16/5/17: Navigating the Bubbling Up Investment Seas

Here are the slides from my presentation at the IPU Conference 2017 two weeks ago:

25/9/2014: Geopolitical Risks Weigh on Global Growth Expectations into Q1 2015

Some interesting insights into global economic conditions and expectations forward from the McKinsey Global executives survey for Q3 2014 (analysis link here):

Geopolitical Instability is still core threat to the global economy:

But it is not related directly to Ukraine. Instead, the source of key instability is MENA:

And expected impact of the risk is in North America, non-Euro area EU (presumably this has to be linked to Ukraine) and the Eurozone:

Gloom and doom overall prevail today, most significantly in North America (June-September swing in worsening expectations from 7% of respondents to 27%), Europe (from 11% of respondents to 28%):

And looking forward (6 months out), poor outlook (expected deterioration) remains in Europe (30%, a decline from 34% of respondents compared to current):

This survey supports recent revisions to global growth by a number of forecasters. 

15/7/2013: 12 Months Ahead, Things are Getting Darker...

Two charts on business expectations for 12 months forward, via Markit (full release here: http://www.markit.com/assets/en/docs/commentary/markit-economics/2013/jul/GLOBAL_Outlook_ENG_1307_PR.pdf)

First, global (lower levels represent lower percentage of businesses expecting growth in the next 12 months net of the percentage expecting contraction):

and now, regional

 Ouch!.. For euro area, things are clearly bad enough and they get worse when we compare June 2013 results to February 2013. For Japan, same and even sharper. US is in the pain zone too. UK throws strange outlier.

Would have been good to see actual percentages listed on the bars... but...