." Other things: setting up IFSC as a centre for 'bad banks' on foot of 'experience already present in NAMA'. This is the logic of converting Dublin Bay into a global toxic refuse dump for the UK and European waste disposal, because we 'already have considerable expertise' at the Poolbeg waste facilities. And last, but not least: converting IFSC into "global centre of excellence for property"… Even the Irish Times could not have escaped the obvious irony present in this idea.


Last, but not least, Bloomberg report on Michel Barnier balmy ideas on 'Bank-Crisis' plans for the EU: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-09/eu-steels-for-battle-over-bank-resolution-plans-led-by-germany.html from July 9. "The European Union’s executive arm proposed procedures for handling failing banks with a 55 billion-euro ($70 billion) backstop, setting up a showdown with Germany over control of taxpayers’ cash." Good summery of current play on this.

13/7/2013: Work Ethic? Just Don't Try the Dail

Outside my weekend links on Arts and Sciences - the WLASze posts (the current ones are here), I rarely write about things that are outside economics. One recent example was a post on the conscience of voting (here).

In the wake of this week's debacle in the Dail, here are some links summarising the very nature of the legislative practice we have - the nature which highlights why true change is so hard to either design of implement in Ireland.

http://www.thejournal.ie/dail-bar-drinking-tds-drunk-abortion-vote-989988-Jul2013/?utm_source=shortlink

Choice quotes:
"Barry himself has already admitted he was in the Dáil Private Members’ Bar but told the Irish Independent he “wasn’t drinking excessively”. Another government TD, who did not wish to be named, admitted he had “a couple of pints”."

Background for those not living in Ireland: it is illegal to drive a car after consuming 1-2 drinks (depending on person, obviously). It is, apparently, completely legal to legislate on the matters of importance to the entire country while being on a 'couple of pints'.

"Fianna Fáil TD Dara Calleary said he had “one or two” at around 11pm on Wednesday along with a number of party colleagues but said he “stuck to tea and coffee after that”. His party colleague, Barry Cowen, also said he had “one or two” drinks but said there was nothing “out of the ordinary”."

In other words, there is an accepted and completely 'ordinary' proposition that a TD can drink 'one or two' drinks before taking a vote.

"Most TDs contacted by TheJournal.ie this week played down the level of drinking on Wednesday night and early Thursday, pointing out that there were higher levels of intoxication on the night that IBRC was liquidated in February. “The IBRC night was f**king mayhem,” one TD, who declined to be named, said. Sinn Féin president Gerry Adams has previously told this website that there were at least two TDs in his vicinity who were intoxicated on the night the former Anglo Irish Bank was liquidated."

Aside from confirming that alcohol abuse is at least occasionally present and completely tolerated, there is an issue of the language deployed by some of the Irish parliamentarians in conversing with the media.


And about 'perceptions' - Ireland is perhaps the most self-conscious country I ever been to. Our leaders and civil service and public sector elites, our business elites go to extraordinary lengths to promote Ireland in the 'right light' internationally. Now: http://www.thejournal.ie/reaction-to-tom-barry-grabbing-aine-collins-989707-Jul2013/


Note: I have never once encountered a work colleague - Irish or foreign - in Ireland who was intoxicated at work. Then again, I never worked in a place where there is working, taxpayers-subsidised bar that stays open during all-night working sessions and where there is seemingly no work ethic present other than a mindless and ethics-light obedience to the whip.

13/7/2013: WLASze Part 2: Weekend Links on Arts, Sciences and Zero Economics

This is the second post from my WLASze: Weekend Links on Arts, Sciences and zero economics.

The first post is available here and is referenced in several links below.


The Missing Link is something (someone) many have claimed to have seen, and no one really needs to find. Another missing link - the one no one expected to exist, but which has tremendous significance to our future, as reported in Science Daily has been established by two researchers. A deep link between two seemingly unconnected areas of modern science has been discovered by researchers from the Universities of Bristol and Geneva. Basic story is that physicist Dr Nicolas Brunner and mathematician Professor Noah Linden uncovered "a deep and unexpected connection between their two fields of expertise: game theory and quantum physics".

Game theory "gives a mathematical framework for describing a situation of conflict or cooperation between... rational players". "Quantum mechanics, the theory describing the physics of small objects." Dr Brunner and Professor Linden showed that the game theory and quantum mechanics co-share same concepts, such as the concept of locality. By bringing quantum mechanics models into game theoretic setting, the games outcomes were transformed, opening up a possibility for co-sharing of quantum technologies in a game-theoretic setting, e.g in the case of auctions. I would not be surprised if this opens up some AI opportunities in the future too...

Paywall-free link to paper is here: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1210.1173v1.pdf


Quantum Physics might be our only hope in resolving the game played by Covanta and Dublin City Managers against the residents of the Dublin Bay-adjoining communities - the game of turning Poolbeg peninsula into a complete toxic dump. But should some magic get us rid of the Covanta crowd and their Grand Incinerator, there are some ideas we can deploy around Poolbeg. One example - get rid of the industrial wasteland by converting the space into habitable and social space.


While on the theme of liveable architecture, here's a lovely conceptual modern low-density house, from Argentinian practice.


More on architecture. From small scale to large. And where else do they do large as Large? Of course, in China.

There is some strange fascination in China with lattice architecture form. Perhaps it is purity of mathematical abstraction - the non-threatening semiotics of pure maths? Social escapism in the seemingly structured and orderly? Or is it the historical nostalgia to lattice as a form of space capture or, for some, people capture? I am not sure. But it does look like much of contemporary 'visionary' architecture in China is about lattice constructs…


Enough of buildings, let's switch to art.

One of my all-time favourite painters [I share this with Jean-Luc Godard, who is not my favourite film maker at all], under-appreciated and under-rated Nicolas de Staël. I sadly missed his exhibition in NYC. Here's his Méditerranée, Le Lavandou, 1952, Oil on canvas, 65 by 81 cm.

De Stael is about bold shape, brushstroke and even bolder use of shadow and light, and colour. He is subtly unbalanced in composition and boldly unbalanced in geometry - two juxtapositions that were similar to Morandi and some other contemporaries. But De Stael also knows depth - brilliantly so. He is a master of abstract landscape or rather space-scape as he transformed the use of landscape perspective to other compositional works, including still-life.


Into an entirely different world next: Brilliant work by the Iraqi artist Adel Abidin, who resides in Helsinki:  Symphony [Symphony of Death], 2012, one channel video installation, 3’15’’, video still

And a good interview with him here: http://www.guernicamag.com/art/bird-and-stone/


Next to sculpture: Bruno Walpoth Wood Carved Sculptures by one of the brilliant Italian sculptors of today:

Joseph Brodsky: "Now the purpose of evolution is the survival neither of the fittest nor of the defeatist. Were it the former, we would have to settle for Arnold Schwarzenegger; were it the latter, which ethically is a more sound proposition, we'd have to make do with Woody Allen. The purpose of evolution, believe it or not, is beauty, which survives it all and generates truth simply by being a fusion of the mental and the sensual." He'd disagree in absolute beauty being embodied in anything but a word. But do take the above images in consideration, will you?.. They are an unspoken word, a Nostalgic word of sorts. They convey thought…


Having tied Nostlagia - a major theme in my first part of this weekend's WLASze (Part 1 linked above) - to Walpoth's work, now to the poetic Nostalgia of abandoned spaces and beyond photography - in painting - Matt Bahen 

Good write up about the painter: http://www.akrylic.com/2012/05/just-before-the-dawn-the-work-of-matt-bahen/ . Recall Richard Artschwager in Part 1 of this week's WLASze, and remember Richard Diebenkorn here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2013/06/2862013-wlasze-part-1-weekend-links-on.html - it's a cross of themes.


Having posted a link on the debate between causality and correlation (in the Part 1 of WLSAze linked above), let's dig slightly deeper into the nature of inquiry. Here's a slightly windy post on the topic of scientific vs religious systems of thought by E.M. Johnson for Scientific American. You have to read a bit before hitting the main point: "Science is not concerned with truth, it is concerned with doubt. As I’ve discussed before, it is this that makes science and religious faith fundamentally different."

Much of the rest of the post is also interesting. It focuses, in my view, on why science as a system (and religion too) abhors doubt. The author does not say so outright, but I can tell you - doubt is not a publishable concept in science. Majority of peer reviewed publications are on topics of affirmation of empirical or theoretical conjectures. Try writing a critique, doubting something without offering an affirmative counter-proposition. Likelihood is - you will get an outright rejection letter.


Enjoy! And do come back to this blog...