12/9/2013: Lorenzo Bini-Smaghi Strikes... again

A very interesting article in Telegraph quoting from Lorenzo Bini-Smaghi's book on went inside Berlusconi's PMship at the 11th hour of his tenure. Bini-Smaghi is one of the key ECB and Euro system insiders and is hardly a naive or malinformed observer.

Link: http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100025507/italy-floated-plans-to-leave-euro-in-2011-says-ecb-insider/

If true, there are massive implications (items 1 and 2) on political/governance side and a point of deflated rhetoric (item 3):

1. According to information give by Bini-Smaghi, Berlusconi was effectively removed from democratically-held office due to his willingness to discuss Italy's exit from the euro. This puts a solid boot into the idea of democratic EU and limited sovereignty. If a democratically elected head of state raising concern about the suitability of his/her country membership in the common currency leads to the removal of the head of state, the notion of sovereignty is not limited (as in restricted by the letters of the treaties signed), but truncated (implying absolute exclusion of some considerations from the set of feasible policies).
2. The only thing that held the Euro together in the end was not the ECB with its OMT, but convincing Merkel of the MAD consequences of Greek exit from the union. This in turn implies that there are no institutional constraints on German (or Germano-French axis) power within the union. This problem will not be fixed by all the policies harmonisation and banking supervision reforms anyone can imagine.
3. Being not a specialist on Target 2, I cannot exactly / scientifically confirm or decline Mr. Evans-Pritchard's concerns about the risk transfer within the eurosystem. My understanding is that Target 2 'imbalances' on Bundesbank side are caused by deposits swelling, not assets. Here is how the system functions, in my view: peripheral bank borrows funds from the ECB against collateral. Collateral lands at ECB as an asset. Peripheral bank uses borrowed funds to repay liability to a, say, German bank. Peripheral bank writes down liability to offset the writedown of cash paid. Peripheral bank remains oweing to the ECB. German bank gets cash in exchange for writing down the asset (peripheral bank's liability) and deposits money with Bundesbank which enters as a positive entry on Target 2. Now, suppose the peripheral bank defaults on ECB loan. ECB still has a collateral claim. The net loss (loan amount less collateral value), shall one arise, is amortisable over the entire Eurosystem - all CBs, not just Bundesbank or ECB alone. And more, per Jorg Asmussen: "If a net loss remains even after taking into account all provisions and reserves, it could be recorded on the balance sheet as losses carried forward and be offset by any net income in the following years." (see: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2013/html/sp130611.en.html). Finally, I do not know where he is getting the information that Bundesbank is selling offset securities to any banks to balance out inflows of funds to German banks from the periphery.

Note: many thanks to Lorcan Roche-Kelly (@LorcanRK) for acting as a sounding board for my doubts on Target 2 and the link to Asmussen's speech above.

10/9/2013: PMI and the real economy: Goldman Sachs notices disconnect

So ZeroHedge picks on Goldman Sachs taking the Euro area PMIs apart along the same lines as my recent criticism of the headline index: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-09-09/goldman-pours-cold-water-exuberance-european-pmis.

Here is my take:

1. Irish Services PMI detached from reality: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2013/09/592013-cautionary-note-on-irish.html
2. Irish Construction Sector PMI tracking itself, rather than actual construction activity: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2013/09/292013-sunday-times-august-25.html
3. Both Manufacturing and Services PMI failing to explain/track economic growth: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2013/07/772013-irish-manufacturing-services-pmi.html
4. The point at which Markit stopped reporting actual sub-indices series or even current month values: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2013/07/772013-services-pmi-for-ireland-june.html

And so on... 

9/9/2013: E. European economies assessment by EU Commission

New paper on Eastern European economies from the EU Commission, titled "The EU’s neighbouring economies: managing policies in a challenging global environment" (Occasional Papers 160 | August 2013 : http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/occasional_paper/2013/pdf/ocp160_en.pdf) provides some in-depth stats and analysis of 16 core neighbouring economies, including in the context of the Arab Spring and Russia partnerships.

Here are some interesting stats relating to Russia.

An interesting perspective on the overall Eastern European and CIS economic realm from the point of view of Russia-EU links: "High dependence on both the EU and Russia, along with still weak institutions, is a major drawback for the Eastern neighbours, particularly since the Russian economy shows a relatively high correlation with the EU economy." This suggests that Eastern 'neighbourhood' is not offering a good hedging potential for real economic activities and financial markets - both propositions that are yet to be formally tested, as far as I am aware.

The main pathways for risk transmission between Russia and EU are: financial markets and real trade.

Two tables to highlight risk transmission pathways between EU and Eastern neighbourhood and Russia in terms of trade and tourism :

Forward conclusion: "The Eastern neighbours as a whole, but also the Maghreb
countries (which also benefit less from the buffering role of the GCC countries) seem more exposed to a prolongation or intensification of the euro area crisis, especially since under such scenario the Russian economy is likely to increase its co-movement with the EU cycle."

Another pathway for risk transmission is remittances flows. Chart below illustrates:

However, in recent years, remittances out of Russia have been performing well:

FDI inflows side: "The exposure of the Eastern neighbours to EU FDI also varies significantly across countries. In the region, Ukraine is clearly the country most exposed to changes in EU FDI. In fact, the largest FDI inflows in Ukraine in 2010 (in terms of equity capital invested, i.e. excluding reinvested earnings and intra-company loans) came from the EU (54%) and from Russia (16%). Exposure of other neighbours (e.g. Belarus) to EU FDI is more limited, notably because of the importance of other regional investors, including Russia."

Extent of output links up between Eastern neighbours and Russia is pretty severe for a number of countries:

"The fact that Russia’s growth is also strongly correlated with that of the EU (the coefficient is 0.9 for the period 2000-13" compounds the problem of risks transmission.

More recent data confirms the same:

Quite an interesting set of pathways when it comes to intra-EM risks transfers.

8/9/2013: Dublin's 'burgeoning' workforce attracts MNCs? Err... what?..

A quick post. Recent research note from one of the highly regarded property research outfits in Ireland cited the following sources of Ireland's success in attracting nine out of ten largest tech companies to Dublin: "low corporation tax rates and a burgeoning workforce which is young, educated and English speaking." This references not some abstract period of, say, 'since 1990' or even 'since 2000', but the last few years, as the argument is then carried over as a reason / a causal explanation for the reported boom in prime office rents in Dublin in H1 2013.

While I do not want to pick any fights over anything, least of all the 'young' bit (read my Sunday Times column from today on 'demographic dividend') or 'educated' part (see my view of our education system and skills/human capital on this blog) or 'English speaking' (slightly ironic, given tech employers are complaining about the lack of foreign languages skills availability in Dublin), I wonder what this 'burgeoning workforce' references.

Here is data from CSO on Dublin's workforce for Q2 (or H1) in every year on record: 

Can you spot 'burgeoning'? In Q2 2013, there were 555,100 persons aged over 15 in employment in Dublin region. This represents second lowest level of employment (after Q2 2012 when the number was only 7,700 lower at 547,400) since Q2 2004. In other words, our workforce 'burgeoned' into a 10-year slump in terms of employment.

Now, in terms of labour force numbers, in Q2 2013 there were 630,500 in labour force in Dublin. This marked an increase of only 6,200 on Q2 2012 and marked the second lowest level reading since Q2 2006. With all the positive demographics and the tech sector boom cited by the property researchers, the burgeoning we might have experienced in labour force levels terms was consistent with the hitting a 7-year slump. Slightly more 'burgeoning' than employment figures, but still not exactly exciting enough to stir any tech companies rushing into Dublin.

Note: I reference two numbers in relation to the 'workforce' term: labour force and employment. The latter measures those who currently work, the former includes the latter, plus the unemployed, excluding  those in education and training. I seriously doubt US tech giants are coming here for the pool of the unemployed. Which means that the 'workforce' that can be expected to be strongly positively correlated with incentives for the MNCs to locate here would be measured by employment figures, not by general labour force ones.

8/9/2013: WLASze Part 3: Weekend Links on Arts, Sciences and Zero Economics

This is the third post of WLASze: Weekend Links on Arts, Sciences and zero economics. Previous two posts are linked here.

Just a couple of sets of links this time around.


An interesting blogpost asking "How do we distinguish between “lucky” world [chess] champions like Khalifman and “convincing” world champions like Fischer? How can we be confident that the winner of a match is really the best player in the world?" Lucky for us, the post describes statistical techniques available to do just that:
http://www.chessbase.com/Home/TabId/211/PostId/4011019/are-the-chess-world-champions-just-lucky-040913.aspx
The problem is not a trivial one, especially in the environment such as chess. We come to think about luck as applying in the cases where random outcomes are possible within the game rules or set ups. Alas, randomness can be induced into a game setting by simply having two humans facing each other. In a way, Kasparov's matches against the IBM computers have potentially shown that just one human is sufficient to induce randomness into the game.


Dezeen has two articles on buildings skinned with plants: vertical gardens.

Here's one in Paris II: http://www.dezeen.com/2013/09/08/the-oasis-of-aboukir-green-wall-by-patrick-blanc/. It is a stunning example of a vertical garden and, frankly, makes me want to replicate the exercise with my own garden wall.

The really significant bit - aside from stunning aesthetic and complex, beautiful design - is that the building is a historical one, in Paris II. In other words, the city allowed this bold intervention into cityscape and architecture to proceed. They deserve recognition for doing so. The effect is superb.

They do have some experience with vertical gardens in public spaces, however. Here's another project Vertical garden of the Musee du Quai Branly in Paris, France, also created by Patrick Blanc

Maturing design for the workspace/house in Linkebeek, Belgium created by Samyn & Partners and the same Patrick Blanc:

Another article is about providing an offset lattice of plants to a historical building: http://www.dezeen.com/2013/09/07/gnration-by-carvalho-araujo/

What a superbly complex, multi-use, challenging regeneration project. "The project uses the concept of occupation as motif," explain the architects. "It explores the boundary between an abandoned existing structure and a new invader construction who takes over the space." Another superb effort!

You can see more stories about planted walls and buildings at the bottom of the first post (scroll to the bottom of the page here: http://www.dezeen.com/2013/09/08/the-oasis-of-aboukir-green-wall-by-patrick-blanc/). My favourites are:
http://www.dezeen.com/2013/03/13/sportplaza-mercator-by-venhoevencs/

http://www.dezeen.com/2012/11/08/house-in-travessa-do-patrocinio-with-green-walls/

http://www.dezeen.com/2012/06/18/green-cast-by-kengo-kuma-associates/

Enjoy!

8/9/2013: Priory Hall Is Enda Kenny's Problem to Solve

Gene Kerrigan in the Sunday Independent has a very passionate column on the relationship between the Government leadership and the case of the Priory Hall residents.

The column is here.

On foot of my tweets earlier today, few of you asked to get my response on the issue. Here is the summary in the form of my earlier tweets:

7/9/2013: WLASze Part 2: Weekend Links on Arts, Sciences and Zero Economics

This is the second part of this week's WLASze: Weekend Links on Arts, Sciences and zero economics. Part 1 is available here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2013/09/792013-wlasze-part-1-weekend-links-on.html

Some superb photographs from the unfortunately very short anthology of Russian photography of the 20th century:
http://rbth.ru/articles/2012/05/25/an_anthology_of_russian_photography_of_the_20th_century_15720.html

And another fantastic retrospective - on Soviet design:

http://rbth.ru/multimedia/pictures/2013/08/29/imagennation_soviet_things_29319.html


A very exciting article on collecting experimental evidence on dark energy:
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/09/130903151759.htm?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+sciencedaily%2Fmost_popular+%28ScienceDaily%3A+Most+Popular+News%29
"Moonless nights outside the Cerro Tololo astronomical observatory in Chile are so dark that when you look down, you can't see your feet." This stuff is deservedly poetic… And more on the same experimental work: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/09/120917104651.htm


British Journal of Photography reported last month that John Paul Getty Museum - one of the largest collections world wide - has opened free access to its digital archives, making "collections of digital images available for all uses without charge, marking a radical shift in its long-standing policy of charging for commercial use of its work." Read more: http://www.bjp-online.com/british-journal-of-photography/news/2289455/j-paul-getty-museum-opens-up-its-collections-of-images#ixzz2eF3d0xHi The project is amazing in scope: "more than 4600 high-resolution images representing 4,689 objects will be download-able" and it is amazing in the range of uses allowed on an open access basis: "for academic and commercial use without restrictions". See http://www.getty.edu/research/tools/photo/index.html.


It is interesting to note that unlike the sale of the Bank of Ireland art collection back in 2010 (http://www.theartnewspaper.com/articles/Art%20market%20news%20in%20brief%20%E2%80%94%20August%202010/21328) Anglo sale did not make much of a news in the world of arts. Fair play - financial media and general irish interest media did cover the sale. Even the cross-publication, like The Guardian did not cover any of the details of the sale. The sale raised EUR281K - a pittance by any measure, but in excess of the pre-auction estimates (alas, these were provided by a domestic auctioneer, and are not confirmed by any major auction house outside Ireland). But what the sale and its coverage really highlights is the cardinal change in the art market since pre-bailout. Rumour has it, Anglo spent around EUR2 million on its 'art'… and back in 2012 its collection was appraised at cheerfully idiotic 'less than EUR1 million' (http://www.broadsheet.ie/2012/02/06/anglo-irish-bank-working-largely-in-the-medium-of-crap/). Some 18 months later… that shrunk to EUR281,000. "…it's time we began to laugh and cry and laugh again," as Leonard Cohen put it.


Amazing images of spring storm set against the setting of the Milky Way skies:

via http://wordlesstech.com/2013/09/04/spring-storm-milky-way/


Lastly, one of the greatest economists (or may be just thinkers) of our times, Ronald Coase died this week at the age of 102. Here are some articles worth reading concerning his life and work:
http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/johncassidy/2013/09/ronald-coase-and-the-misuse-of-economics.html
http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economic-sciences/laureates/1991/coase-bio.html
http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economic-sciences/laureates/1991/coase-lecture.html
His seminal article: The Nature of the Firm is available here: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1468-0335.1937.tb00002.x/full
His second most influential paper was The Problem of Social Cost: http://grecof2.econ.univpm.it/esposti/wiki/lib/exe/fetch.php?media=didattica:coase_jle1960.pdf
Here's an excellent summary of his top 5 papers: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/09/03/ronald-coase-is-dead-here-are-five-of-his-papers-you-need-to-read/
This year's NPR interview with Coase: http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2012/05/09/152197483/nobel-laureate-ive-been-wrong-so-often-i-dont-find-it-extraordinary-at-all

My favourite quote: in reply as to what Coase thought of his failure to correctly anticipate the rapid rise of China's economic power, her said: "I've been wrong so often I don't find it extraordinary at all." That is one cool thinker in my book.

May his soul RIP!

7/9/2013: WLASze Part 1: Weekend Links on Arts, Sciences and Zero Economics

Welcome again to the WLASze: Weekend Links on Arts, Sciences and zero economics post for this weekend.


Art Under Attack: Histories of British Iconoclasm is a show to run at Tate Britain from 2 October 2013 - 5 January 2014. Here are some details: http://www.tate.org.uk/context-comment/blogs/what-happened-painting. This promising to be a fascinating tour through history of philosophy of art, the linkages between art, politics and social / political / religious values. One of the shows that I certainly would love to see.

The topic of 'Art under Attack' is very current, around the world. Here is an example from today's Russia: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/10269778/Police-seize-painting-of-Vladimir-Putin-in-a-negligee.html. Artist page: http://www.saatchionline.com/Altunin.

And I linked recently to the story of art censorship in Ukraine: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2013/08/482013-wlasze-part-2-weekend-links-on.html

When it comes to censored art, Russian has a long running tradition. Here's an archive of the Soviet period underground photography sold at Sotheby's: http://rbth.ru/multimedia/pictures/2013/07/23/soviet_underground_photos_went_under_hammer_at_sothebys_28321.html

And while on Soviet history page, recall the release of the arrested archives and manuscripts of Vasily Grossman, covered last week: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2013/09/192013-wlasze-part-2-weekend-links-on.html

A word might be mightier than a sword, but art (including, of course, art based on language) is mightier than a word… and to see this, just trace the history of prosecution of arts across the centuries.


October 3, Dublin will host a very promising show by photographer Luis Diaz "Colora Experimenta": https://www.facebook.com/events/213139445518974/permalink/213139748852277/
Preview of the book is here: http://www.blurb.com/books/4489196-colora-experimenta

An interesting article on the 'vanity' skyscrapers: http://www.dezeen.com/2013/09/05/space-wasting-vanity-skyscrapers-revealed/ And while on 'vanity' architecture: the Walkie-Talkie skyscraper in London - yes, the one that melted a Jaguar, fried eggs and gave unearthly glow to people in the street below is still in the news. Here is an interview with its creator: http://www.dezeen.com/2013/09/06/we-made-a-lot-of-mistakes-with-this-building-says-walkie-scorchie-architect-vinoly/


Dezen also has details of the London Design Festival 2013:
http://www.dezeen.com/london-design-festival-2013-submissions/ from 14th to 22nd of September.


On science side:

My recent post on 3 papers attempting to determine if there are selection biases in identifying those who opt for careers in public services as opposed to private sector. The debate is fascinating and under-developed at this stage. Link here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2013/09/692013-research-into-public-sector.html


In August, researchers from Lund University in Sweden have confirmed the existence of a previously unknown chemical element, which was originally discovered by Russian scientists. The new element has atomic number 115 (super-heavy element) and is yet to be named… Putinium maybe? Or Khodorkovskinum? Or will Gasprom steal the show and sponsor the element naming contest that will produce something along the lines of Pipelineum? http://www.lunduniversity.lu.se/o.o.i.s?news_item=6082&id=24890 Clearly, chemistry is far behind celebrity economics in naming stuff...


Clive Cookson, Science Editor of the FT recently wrote about the experiments that allowed biomedical scientists to grow human stem-cells into pea-sized mini-brains with a neural structure similar to the brain of a developing non weeks old embryo: http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/57d40cba-0f05-11e3-ae66-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2dI1NPJiz. This research while fascinating, opens new floodgates in terms of ethical and philosophical implications. Which, in and by itself, is nothing new to science.


And from growing brain-like structures, even if embryonic, we also moved to simulating the evolution of embryonic structure of the early universe. University of Chicago physicists "have reproduced a pattern resembling the cosmic microwave background radiation in a laboratory simulation of the big bang, using ultracold cesium atoms in a vacuum chamber"
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/08/130829092845.htm. Images (high resolution, so click to enlarge) from NASA files track evolution of the early universe simulation:
4-year microwave sky below:

9-year microwave sky above.


Stay tuned for more WLASze links later...

6/9/2013: Research into Public Sector Human Capital

Are public servants / civil servants intrinsically (ex ante) lazy or altruistic or both or neither? Not much of the debate about this academically so far, but here are three ground-breaking papers coming from German and global data (emphasis mine):

"Intrinsic Motivations of Public Sector Employees: Evidence for Germany " by Robert Dur and Robin Zoutenbierz (December 6, 2012: http://www.roa.unimaas.nl/seminars/pdf2013/Robert%20Dur.pdf)

Abstract: "We examine differences in altruism and laziness between public sector employees and private sector employees. Our theoretical model predicts that the likelihood of public sector employment increases with a worker's altruism, and increases or decreases with a worker's laziness depending on his altruism. Using data from the German SocioEconomic Panel Study, we find that public sector employees are significantly more altruistic and lazy than observationally equivalent private sector employees. A series of robustness checks show that these patterns are stronger among higher educated workers; that the sorting of altruistic people to the public sector takes place only within the caring industries; and that the difference in altruism is already present at the start of people's career, while the difference in laziness is only present for employees with sufficiently long work experience."


"Working for a Good Cause" by Robert Dur and Robin Zoutenbier (May 15, 2013, CESifo Working Paper Series No. 4227: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2265180)

Abstract: "A rich literature in public administration has shown that public sector employees have stronger altruistic motivations than private sector employees. Recent economic theories stress the importance of mission preferences, and predict that altruistic people sort into the public sector when they subscribe to its mission. This paper uses data from a representative survey among more than 30.000 employees from 50 countries to test this prediction. We find strong evidence for a mutually reinforcing role of altruism and mission alignment in sorting to the public sector, particularly among highly educated workers and among workers in less-developed countries."


"Public Sector Employees: Risk Averse and Altruistic?" by Buurman, Margaretha , Delfgaauw, Josse, Dur, Robert and Van den Bossche, Seth,  (June 28, 2012, CESifo Working Paper Series No. 3851: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2094954)

Abstract: "We assess whether public sector employees have a stronger inclination to serve others and are more risk averse than employees in the private sector. A unique feature of our study is that we use revealed rather than stated preferences data. Respondents of a large-scale survey were offered a substantial reward and could choose between a widely redeemable gift certificate, a lottery ticket, or making a donation to a charity. Our analysis shows that public sector employees are significantly less likely to choose the risky option (lottery) and, at the start of their career, significantly more likely to choose the pro-social option (charity). However, when tenure increases, this difference in pro-social inclinations disappears and, later on, even reverses. Further, our results suggest that quite a few public sector employees do not contribute to charity because they feel that they already contribute enough to society at work for too little pay."

Non-scientific polemic based on the above is here: http://opinion.financialpost.com/2013/07/23/william-watson-civil-servants-not-born-lazy-they-learn-it-at-work/

I presume there were no major errors in Excel spreadsheets anywhere around the above studies...

6/9/2013: Euromoney Country Risk Survey: Upgrading Irish Banking Sector Risks Outlook

Some good news for Ireland out of a number of surveys today. First, BlackRock Investment Institute survey of country experts shows Ireland improving economic outlook 6 months forward - details here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2013/09/692013-blackrock-institute-survey-north.html

Now, Euromoney Country Risk survey shows significant improvements in market experts assessment of Irish banking sector stability:

While both reflect opinions of experts, including experts within the specific sectors, the two are good indicators of the general direction toward gradual improvement in country economic outlook. Let's hope the Budget 2014 and mortgages arrears workouts do not derail this trend.

6/9/2013: BlackRock Institute survey: EMEA: August 2013

BlackRock Investment Institute released its latest Economic Cycle Survey for EMEA region.
 Note: my note on survey results for North America & Western Europe is available here.

Per summary: "... this month’s EMEA Economic Cycle Survey presented a generally bullish outlook for the region. 

The consensus of respondents describe Slovenia, the Ukraine, Croatia, Egypt and Russia currently to be in a recessionary state, with an even split of economists gauging Slovakia to be in expansion or contraction. Over the next 2 quarters, all these countries are expected to stay in a recessionary state except Russia, Slovakia and Croatia. 

At the 12 month horizon, the positive theme continues with the consensus expecting all EMEA countries to strengthen or remain the same, with the exception of the Ukraine and Turkey."

Note: these views reflect opinions of survey respondents, not that of the BlackRock Investment Institute. Also note: cover of countries is relatively uneven, with some countries being assessed by a relatively small number of experts.

Here are two summary charts:

6/9/2013: BlackRock Institute survey: North America & Western Europe: August 2013

BlackRock Investment Institute released its latest Economic Cycle Survey for North America and Western Europe region.

Per summary: "This month’s North America and Western Europe Economic Cycle Survey presented an improvement in the outlook for global growth over the next 12 months – the net proportion of respondents with a positive outlook increased to 70% from 60% last month. 

The consensus outlook for the Eurozone was particularly positive, where the 6 month forward outlook shifted from 57% to 75% expecting the currency-bloc to move to an expansionary phase. 

The picture within the bloc was not uniform however, with most respondents expecting Portugal, Greece, Belgium and the Netherlands to remain in a recessionary phase, while the consensus has shifted to expect expansion for France, Spain, Finland and Ireland over the next 2 quarters. An even mix of economists expect Italy to be expansionary or recessionary at the 6 month horizon (and similarly so for Norway, outside of the currency-block). 

With regards to the US, the proportion of respondents expecting recession over the next 6 months remain low, with the consensus view firmly that North America as a whole is in mid-cycle expansion and remaining so through H2 2013."

Note: these views reflect opinions of survey respondents, not that of the BlackRock Investment Institute. Also note: cover of countries is relatively uneven, with some countries being assessed by a relatively small number of experts.

Here are two summary charts: