Friday, June 26, 2015

26/6/15: Russian Economy: Domestic Demand Still Weak in May

Some latest Russian stats to scare the pants off everyone:

  • Investment is down 7.5% y/y in May and in January-May cumulative drop in Investment is 5% y/y. 
  • Retail sales are down 9% y/y in May and down 7.5% y/y in January-May 2015. January-May seasonally-adjusted sales, however are down primarily due to January drop.
  • Real disposable incomes are down 5% y/y in both April and May.
  • Industrial production is down 8% y/y in May, January-May decline is 4%.
  • Estimated GDP is down 3.2% y/y in January-May 2015 based on Economy Ministry estimates and 3.4% y/y based on Vnesheconombank estimates. This suggests acceleration in contraction compared to 1Q 2015 when the economy shrunk 2.2% based on first revision of the earlier estimate. Latest consensus forecast is for full year real GDP decline of 2.7-3.5% on 2014.  Which is an improvement on past forecasts. 
Problem is, fifth month into the year, and the signs of stabilisation are still quite contradictory and major parameters on domestic demand size are still volatile. 

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