Tuesday, November 15, 2011

15/11/2011: Q3 2011 Growth in Euro area

Latest data on euro area economies:

  • France posted a quarter-on-quarter +0.4% in GDP in Q3 2011 after -0.1% contraction in Q2. Household spending +0.3% in Q3 from -0.8% decline in Q2. Domestic demand +0.3% from -0.3% fall in Q2. Production in goods and services +0.4% in Q3 compared to -0.1% drop in Q1.
  • Germany GDP +2.6% y/y in Q3, 0.5% qoq and Q2 is revised up to +0.3% from +0.1% in preliminary release.
  • Spain posted 0.0% growth qoq and 0.8% yoy growth in Q3 2011 against 0.2% qoq and 0.8% yoy growth in Q2 2011.
  • Italy is yet to report data
  • Overall, Euro area 17 posted 0.2% growth qoq in Q3 2011, same as in Q2 2011, with yearly growth of 1.4% in Q3 2011 down from 1.6% in Q2 2011. The slowdown is now evident in the yearly growth terms with Q4 2010 coming at 1.9%, rising to 2.4% in Q1 2011 and falling to 1.6% in Q2 2011 followed by the latest preliminary growth estimate of 1.4% for Q3 2011
  • EU 27 also posted a slowdown in Q3 2011: Q4 2010 annualized growth was 2.1%, rising to 2.4% in Q1 2011, and falling back to 1.7% in Q2 2011 and 1.4% in Q3 2011. Quarterly growth rates in EU27 were 0.2% in Q3 2011 against 0.2% in Q2 2011, down from 0.7% in Q1 2011.

The above compares against:
  • Q3 2011 growth of 0.6% qoq against Q2 2011 growth of 0.3% in the US. Yoy growth in the US was 1.6% unchanged from Q2 2011.
  • Q3 2011 growth of +1.5% qoq against contraction of -0.3% in Q2 2011 in Japan. Yoy growth in Japan in Q3 2011 was -0.2% against -1.0% growth in Q2 2011.

NY Fed manufacturing index reached back into positive territory, albeit barely, in November following five consecutive months of negative readings. Index rose to 0.6 in November from negative 8.5 in October. However, underlying conditions remained generally poor: new orders index fell to negative 2.1 in November from 0.2 in October and inventories fell to negative 12.2 in November from negative 9.0 in October. The employment index fell to negative 3.7 in November from 3.4 in October while the average workweek rose for the first time in six months. The prices paid index fell to its lowest level in nearly two years and this pressured margins.

U.S. retail sales were up 0.5% in October, driven by higher purchases online and higher spending on electronics and appliance. Sales of autos rose just 0.4% after a big surge in September while gasoline sales fell. Ex-auto sector, retail sales increased 0.6%. Retail sales for September were up 1.1%, were unchanged. Yoy through October retail sales are up 7.2%.

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