Wednesday, November 30, 2011

20/11/2011: Live Register - November

Live Register continued a parade of weaker Irish economy performance indicators for Q4 2011. Here are the headlines and updates.

November LR-implied unemployment rate edged up by another 10bps to 14.5% getting closer to 12mo high of 14.6% back in December 2010.

In absolute seasonally-adjusted terms, there are now 448,600 people on LR, up 1,700 month on month from October 2011. Year on year, LR rose 3,700 or +0.83%, back in October, year on year LR stood at 300 down on October 2010 (-0.07%). 3mo MA through November 2011 is 0.13% below 3mo MA through November 2010. In 3 months through November 2011, LR posted zero cumulative change, which contrasts with a decline of 2,200 over 3 months through November 2010 and 4,500 increase in LR for 3 months through August 2011. In 6 months through November 2011 LR rose 4,500, while in January-November LR rose 2,500.

Overall, seasonally adjusted LR number currently stands at the second highest level in history (same level was also attained in August this year and the highest level of 449,400 was attained in September 2010.

Numbers of casual and part-time workers rose once again from 85,029 in October to 86,612 in November or 1,583 mom (+1.86%). Year on year the number of part-time workers rose 6,404 (+7.98%). 3mo MA through November 2011 is up 8.79% year on year.

percentage of non-Irish nationals on LR rose from 17.43% in october to 17.58% in November as decline of 1,347 Irish nationals on LR mom was offset by an increase of 482 non-Irish nationals over the same period. Year on year, numbers of non-nationals on LR is up 737 or 0.99% while number of Irish nationals is up 3,828 or +1.09%. However, last 3mo saw an increase of 0.051% in non-Irish nationals on LR and an increase of 0.033% for Irish nationals.

Per CSO: "The number of long term claimants on the Live Register in November 2011 was 179,890. The number of male long term claimants increased by 19,939 (+18.1%) in the year to November 2011, while the comparable increase for females was 9,624 (+24.1%) giving an overall annual increase of 29,563 (+19.7%) in the number of long term claimants. This rate of increase in long term claimants has been slowing through the year with an annual increase of 57,597 (55.9%) having been recorded in January 2011." I am quite puzzled by CSO's apparent selective interpretation of this data, which appears to present the "positive" side of statistics. The slowdown in the rate of increases in long term claimants appears to be in line with overall slowdown in the rate of increase in the series for unemployment. January 2011 transition rates referenced Q3 2009-Q4 2009 net signees - of which there were, you guessed it, 25,400. But November 2011 transition rates are referencing net signees for Q2 2010-Q3 2010 - of which there were 10,200. So some better analysis would have done here for CSO.

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