Economics 02/05/2010: World Debt Wish 3

Having covered the aggregate debt levels (here) and Government debt (here), now its time to move on to Banks. And some surprising stuff the numbers are throwing:
The UK is clearly an outlier in the entire global series. This is, of course, due to two factors - firstly, the international hub position of London, and secondly - the over-reliance of European and other non-US economies on banks lending (as opposed to the much more significant role played by equities and bonds in the US). Irish reliance on banking sector is also formidable. Also notice that

1. Irish banking deleveraging began in 2008, similar to other countries;
2. Recall from the previous post that Governments ramp up of liabilities in most countries, unlike Ireland, has began with a lag to banks deleveraging.
   

These two facts indicate that Irish banks unable to deleverage outside the state aid support, which, of course simply means that instead of writing down their debts, they re-loaded them onto us, the taxpayers.

Taking out the UK, as an influential outlier:
The remarkable part of the above picture is that virtually no banking sector amongst the top 10 debtor nations has managed to deleverage to anywhere near pre 2006 levels. The crisis, folks, has not gone away - it has been covered up with a thick layer of state-issued liquidity. In other words, printing presses, not structural reforms, what has been working over time to 'resolve' the crisis. And this can only mean two possible outcomes: high inflation or renewed crisis. Since the former relies at least on some recovery in consumer ability to take on new debt, the only way we can avoid a double-dip crisis scenario is if consumers have deleveraged more than the banks did during the last two years. I will be moving on to the real economy sector in my later posts, but for now let me give you an idea of the findings - there was virtually no deleveraging of consumers. Instead, the real economy is now deeply in debt itself.

Back to the banks for now. Chart above shows that the story of banks deleveraging is even worse in the second tier of debtor nations. In fact, with exception of Belgium, no banking system amongst the 11th-20th ranked debtor nations has managed to reduce the levels of debt incurred during the bubble formation.

Chart below once again highlights the nature of the UK banking system
Zooming onto the main group of countries (ex-UK):
All of the banking sectors in top 36 debtor countries are carrying more debt today than they did in Q4 2003. And Ireland once again stands out as the most debt-dependent country in the group when it comes to the rate of growth in banking liabilities since 2003.

So let us summarize the findings so far:

1. Irish Government debt position is by far not the strongest today - in absolute terms, our General Government Debt levels rank 13th highest in the world, up from 19th back in 2003 Q4.
2. Irish Government debt has been rising faster than that of the other 36 most-indebted countries between 2003 and the end of 2009.
   
3. Irish banking sector debt position is 8th highest in the world, up from 10th highest in Q4 2003 - in absolute dollar terms.
4. Irish banks deleveraging has in effect resulted in a swap of private liabilities for public liabilities, with no net reduction in overall economy's debt levels.
   

From the world economy point of view:

1. Global debt levels remain at extremely high levels and deleveraging has not taken place to the extent needed to resolve the crisis.
2. Private (ex-Banks and ex-Government) sectors debt remains at virtually peak level consistent with the bubble.
3. Banks deleveraging also has fallen short of what would be required to bring the debt levels down to more realistic levels.

Next, I will be looking at the data on total debt across 36 economies. Stay tuned.

Economics 02/05/2010: World Debt Wish 2

Continuing with a tour through the world debt numbers, let's take a look at General Government Debt levels:
Chart above shows the dynamics of GGD over the last 7 years. In majority of cases, except for the US, there has been virtually no break in the debt dynamics over the last two years, compared with the past. What does this mean?

1. Firstly, this means that the entire talk about 'massive' Keynesian stimuli around the world is bogus - the governments might have re-directed their spending to new activities in response to the crisis, but the path they chose to expand their spending in the last two years is largely the same they were operating on during the boom.
2. Secondly, this clearly shows that in 9 out of top 10 debtor nations, Governments were operating pro-cyclical fiscal policies during the boom - in other words, to maintain their role in the society, governments required increasingly greater and greater spending - a classic definition of an addiction.
3. Thirdly, the US Republicans were about as eager to burn taxpayers cash as the US Democrats.

The same patterns are not fully present amongst smaller debtors:
In the chart above:

1. With exception of Norway and Turkey, all governments engaged in a much more aggressive ramp up of expenditures during the last two years than before the crisis.
   
2. All governments, with exception of Ireland, that did engage in extensive GGD increases during the crisis did so only starting in 2009.
   
3. Ireland deployed massive increases in GGD back in 2008 - before any other country.
4. Stimulus - in so far as our GGD increases go - in Ireland has been the most dramatic of all other comparator economies.
5. Within a span of 7 years, Irish Government has pushed the country from 19th most indebted in the world in absolute terms to 13th. This is despite the fact that our economy is a minnow compared to the rest of the top 20 debtor nations club.

Ireland's GDP ranked 53rd in the world by the IMF in 2009, 51st by the World Bank and 54th by CIA. Our Government debt ranked 13th... Getting concerned? Or still calling for the Government to borrow more and spend more?
Obviously, it is worth taking a look at the relationship between the starting debt positions and the current levels of government debt. Scatter plot above maps all 36 countries that are the top debtor nations around the world. The US is a significant outlier, so let us zoom closer:
What the chart above illustrates is that Ireland is in the league of its own when it comes to the government reliance on debt financing:

1. Between 2003 and 2009 Irish Government has engaged in the most extreme (relative to peers) debt expansion of all highly indebted nations (compare distance to regression line relative to levels of debt in 2003).
2. While majority of the 36 top debtor nations did run increases in debt levels between 2003 and 2009, Ireland's position is extreme in absolute terms (compare distance to the 1-1 line relative to 2003 debt)
   

In the next post, I will be taking a closer look at the Banks debts, followed by the post analysing total debt levels. The final post of the series will put together debt figures relative to GDP. Stay tuned.

Economics 01/05/2010: World Debt Wish 1

The last two weeks have thrown into the spotlight the reality of the troubled global economy we will be facing for years to come. This reality comes not the courtesy of the reckless banks and excessively greedy speculators. Instead, the 'new normal' is being powered by the same agency that many have come to see as the agent of salvation to the excesses of the private markets - the state.

By all numbers, world's largest governments are now broke. Insolvent and unable, due to political paralysis, to deal with the problem they face. This problem is compounded by the fact that in addition to the governments, the real economies are also broke. Unable to bear the weight of massive debt accumulated during 2003-2007 period, plus the expected burden of the government debts. The banks might have started the process over the period of 2006-2007, but before they did so, world governments were firmly on the path of unsustainable financing. The follies promoted and financed by the public purses in the developed world, which consumed hundreds of billions of taxpayers money, included a wide range of activities - from expansions of the public sector, to vast subsidies on environmental measures (most going to the least verifiable activities aimed at combating climate change instead of basic research, new technology development and investments in quality of life improvements), to pie-in-the-sky global economic development agendas and third world debt workouts. Geopolitical grandstanding, from aspirational 'democratization' to fictional 'unifications' also contributed significantly to the problem.

Now, the very economies that jostled for the positions of global power are suffering from debt overhang. And yet, rhetoric has not changed. Like a shopaholic unable to stop pulling out his credit card at every till in a shopping mall, world's leading economies cannot resist the temptation of vastly expanding public expenditure. In short, the governments around the world are now clearly exhibiting the same pattern of addictive behavior toward debt as a heroin junkie. The world has a debt wish!

Symptoms first. I took 36 countries data from the joint IMF/BIS/World Bank database on external debt positions - these countries represent world's largest debtor nations. Here are the charts (note, I will be publishing these charts over a number of posts in the next couple of days, so do come back for more).
The first chart above shows the overall composition of the total debts held by the world's largest 36 debtor nations. There are several apparent trends shown in this data:

1. Government borrowing did not accelerate dramatically during the current crisis. Instead, the entire government debt was showing clear pro-cyclical pattern during the boom years 2003-2007. In other words, the junkie was out for a fix well before the crisis hit.
2. Only in 2006-2007 did the banks managed to expand significantly their borrowing.
3. Globally, this cumulated banks debt mountain remains largely unaddressed despite a very significant contraction in banks-held debt from the peak. In other words, for all its destructive power, the crisis failed to bring banks debt balances back in line with pre-bubble levels of, say 2003-2004.
4. Global debt now stands dangerously close to the bubble peak.

A closer look at banks and governments
The following facts arise from the above chart:

1. Private sector debt globally falls below banks sector debt (see below for the case of Ireland).
2. Private sector debt deleveraging basically did not take place during the current crisis with non-banks and non-sovereign levels of debt remaining static close to the peak of Q4 2007.
   

Thus, world's largest debtors (and incidentally largest economies) remain exceptionally weak when it comes to their real economic activity reliance on debt financing.

And now on to Ireland:
The country that, according to the Government, has done so many things right in 2009 has... well:

1. Managed to virtually completely avoid any deleveraging in the current crisis, with our debt levels remaining at the peak levels attained (remember - all of the world peaked in debt levels back in Q4 2007) in Q4 2008.
2. There has been a marked increase in the rate of accumulation of government debt in Ireland in 2008-2009, again in departure from the world experience.
3. Irish banks have experienced steady deleveraging since Q4 2007 although this process is still to weak to return them to the healthier levels of 2003-2004.
4. Irish households and the rest of the real economy in Ireland have actually accumulated a debt mountain greater than our banking sector - a position that is different from the rest of the world.
   
5. There has been no deleveraging in the real economy, which continues to increase overall indebtedness.

In short, Irish debt position is deeply sicker than that of the rest of the largest debtor nations.

At this junction, data calls for some comparative analysis of the various debtor nations. This will be the subject of my next post on the topic. Tune in...

Economics 30/04/2010: Minister Lenihan's statements in the Dail

Some interesting points on Nama, coming out of Minister Lenihan's answers to Dail questions this Wednesday, April 28 (emphasis is mine):

"The NAMA SPV structure has a subscribed capital of €100m. As explained to the Dail at the time of the legislation, and subsequently agreed with the EU, 49% of this capital was advanced by NAMA and 51% by private investors.

Three private investors, namely, Irish Life Investment Managers, New Ireland Assurance and a group of clients of Allied Irish Banks Investment Managers, have each invested €17m in the vehicle. It is important to note that in each case the beneficial owners of the investment are pension funds or other clients of these investment companies and not the parent credit institution. [It is equally important to note that in each case the full owner of each one of these entities is an institution directly involved either in Nama or in Banks Guarantee scheme, which, of course, under normal rules of engagement would imply potential conflict of interest]

The SPV has been established in accordance with Eurostat rules. The Board of the SPV is chaired by the CEO of NAMA and has three NAMA nominated directors with the private investors retaining the right to nominate a further three directors. Thus the SPV is structured in such a manner that NAMA representatives will maintain an effective veto over decisions of the SPV Board. [Thus the so-called 'veto' is a de facto, not de jure. Should one of the Nama representatives on the board fall ill, be delayed in travel or be absent on some state-sponsored junket, in absence of the said member, it is quite possible - even if only in theory - that the veto power can pass over to the 'private' owners of SPV.]

Further:

"In line with my statement to the House on 30 March on the banking situation, I subsequently issued Promissory Notes on 31 March to Anglo Irish Bank and Irish Nationwide Building Society. These Notes will ensure that both institutions continue to meet their regulatory capital requirements. The initial principal amount of the Note that issued to Anglo Irish Bank is €8.3bn and to INBS it is €2.6bn. As I indicated in my recent statement, it is likely that Anglo will need further capital in due course but the extent and timing of such further support remains to be determined.

The terms of the Promissory Notes that issued to both institutions on 31 March are substantively the same and, inter alia, provide that 10% of the principal amount will, if demanded by the institution, be paid each year and that the first such payment will fall due for payment from the Central Fund on 31 March 2011. An annual interest coupon, related to Government bond yields, is also payable on the Promissory Notes which the Minister has absolute discretion to pay on the due date or to add to the principal amount. [So, in contradiction to the deeply-informed Dara O'Brien TD, it is the state who will be paying interest to the banks. Not the other way around]

This ensures that the Note meets accounting requirements to be “fair valued” at the principal amount in the annual accounts of each institution, consistent with the regulatory capital requirements. [This sentence is an example of Minister's habitual abuse of financial terminology, in so far as it makes absolutely no rational sense to anyone even vaguely familiar with finance. 'Fair valued' must refer to a benchmark, being a comparative/relative term. 'Fair valued at the principal amount' is gobbledygook as principal amount - the face value of the bond/note can only be valued in relation to the price of the bond or yield on the bond, none of which are referenced in Minister's statement. Furthermore, fair value concept does not refer to the regulator capital requirements. It refers only - I repeat, only - to the market value of the bond/note.]

In the event of a winding-up of either institution, the aggregate of the outstanding principal amount and any unpaid interest that has accrued on the institution’s Note falls due for immediate payment. [So, at least in theory, the Exchequer might face an immediate call for billions of euros in cash... what provisions have been made to ensure we will have this covered? How will Minister Lenihan be able to raise such funding even if the economy is not in crisis? What will be the additional cost of having to raise such funding in a fire-issue of a new state bond? Has the Minister established adequate pricing scheme to charge the banks for the taxpayers assuming such a risk or has he 'gifted' this risk premium away, thereby potentially exposing taxpayers to added hundreds of millions in new costs of such emergency issuance?]

The Deputy may also wish to note that, as indicated in my banking statement of 30 March, the use of Promissory Notes means that the institution’s capital requirements are met in a way which spreads the cash payments over a number of years and thereby reduces the funding burden on the Exchequer that would otherwise arise in the current year. [This statement clearly shows that Minister Lenihan does not understand the basics of interest rate/yield curve relationships. He implicitly assumes that in the future, the state borrowing costs will be lower than they are today. There is absolutely no reason for such an assumption.]

Economics 30/04/2010: Anglo Irish Bank shutdown costs

We are once again swamped with the 'new numbers' from the DofF and Minister Lenihan. This time the latest 'facts' relate to the potential cost of shutting down Anglo. Yesterday, Mary Coughlan stated in the Dail that the cost of an immediate liquidation of the bank had been prohibitive (per Irish times - here). Today, the unquestioning media squad is reporting that the cost of shutting down Anglo will be "more than €100 billion" (The Irish Independent, page 17). This figure has been floated out by the Anglo's paid-public-'experts'-turn-paid-executives, like Mr Dukes, and by the DofF talk-heads.

In reality this number is simply plain wrong, representing, simultaneously, a combination of

• bad arithmetic, and
• poor understanding of finance

Here is why. Take Anglo's balancesheet:

Assets of €72 billion:

• Loans to customers of €65 billion (with €35 billion earmarked for Nama)
• Loans in the interbank markets (loans to other banks) of €7 billion
• Risk-adjusting loans to customers to reflect an impairment charge of 60% implies recoverable loans of €26 billion (without a need to call in Nama at all).

Total recoverable assets of €34 billion.

Liabilities to customers and the ECB of €60 billion

• Customers' deposits of €27 billion
• Banks and ECB deposits of €33 billion

Thus, the real taxpayers' liability is €60bn-€34bn=€26 billion. Not €70 billion, nor €100 billion claimed by the various parties.

You might ask me 2 questions at this junction:

1. "What about bond holders?" Ok, there are €15 billion worth of senior bond holders and €2.3 billion of subordinated bond holders. These bondholders - all institutional - have been begging the State for years to keep banking sector lightly regulated. And I agree with them on this, in principle (omitting details here). As a part of their pleas, we've been repeatedly told that markets are able to price risks better than any regulator can. And I agree with them on this as well. So, as a consequence of their own stated desires and claimed powers, the bond holders should be made to bear the responsibility for their own errors in pricing risks. In other words, the Government should tell them to count their losses. This is what the market is all about and this, not the rescue by taxpayers, is what the real market participants expect from Ireland Inc. Lastly, on this point, there is not a single financial instrument or contract that legally requires the Irish taxpayers to foot the bill for non-sovereign investment undertaking. Full stop. Cut the guarantee on all Anglo bondholders and send them packing. Note: even if we are to cover bondholders in full, Anglo wind down will cost no more than €39 billion. Not €70 billion, nor €100 billion.
   
2. "How can the winding down take place?" Simple - we proceed to gradually, over the next 5 years, to sell assets. Depositors remain guaranteed, so we can rest assured they will not call in their deposits all at the same time. As we realize the value of the assets, we gradually close off the liabilities. To do this, bank staff can be reduced by over 50% and their wages (currently averaging €110,515 per annum per employee) can be cut by the same proportion. This is it, folks - simple.

Now, let me ask you two questions in return:

1. Why are Messrs Dukes, Lenihan etc are claiming that the winding down Anglo will cost €70-100 billion? Is it because (a) they have no idea and are 'inventing' numbers as they go? or (b) they have an ulterior motive to claim improbably high figures to continue dragging out this Anglo saga over 20 years?
2. Why have the Irish taxpayers paid hundreds of thousands of euros to 'consultants' who cannot come up with a simple, straight forward plan for dealing with Anglo to date, despite the fact that people like Peter Mathews (to whom I am obliged for much of the figures quoted above), Brian Lucey, Karl Whelan and myself have provided viable alternatives for dealing with the 'bank' free of charge?

Economics 29/04/2010: House prices peak to peak cycle

Back in October last year I did an estimate, based on the IMF model, of the peak-to-peak duration of the current housing slump. Now's time to do some updating on this matter.

Assumptions:

• Peak to trough correction in real prices of -40-43%;
• Growth rates - resuming in 2011: 2011-2013 +3.6% - in excess of the long-term growth rate estimate for Ireland in the current GFSR (2.6%), slowing to 3% in 2014-2016, then to 2.7% in 2017-2019 and 2.6% thereafter.

Using peak of Q2 2007 to assumed trough in Q3 2010, we have the full cycle duration of between 95 and 87 quarters, taking us back to 2007 peak by either 2029 or 2031.

If bottom hits at -48%, we get return to 2007 peak by 2034, with 107 quarters from peak to peak cycle.

Now, think Nama will run out in 2015? or 2020?

If Nama sets shut-off date in 2015, it is likely to get between 61 and 70 cents on the euro for each value underlying the loan. Assuming loans LTV of 70% and default rate of 30% on loans transferred to Nama (extremely conservative assumptions, but these allow a cushion on some interest collected), the value of Nama realized book will be 26 cents on the euro and 30 cents on the euro, or less than 50% of the post-discounted price paid!

If Nama shuts down in 2020, the above two figures will be 30 cents and 34 cents on the euro paid or just around 50% of the post-discounted price paid!

Now, that's what I would call overpaying for the loans.

Economics 29/04/2010: Debt crisis is spreading

Another credit downgrade from S&P, this time for Spain, from AA+ to AA with negative outlook, based on the outlook for years of private sector deleveraging and low growth. Spain, as you can see, is severely in red in terms of debt, ranking 14th in the world. Spain's external liabilities stand at 186.1% or $2.55 trillion (as of 2009 Q3) against estimated 2009 GDP of $1.37 trillion.

The country is actually worse off in terms of debt than Greece which has ranks 16th at debt at 170.5% of GDP or $581.68 billion, with 2009 GDP of $341 billion.

Of course, Ireland is world's number 1 debtor nation with external debt of 1,312% of GDP (IFSC-inclusive) of $2.32 trillion in Q3 2009 against the GDP of $176.9 billion. Of course, part of this debt is IFSC, but then, again, we really do not have a claim on our GDP either, with GNP being a more real measure of our income. So on the net, our debts - the actual Irish economy's debts - are somewhere in the neighborhood of 740%. This is still leagues above the UK - the second most indebted nation in the world - which has the debt to GDP ratio of 'only' 426%!

The S&P also provided estimate for expected recovery rate on Greek bonds, which the agency put at 30-50%. In other words, S&P expects investors in Greek bonds to be paid no more than 30-50 cents on the euro. Yesterday on twitter I suggested that "Greek debt should be renegotiated @ 50cents on the euro - severe default. Portugal's @ 80 cents - mild default, Irish @ 70-75 cents". Looks like someone (S&P) agrees. Before it is too late, before German and other European taxpayers have poured hundreds of billions of euro into the PIIGS black hole of delinquent public finances, Europe should cut losses and force Greece and Portugal to renegotiate their liabilities. If Ireland and Spain were to elect to follow, so be it. Of course, in Irish case, the debt re-negotiations should cover private debts, not public debt.

Just how many billions of euros are EU taxpayers in for for the folly of admitting Greece - a country that spent 90 years of the last 180 (since 1829) in defaults on its debts - into the common currency area? Well, Greek 2-year bonds were traded at yields of 26% yesterday at one point in time. This is pricing that's in excess of pretty much every developing country, save for basket cases which practically cannot issue bonds at all.

IMF's Dominique Strauss Kahn has told Bundestag yesterday that Greek package will be

• €100-120bn for three years;
• Which means German taxpayers are on the hook for €67 billion over 3 years, not €25 billion that Germany ‘s economics minister was signing for in the original deal;
• Ireland's contribution will also have to rise to €4 billion over 3 years, not €500 million we originally were told we will have to contribute;
• Greece will not be forced to restructure or reschedule debt
• The loans to Greece will be subordinated to existent bondholders, which means that if in the end Greece does pay 30-50 cents on the euro to the latter, European taxpayers will be lucky to get 10 cents on the euro.

The whole deal is now looking like a massive subsidy for Greece and entails absolutely no protection to European taxpayers.

But internationally, EU news are getting darker and darker by the minute. Last night Bloomberg reported that EU countries are in for estimated €600 billion bill for the fiscal crises that have spread across the block. That's the cost, in the end, of all the tacky policy follies that Brussels endorsed and pushed through over the last 10 years -

• from the Lisbon Agenda, which was supposed to deliver EU to the position of economic superiority over the US by 2010,
  
• to the Social Economy, which was supposed to deliver... well, who knows what...
  
• to the Knowledge Economy, which was aiming to turn us all into brains in a Petri Dish
• to the absolutely outlandish HIPCI and HIPCII agendas wholeheartedly embraced by the EU, which were supposed to deliver debt relief to the world's real basket cases (before Greece and other PIIGS took the spotlight away from them), and the rest of the international white elephants.

The problem, of course, is that €600 billion price tag for fiscal excesses has generated preciously little in returns (despite what folks at Tasc keep telling us about the fiscal stimulus) which means we will have to pay for it out of our long term wealth. The same wealth that has been demolished by the recession and the financial markets collapse!

Economics 28/04/2010: 'Duin de rite ting'

A brilliant chart from one of the readers (hat tip to Jonathan):
May Toyota forgive me a pun, but is this a stuck (downward) accelerator problem?.. After all the 'right things' done to our economy, why are we still leagues away from even our fellow PIIGS travelers?

Economics 28/04/2010: More on Greece contagion

Contagion from Greece is clearly a problem for the EU at this stage. Looking back into some older data, February 2010 note from Credit Suisse (linked here)
Spot Ireland at position number 7? That was then. The figures refer to 2009, which means that since then, pressures on Iceland, Hungary and Latvia have receded. In addition:

• Our 2009 deficit has been revised to 14.3%
• Our CA deficit has worsened (as imports are falling at a lower rate and exports are now performing less robustly)

So re-weighting the score in the right hand column of the table, Ireland gets closer to 38.1-38.3, Portugal moves to 39.4-39.5, Greece to 45. We are number 3 on the list...


PS: If you want to see an example of absolutely and even alarmingly distorted logic - read this. One of the best examples of bizarre ramblings that pass for 'analysis' in Ireland. I mean what else can you call a note that:

• Admits that Ireland has record deficits of all EU countries;
• Admits that debt levels are very high;
• Admits that we are close to Greece;
• Admits that Greece is deep trouble, and then
• States that "The Greek recesion [sic] had been milder than the EU average, and recovering, before austerity measures were adopted" and thus
  
• Makes an implicit claim that the spectacular collapse of Greek economy witnessed by the entire world and threatening contagion to all of the EU has been caused by Greece not running enough deficits!
• And concludes that: "By contrast, other EU countries adopted fiscal stimulus measures [without identifying which states did so, what were the implications of these, etc]. Their debt has stabilised along with economic activity [a mad claim, given that stimulus measures were financed out of debt increases] and they have been rewarded with much lower bond yields than Ireland [absolute groundless claim, as none of the countries that adopted stimulus had the same fundamentals as Ireland going into the recession or during the recession and furthermore, none of the countries, other than PIIGS experienced similar bond yields dynamics to Ireland]"

I mean this stuff is actually factually incorrect and logically inconsistent!

Economics 28/04/2010: Our week so far

So will Germany open a 'needle exchange' for Europe's debt junkies (para-phrasing Laughinbear comment)? Check CNBC's rankings of debt by nation (here - all rankings slide show)... Greece is No 16, Ireland is No1! Link here.

Ireland 10-year yields are at 5.6% and moving in tandem with Portugal and Greece. Here is a revealing weekly step-function for our 10-year notes (hat tip to Brian Lucey):

Economics 27/04/2010: Greece - the end is tragic!

2-year yields close of today:
EU = 0.7%
Ireland = 3.6%
Portugal=4.8%
Greece = 16.4%
This is it, folks. No where else to run. Greek interest on public debt would swallow over 19 percent of their GDP annually!

Clearly, Ireland should do what Greece did, according to the folks at Tasc, the Irish Times and in the Siptu building. Ramp up borrowing to stimulate economy...

Economics 27/04/2010: Greece & Ireland - tied by the risk of contagion

As the Greek, Portuguese, Italian and Irish bonds are melting in the markets' gaze at the countries fundamentals, one quick reference number is worth repeating. Per Chapter 1 of the latest Global Financial Stability Report from the IMF (linked here), the overall risk of contagion from a systemic crisis in one Euro area country to another (as measured by the percentage point contribution to total distress probability) for Greece was:

Contagion from Greece to:
October 2008-March 2009

• Portugal = 9.8%
  
• Italy = 9.9%
  
• Ireland = 12.5% (highest of all Euro area countries)
  
• Spain = 9.0% (in line with the Euro area total)
  
• Euro area as a whole = 8.8%

October 2009-February 2010

• Portugal = 23.6% (in line with the Euro area total) - up 13.8 pps
  
• Italy = 24.2% - up 14.3pps
  
• Ireland = 31.3% (highest of all Euro area countries) - up 18.8 pps
  
• Spain = 23.9% (in line with the Euro area total) - up 14.9 pps
  
• Euro area as a whole = 21.4% - up 12.6 pps
  

So spot the odd one here. As the crisis evolved, despite our Government's talk about 'Ireland turning the corner' and 'doing the right thing', our economy became actually closer and closer linked to Greece. More so than any other member of the PIIGS club. Some achievement that is...

Now, spot the similarity in responses to the crisis in Greece (here) and Ireland (here) and tell me - are we really that much better off in terms of macro fundamentals than Greece, especially given that Greek policymakers are at the very least not held hostage to a Social Partnership in which the likes of Tasc-informed Unions have a direct say?