Showing posts with label gold prices. Show all posts
Showing posts with label gold prices. Show all posts

Tuesday, December 1, 2015

1/12/15: US Mint Gold Coins Sales: November


Following October fall-off, sales of U.S. Mint gold coins rose strongly in November to 135,000 oz by weight (+86.2% y/y) and 237,500 units (+95.5% y/y). These figures include sales of both Eagles and Buffalo coins. Average weight of coin sold also rose strongly to 0.5684 oz compared to 0.4709 oz in October and close to 0.5967 oz/coin in November 2014.



As noted in my note covering October sals, October decline was a correction reflective of volatile demand and also significant uplift in sales in previous months. As chart above shows, sales by weight are now well above period average and above peak period average. In 11 months of 2014, US Mint sold 679,500 oz of gold coins; over the same period of 2015 sales totalled 1,020,000 oz. November 2015 also marked 20th consecutive month of gold sales/price correlations (12mo running) being negative, suggesting strong and entrenched demand from buyers pursuing long hold strategy and taking advantage of improving cost of holding gold. 

Friday, February 21, 2014

20/2/2014: Gold Demand 2013: US Mint Sales


I recently posted on the 2013 demand for gold:

To complete this analysis, let's take a look at another area of demand.

Sales of gold coins by the US Mint are usually seen as representing more stable, long-only and non-instrumented demand for gold. US Mint coins are first and foremost used by investors interested in a store of value and secondly as long term savings. These are principally non-speculative in nature and do not rely heavily on shorter term volatility in prices (as some o the statistics discussed below show).

The series covered here include American Eagles and American Buffalos. The data we have for both series goes back to the start of 2006.

We shall focus in this post on annual values.

In 2013,

  • US Mint sold 1,095,500 oz of gold in the form of coins, marking the third largest demand in the series history. The demand in terms of total weight was up 29.8% y/y, reversing previous 3 consecutive years of annual declines.
  • US Mint sold total of 1,697,500 gold coins in 2013, marking the third highest year of sales by coinage, and up 39.1% y/y.
  • Average weight of coin sold in 2013 was 0.645oz/coin, down on 0.692oz/coin in 2012. Overall, this was the third lowest annual average oz/coin sold performance.



Correlation between price and weight of gold sold was 0.349, and between price and coins sold 0.450, while correlation between price of gold and oz/coin average weight was 0.137.

Monthly series confirm that there is little sustained correlation between prices and gold sales via US Mint coins:




Looking at longer-range series:

  • Average sales of coins by total weight in 2005-2009 was 874,250 oz per annum, against 1,092,250 oz per annum for 2010-2013 period.
  • Average sales of coins by total number in 2005-2009 was 1,174,625 coins per annum, against 1,548,625 coins per annum for 2010-2013 period.
  • Average sales of coins by average weight per coin sold in 2005-2009 was 0.705 oz/coin, against 0.703 oz/coin for 2010-2013 period.

In conclusion: US Mint sales of gold coins suggest healthy demand for gold, strengthening in 2013 on foot of both - improved affordability and rebounding in the underlying demand toward the 2010-2013 average levels.

Friday, August 16, 2013

16/8/2013: US Mint gold sales: H1 2013

In the previous post I covered July 2013 monthly sales figures for US Mint Gold Coins. As promised, here is a more stable trends analysis using H1 aggregates from 1987 through June 2013.

In H1 2013, US Mint sold 629,000 oz of coinage gold, marking the 5th highest ranked H1 in sales terms since H1 1987. Year on year, H1 2013 sales were up 86.1% and relative to crisis period average, sales were up 22.0%, while relative to the pre-crisis period (2001-2007) H1 2013 coinage gold sales were up 261.5%. For comparison, historical H1 average sales are currently at 336,520 oz.

In H1 2013, US Mint sold 1,088,500 coins, marking the third busiest H1 sales period since 1987. For comparison, historical average sales for H1 are at 592,615 coins.

In terms of average gold volume per coin sold, H1 2013 came it at 0.578 oz/coin, which is relatively moderate, given the historical average of 0.577 oz/coin.

Chart below to illustrate the above:

Chart above shows that both coins sales and oz sales of coinage gold remained in H1 2013 on the upward trend established since 2007 and the overall 2009-2013 activity for H1 period remains at post-1999 highs. There is little indication of any serious long-term slowdown in demand for US Mint coins in the data and H1 2013 strengthened the trend away from such moderation. The correction sustained over 2011-2012 has now been more than reversed and H1 2013 numbers in terms of coins sold is sitting comfortably above previous post-1999 maximum attained in 2010.

At the same time, demand for coinage gold (oz sold), while partially correcting upward in H1 2013 remains below the local maxima set in 2009-2010.

The above is consistent with restricted buying-on-the-dip behaviour, with some upward momentum being sustained by considerations other than price movements. This is further supported by changes in correlations between sales and the spot price of gold (average of closing monthly prices in USD):

  • For price vs oz correlation, correlation between H1 1987 - H1 2012 stood at +0.22 and this rose to +0.29 for the period H1 1987 - H1 2013, implying (recall that price fell for H1 2013 to USD1,484.50/oz compared to H1 2012 at USD1,664.00) some limited buying-on-the-dip behaviour.
  • For coins sold vs price, correlation H1 1987 - H1 2012 stood at +0.04 and this rose to +0.11 for the period H1 1987 - H1 2013, also implying limited buying-on-the-dip behaviour.
It is worth noting that H1 2013 figures were driven largely by January )month 1 of Q1) and April (month 1 of Q2) sales. This dynamic did not replicate in July (month 1 of Q3), so we should tread cautiously in expecting robust continuation of the H1 sales in H2.

16/8/2013: US Mint gold sales: July 2013

It has been some time since I updated the data on sales of US Mint Gold Coins, so let's take a quick run through the data for July 2013.

  • US Mint gold coins sales in July 2013 stood at 50,500 oz, dow 11.4% m/m (though there is little point looking at monthly figures which can be volatile) and up 65.6% y/y. The sales were close to historical average at 57,239 oz and below the crisis period average (since January 2008) of 88,694 oz.
  • US mint sales of coins in July 2013 stood at 90,000 coins, down 20.4% m/m and up 97.8% y/y. This compares agains 100,286 coins sold on average per month over historical period and 124,731 coins sold on average per month over the crisis period.
  • Average volume of gold sold per coin in July 2013 stood at 0.561 oz/coin, which is 11.2% ahead of June 2013 and 16.3% behind July 2012. In historical comparatives, July sales were behind 0.59 oz/coin monthly average over the historical period and well behind 0.77 oz/coin average for the crisis period.
  • 24mo rolling correlation between volume sold (oz) and gold price (end of month spot price) stood at 0.009 in July 2013, up on -0.045 in June 2013 and ahead of -0.09 average rolling correlation for the historical period covered by data, but virtually identical to the 0.01 average rolling correlation for the crisis period. In basic terms, the zero correlation between gold coins sales and gold spot price remained intact in July 2013.
Charts to illustrate:




Overall, analysis above confirms a short-term trend toward increased demand for gold coins, driven by changes in prices. This trend is more directly evident in 6mo sales data (next post). In total coins sales, there is a nice reversion to the up-sloping trend (first chart above), while oz/coin sold remains below the longer-term up-sloping trend line, potentially reflective of speculative purchasing running at more subdued volumes (second chart). Per third chart, there is a clear negative correlation between demand for coinage gold and the price of gold, suggesting some 'buying-on-the-dips', although this correlation is weak (last chart above) and is getting weaker (in absolute terms). There is a long-term trend toward positive (or at least much less-negative) correlation between the price of gold and coins sales.


Tune in for the H1 2013 cumulative data analysis next.

Tuesday, April 2, 2013

2/4/2013: US Mint Gold Coins vs Gold Prices


In the previous post I covered some Q1 2013 trends in US Mint gold coins sales and mentioned correlations between spot price of gold and volume of coinage gold sold. Here's a bit more beef on the latter.



As charts above clearly show, there is not much of a statistically significant relationship between price of gold and volumes of coinage gold demanded, neither in levels terms, nor growth terms. Which, of course, strongly suggests that the demand for coinage gold is based on longer-term considerations than those underpinned by simple price reactions.

Looking at H1 data over the same time horizon confirms the main observation:


There is zero relationship in smoother data (H1 cumulated) between demand for coinage and price of gold, while there is a relatively weak positive correlation between demand for gold content per coin purchased and the price of gold.

Key point here is that there is absolutely no hard evidence that gold coins demand is bubble-prone or bubble-driven.

2/4/2013: US Mint gold sales: Q1 2013

Q1 2013 data for gold coins sales by US Mint is out and is worth a look. Here are some top trends:


Per chart above, number of US Mint coins sold in March 2013 declined to 103,000 compared to 155,000 in February. Controlling somewhat for seasonal changes, y/y number of coins sold rose 3.52% from 99,500 in sales in March 2012. Looking at Q1 totals, Q1 2013 sales added to 533,500 coins, up 39.3% on Q1 2012, 10.57% on Q1 2011 and 96.86% on Q1 2010. Healthy uplifts against generally flat-trend prices. And, crucially, coins sales do not appear to be tracking 'risk-on' and 'risk-off' signals from equity markets. As I always maintained, coins sales have much more to do with steady risk-averse savers than with speculative buyers.

Chart below details relationship between volumes of gold sold via US Mint coins and price of gold (monthly final). In terms of volumes sold, March 2013 clocked sales of 62,000 oz, down from 80,500 in February 2013, and down 0.8% on March 2012 (62,500 oz). In quarterly totals, Q1 2013 came in at 292,500 oz and this was up 38.95% on Q1 2012, down 2.34% on Q1 2011 and up 7.93% on Q1 2010. In other words, much steadier demand growth in volumes of sales was also broken in 2013.

Meanwhile, price of gold rose 1.21% m/m in March and slipped 3.29% y/y. (More on correlations below).


The following chart details trend in average gold content per coin sold (oz/coin): in March 2013, average gold content stood at 0.602 oz/coin, up on 0.519 oz/coin in February 2013 and not far off from the 0.628 oz/coin in March 2012. However, overall trend remains relatively flat at around 0.65 oz/coin since mid-2006. Longer term trend is gently upward, indicating that over time, investors and savers started to allocated slightly more of their investable savings into coinage gold.


 Chart below shows correlation between volumes of coinage gold sold and gold price:


Two things worth noting in the above:

  1. Since approximately Q2 2012 we are experiencing steady upward momentum in 12 months rolling correlations, and these are rising toward +0.5. This trend was confirmed in March 2013 and it is consistent with 24mo rolling correlations, but is still far off on 36mo or 50mo rolling basis.
  2. Linear long-term trend is also upward and is now in the positive correlation territory. This can potentially suggest that gradual financialisation of the gold markets in general is having a long term impact on gold's shorter-range hedging properties, since positive correlation is consistent with higher propensity of 'buy-on-dips' and 'book profit' behaviour. However, as 60mo chart shows below, we are still in solid hedging territory for now when it comes to longer investment horizons. Furthermore, correlations trends are negligible in size. So something to watch in the future and to blog on next... stay tuned.
Chart with 60mo rolling correlations



Monday, January 7, 2013

7/1/2013: Falling speculative investment interest in gold


In two recent posts I covered US Mint sales data (annual and monthly) for gold coins. The core theme of both was the return to fundamentals in demand as signaled by sales volumes. Such a return, of course, is the flip-side of the retrenchment by speculative investors. Here's a chart from BCA from November 2012 showing just that process working through:



Note: Disclosure in the first link above.

Saturday, January 5, 2013

5/1/2013: US Mint December 2012 sales


In the previous post (here), I looked at the annual data for US Mint gold coins sales. Here, let's take a quick look at the shorter-term, monthly trends and dynamics for December 2012.

Following a robust monthly rise in sales of coins by oz (weight) totals to 136,500 oz in November, December sales moderated to 76,000 oz (down 44.32% m/m), still posting a healthy 16.92% increase y/y. Compared to historical average of 56,346 oz the sales are still up, although December 2012 is below 87,717 oz average sales for the crisis period (since January 2008). However, while difference to historical (1987-2012) average is significant statistically, it is not significant relative to crisis period average. Furthermore, 6mo MA is at 68,250 which is well below the December sales levels.

For those thinking of a 'big fall-off in sales', December 2012 marked the highest volume (by weight) of sales since December 2009 and the fourth highest volume since January 2000.

In terms of number of coins sold, December 2012 came in at 82,000, or 52.74% down on November robust sales of 173,500, but monthly sales were up 26.15% y/y. Compared to historical averages, December 2012 sales are statistically indifferent from historical average sales of 98,758 coins per month, and from crisis-period average of 119,642. 6mo MA sales are at 93,500, ahead of December sales, while H1 2012 average sales were at 93,750, also well ahead of December 2012 volumes.

The relative moderation in the number of coins sold compared to the trends in the volume of coinage gold sold (oz) can be explained by the increased oz content of average coin sold. In terms of oz/coin sold, December 2012 sales stood at 0.927, well ahead of 0.787 in November, posting the highest gold content reading for any month since December 2011. Historical average content is at 0.590 oz/coin and crisis period at 0.790 oz/coin, both statistically significantly lower than December 2012 figure.

Charts and dynamics:


As above clearly shows, the historical trend is upward sloping and the current reading is comfortably at the trend levels both in terms of 6mo MA and actual level reading for December 2012.


The chart above shows contemporaneous negative correlation in price of gold v volume of gold coins sales between September 2009 and April 2012, with exception of December 2010 - August 2010. This correlation has now been broken down and turned positive since April 2012 - a new sub-trend that remained consistent since then and was reinforced in December 2012 figures. Chart below illustrates this much more clearly:


A little more statistical 'beef' on these: 12mo dynamic correlation between gold prices and total gold sales via coins (total oz weight of sales) rose to +0.34 in December from +0.28 in November 2012, so declined prices (y/y) have been associated with some increase in demand. Recall that in November-December 2011, gold prices fell from $1,746 to $1,531, while in the same period 2012 they moderated from $1,726 to $1,657.50. December marked 4th consecutive month of positive 12mo dynamic correlations. Historical 12mo dynamic correlation of +0.17. Looking at longer-range correlations, 24mo dynamic correlation in December 2012 stood at -0.23 against the historical average of -0.10 and up (in absolute terms) of -0.19 in November.

Per average coin sold gold content:


As mentioned above, December 2012 sales were characterised by a substantial increase in average gold weight of coins sold which is running well ahead of the historical (upward sloping) trend. More significantly, this year sales fell below the historic trend in 6 months out of 12. Hence, neither trend direction, nor current deviation from the trend are indicative of any severe downward demand pressures.

Overall, sales dynamics show that since February 2012, volumes of sales in oz have recovered nicely back to their historical trend (upward sloping) and are currently running above the January 2000-July 2008 averages.

Note:
Historical, long-term relationship between gold prices and demand:


While December 2012 observation is to the downside of the trend, it is clear from the picture overall that changes in gold prices during a given month have statistically no discernable relation to the demand for gold via US Mint coins sales. This simply confirms the nature of fundamentals driving demand for coins as discussed in my previous posts on the issue (see previous post linked above for one such link).

5/1/2012: US Mint Gold Coins Sales: 1986-2012 data


The readers of this blog would be familiar with the exclusive time series on US Mint sales of Gold coins that I have maintained for some years now. With December 2012 sales finalised, it is time to update the annual and monthly data analysis on these.

Here is the analysis for January 2012 - to open the year - that predicted 'return to fundamentals' theme for coin sales. And here is my article for Globe & Mail on what fundamentals relate to gold coins sales.

I am happy to note that my prediction of moderating trend in speculative buying and restoration of stronger link to long-term behavioural demand and savings fundamentals has been confirmed through 2012.

Looking at annual data for 2012 (note: subsequent post will provide more shorter-term dynamics analysis for December data), first in weight terms:

  • In 2012 the US Mint sold 747,500 oz of gold in form of coins, down 25.25% y/y, with demand for coinage gold declining below 2008 levels of 860,500, but well-ahead of the 2005-2009 average annual sales of 640,800 oz per annum.
  • In terms of longer-term averages, 1990-1994 average was at 384,050 oz, 1995-1999 average at 1,047,800 oz, 2000-2004 average run at 386,550 oz, 2005-2009 average at 640,800 oz per annum and 2010-2012 average is currently at 989,333 oz per annum. 
  • 2012 was the 10th highest demand year in history in terms of volume of gold coins sold in oz of gold, with series covering 1986-2012 period. In other words, 2012 was not a good year for Gold Bears and for Gold Speculators alike. This doesn't make it a great year for Gold Bulls, but, given that the average annual gold price in 2012 stood at $1,678/oz - ahead of any on the record and up  7.0% on 2011 - it does appear to have been another year when fundamentals seemed to triumph over shorter-term psychosis. 
  • My annual forecast for sales in 2012 was 694,050, which means that simple dynamic trend of moderating sales expectations based on previous years' price effects was bearish.
In terms of number of coins sold:
  • US Mint sold 1,123,500 coins in total in 2012, down 21.27% on 2011. The demand for actual coins was at the levels compatible with 2008 when the Mint sold 1,172,000 coins and well ahead of all annual sales in 2000-2007 period.
  • In terms of longer-term averages, 1990-1994 average was at 637,620 coins, 1995-1999 average at 2,246,300 coins, 2000-2004 average run at 738,700 coins, 2005-2009 average at 955,800 coins per annum and 2010-2012 average is currently at 1,397,167 coins per annum. In other terms, current sales are annually bang on at the annual average for the last 8 years.
  • 2012 ranks as the 10th most successful year for coins sales in terms of the number of coins sold, confirming my view in the third bullet point above regarding sales of coinage gold in oz.
  • My forecast for 2012 sales was at 1,21,223 coins - a much closer call than on oz of gold sold via coinage, suggesting that the demand remains closely driven by long-term dynamics.
In terms of both - sales in coins numbers (1,123,500 coins) and oz (747,500 oz), 2012 results stand in close comparative to the historical averages. Historical average (1986-2012) for coins sold is 1,261,170 and for oz of gold sold through US Mint coins is at 717,343 oz.

In terms of average gold content of coins sold:
  • 2012 average coin sold by the US Mint contained 0.665 oz of gold per coin, down slightly on 0.701 oz/coin in 2011 and well-ahead of the historical average of 0.574 oz/coin.
  • 2012 ranks as the fifth highest year on record in terms of average oz/coin sales.
Charts:




Historical dynamics:

As charts above illustrate, all time series have shown convergence to the long-term upward trend:

  • There is, so far, no overshooting of the trend to the downside - something that could have been expected if demand for gold coins was showing speculative bubble deflation dynamics or post-bubble correction, although, of course, we cannot say with 100% accuracy that this is not going to materialize with some lag.
  • There is no acceleration in the convergence trend in 2012 or since convergence began in 2009.
  • This episode of convergence is shallower (in terms of annual speed to target) than in 1997-2002 period and 1986-1991 period.


Historical correlations:

  • In terms of historical correlations, the following matrix holds, showing overall zero to low level negative correlations between prices and demand for coins and coinage gold:

The above, of course, implies that given moderating price increases in gold (+7% for annual monthly average in 2012 compared to 22.21% rise in 2011, 25.61% in 2010, 11.44% in 2009 and so on), we can expect a slowdown in overall oz and coins volume demand, which can lag price changes. This is exactly what appears to have taken place in 2012.

As before, I remain comfortable with the 2012 trend and am looking forward toward more stabilised demand dynamics in 2013, with volume of sales declining in 2013 to ca 500,000 marker in oz terms and 850,000 in coins numbers terms, assuming no major volatility in gold price and in line with continued stabilisation in the world economy.


Disclaimer:
1) I am a non-executive member of the Heinz GAM Investment Committee, with no allocations to any specific individual commodities
2) I am long gold in fixed amount over at least the last 5 years with my allocation being extremely moderate. I hold no assets linked to gold mining or processing companies or gold ETFs.
3) I receive no compensation for anything that appears on this blog. Everything your read here is my own personal opinion and not the opinion of any of my employers, current, past or future.

Thursday, December 13, 2012

13/12/2012: Some thoughts on gold



Tonight's Prime Time program covering gold is undoubtedly one of the rare occurrences that this asset class got some hearing in the Irish mainstream media. Which is the good news.

Not to dispute the issues as raised in the program, here are some of my own thoughts on the question of whether or not gold prices today represent a bubble.

A simple answer to this question, in my opinion, is that we do not know.

Short-term and even medium-term pricing of gold (in any currency) is driven by a number of factors (fundamentals), all of which are hard to capture, model and value.

For example, currency valuations forward suggest that gold is unlikely to experience a sharp and protracted correction in the US dollar terms, if you believe the Fed QE4 is likely to persist over time. In euro terms, potential for devaluation of the euro implies pressure to the upside to the gold price. Yen price is also likely to play longer-term continued devaluation scenario. Things are less certain when it comes to Pound Sterling price… and so on. Here's just one discussion on one of the above effects: http://soberlook.com/2012/12/precious-metals-hit-by-evans-rule.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Another example: drivers for prices on demand side that include rather volatile regulatory conditions in the major gold demand growth markets, such as China and India.

In short, things are much more brutally complex than the PrimeTime programme allowed for.

The reason for this complexity is that gold acts simultaneously (as an asset) in several structural ways:
1) as a simple bi-lateral long term hedge for inflation, equities and currency valuations
2) as a medium term (albeit not entirely persistent) hedge for some asset classes (e.g. equities)
3) as a short term speculative instrument to some investors
4) as a backing for numerous and large volume ETFs
5) as a benchmark backing for numerous and relatively large volume synthetic ETFs
6) as a store of value
7) as a risk management tool for complex structured portfolios
8) as a bilateral safe haven against equities and bonds, political and economic risks, systemic financial markets risks, etc.

These relationships can be unstable over time, can require long time horizon for materialization and are 'paid for' by assuming higher short term volatility in the price of gold. That's right - while PrimeTime contributors spoke about gold price 'correcting' or 'bubble bursting' none seemed to be aware of the fact that if you want to get something you want (hedging and safe have properties being desirable to investors), you should be prepared to pay for it (price volatility seems to be a good candidate for such cost of purchase).

No matter what happens in the short- to medium- term, gold is likely to remain the sole vehicle for the store of value and risk hedging over the long-term. It did so over the last 5,000 years or so and it will most likely continue doing so in years ahead. This property of gold is well established in the literature and is hardly controversial.

There is one caveat to it - due to instrumentation via ETFs, there are some early (and for now econometrically fragile) signs emerging that some of gold's hedging properties might be changing. More research on this is needed, however and only time will tell, so in line with PrimeTime, let's stay on the RTE side of Complexity Avoidance Bias on that one.

There is an excellent summary on what we know and what we don't know about gold by Brian M. Lucey available here:  http://ssrn.com/abstract=1908650 .

Last year I gave a presentation at the Science Gallery on some properties of gold, which is posted here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2011/08/20082011-yielding-to-fear-or-managing.html .

Not to make this post a lengthy one, let me summarize my own view of gold as an asset class:

  1. In my view, gold can be a long-term asset protection from the risk of expropriation, inflation, devaluations, and tail risks on political and economic newsflow side etc.
  2. To me, gold is not a speculative (capital gains) instrument for the short-term and it should not be acquired in a concentrated fashion - buying in one go large allocations. Gold should be bought over longer period to allow for price-averaging to reduce exposure to gold price volatility.
  3. Gold allocation should be relatively stable as a proportion of invested wealth - different rules apply, but 5-10% is a reasonable one in my view.
  4. Of course, any investment portfolio (with or without gold) should strive to deliver maximum diversification across asset classes, assets geographies etc.



Disclosure: I have no financial interest in or any commercial engagement with any organization engaged in selling gold. Until December 1, 2012 I used to be a non-executive member of the investment committee of GoldCore Ltd and was never engaged on their behalf in any marketing or provision of advice to any of their current or potential clients.

Thursday, July 19, 2012

19/7/2012: Q2 report from the World Gold Council

Q2 analysis of the trends and drivers for gold prices from the World Gold Council is worth a read (here) for a number of reasons. Here are two, from my point of view:

Point 1: Per Gold Council: "Gold prices declined in most currencies during the second quarter with the exception of the euro, Swiss franc and Indian rupee, in part due to a strong US dollar. Despite a 3.8% decline in Q2 to US$1,598.50/oz on the London PM fix, gold was up 4.4% during the first half of the year. Volatility remained elevated amidst a busy event-risk period. However, gold generally outperformed risk assets."

Chart and table alongside:

Table explaining events in the chart above:

Table summarizing Q/Q performance of gold prices in various currencies.


"Gold’s correlation to equities and other risk assets fell towards long-run average levels in Q2 helping portfolio diversification. Gold’s increased correlation to equities in Q1 was an indirect effect related to a weaker global economy coupled with a stronger US dollar."

Tow charts to compare on the above:

So things are reverting to historical levels - just what I drew as a conclusion from the gold coins markets data.



Point 2: More importantly, the theme is that of the 'depletion of traditional safe havens': 

"Over the past year, two national bond markets have provided shelter from turbulence in global risk assets: US Treasuries and German Bunds. Additionally, the US dollar, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc have benefited from de-risking flows... However, being an asset of last resort is not without consequences. In particular, the investors seeking more “safe” assets must also recognise that the ever-increasing supply of both currency and debt deplete the value of these assets. Furthermore, as declining yields approach zero, they create very skewed pay-off structures with much more downside risk."

In other words, these risk-free returns for safe havens start to look like return-free risks once price upside is virtually exhausted either by persistent policy interventions or by natural exhaustion of the asymptotic valuations (in the case of US Treasuries - zero yield bound on prices).

Good luck fitting zero yields into pricing equation for Treasuries, folks...

Monday, November 7, 2011

07/11/2011: US Mint sales for October

In recent weeks there was some long-expected noises coming out of the gold 'bears' quick to pounce on the allegedly 'collapsing' sales of gold coins by the US mint. I resisted the temptation to make premature conclusions until the full monthly sales data for October is in. At last, we now can make some analytical observations.

The thesis advanced by the 'bears' is that October sales declines (for US Mint sales of new coins) are:

  1. Profoundly deep
  2. Consistent with 'gold bubble is bursting at last' environment and
  3. Significantly out of line with previous trends, and
  4. Changes are reflective of buyers exiting the market on the back of high gold prices
Let's take a look at the data:

First - sales. 


In absolute terms, number of coins sold by the US Mint in October has fallen to 65,000 from 115,500 in September. Mom, thus, volume of sales, measured in the number of coins is down 43.7% and yoy change is -45.6%. Significant declines. Latest sales are running below the historical trend and 6mo MA has hit the long term historical trendline. 

This suggests reversion to historical mean, as predicted by my previous note on this matter and is, in my view, a welcome sign of some 'froth' reduction in the speculative component of the market. The trend remains on the upside, and 6mo MA is still running ahead of pre-crisis averages. Historical average is at 98,329 coins with a massive standard deviation of 112,309. Crisis period average is 128,967 and smaller (but still substantial) standard deviation of 110,323. Now, for 10 months of 2011 so far, the average is 130,400 coins sold, but the standard deviation (imprecise estimate, of course) of 41,934 or roughly 1/3 of the volatility over entire history.

Thus, if anything, monthly movements along the elevated average trend for crisis period are now looking less volatile than in pre-crisis period, which suggests that gold is acting as a hedge during the crisis against prolonged risks in other asset classes and that this property is so far being reinforced by reduced volatility as well.

Chart above shows that when it comes to gold coinage sales in volume (oz) of gold content, October sales (50,000 oz) are well below September sales (91,000 oz) and are 46.8% behind October 2010 sales. Worried 'bears' are onto something here? Well, not exactly. As with coinage, volatility of the series historically runs at 52,985 against historical average sales of 55,768 oz. Crisis-period volatility is at 44,726 against crisis-period average sales of 95,859 oz. 10mo through october 2011 volatility is at 26,514 (1/2 of historical volatility) and average sales are 89,350 oz - below crisis period average. Again, there seems to be more stability in sales in terms of oz volume than before, which, surely, should be a good thing for a hedge instrument. The 6mo MA trend is on decline here since March-May 2011 and, again, this is not a bad thing, as it signals continued reversion to 'normal' trading conditions - i.e. potential reduction in speculative buying.

Next little thingy, volume of gold per coin sold on average now stands at 0.769 oz/coin in October, virtually bang on with September 0.788 oz/coin. Which too is a good thing. Average historical volume of gold per coin sold is 0.587 oz/coin (stdev of 0.2) and crisis-period average is 0.816 oz/coin (stdev of 0.191). Latest 10 months period average is 0.703 oz/coin (note - we are still well ahead of that in October) and stdev for the period is 0.126 - well below historical volatility. 


So no drama - in fact, much less drama - in October data. Upward trends remain, reversion to trend is ongoing nicely, volatility falling. I never make predictions about bubbles timing, but as far as 'bursting' explosions and profound changes - I don't really see them. At least not yet.

What about the fourth 'argument' listed above? Are buyers fleeing gold coins markets because prices are too high? Well, I don't know what buyers think, but correlation between price of gold and volume of gold sold via coins by the US Mint is evolving as follows:

Thus, in October, 12mo dynamic correlation has fallen to -0.24 from -0.06 in September. This looks dramatic, until we consider historical trends. Average historical correlation is at -0.09 with stdev of 0.397. Crisis period correlation averages at -0.151 with a standard deviation of 0.377. For the period of January 2011-October 2011, average correlation is at -0.205 and stdev at 0.151.

The above implies that while current negative correlation is not dramatic, the trend in 2011 is so far distinctly for deeper negative correlations between gold price and coins sales and for more stability along this trend line.

Is this a good thing? Nope. The opposite is true in my opinion. More negative correlation implies stronger reduction in speculative buying, leaving gold coins demand more dependent on long term hedging objectives and as the tool for preservation of wealth. In other words, less speculation, more long term demand. This is not what we should see in a bubble 'bursting' stages.

Once again, caution is due - I am not arguing if there is a bubble in gold markets overall. This is just analysis of the coins sales. I am simply suggesting that we are seeing a well-predicted reversion to the mean along upward trend in demand. We are also seeing, in my opinion, gold coins doing exactly what gold in general is expected to do - providing long term hedge instrument against risks associated with other asset classes.


Disclosure: I serve as non-executive member of the Investment Committee of GoldCore and I am long gold with stable unchanged allocation over the last 3 years. All of the above views are solely my own. 

Sunday, September 11, 2011

11/09/2011: What gold coins sales tell us about the 'bubble'

Here is the extended version of the article published by Globe & Mail on the topic of US Mint sales of gold coins.

Of all asset classes in today's markets, gold is unique. And for a number of reasons(i).

Firstly it acts as a long-term hedge and a short-term flight to safety instrument against virtually all other asset classes.ii Secondly, it supports a wide range of instruments, including physical delivery (bullions, coins and jewellery), gold-linked legal tender, gold-based savings accounts, plain vanilla and synthetic ETFs, derivatives and producers-linked equities and funds. All of these are subject to diverse behavioural drivers of demand. Thirdly, gold is psychologically and analytically divisive, with media coverage oscillating between those who see gold as either a long-term risk management tool, or a speculative investment, a "barbaric relic" prone to "bubble"-formation.

In the latter context, it is interesting to look closer at the less-publicised instrument - gold coins, traditionally held by retail investors as portable units to store wealth. Due to this, plus demand from collectors, gold coins are less liquid and represent more of a pure 'store of value' than a speculative instrument. Lower liquidity of coins is not driven by shallow demand, but by reluctance of owners to sell them when prices change. Gold coins are economically-speaking "sticky" on the downside of prices - when price of gold falls, holders of coins are not usually rush-prone to sell as they perceive their coins holdings to be 'long-term accumulations', rather than speculative (or yield-sensitive) investments. They are also "sticky" on the upside of prices - while demand is impacted by price effects (with generally higher gold prices acting to discourage new accumulation of coins), holders of coins are not quick to sell to realize capital gains, again due to entirely different timing to the holdings motives. Think of a person setting aside few thousand dollars worth in gold coins to save for child's college fund.

In general markets, classical bubbles begin to arise when speculative motives (bets on continued and accelerating price appreciation) exceed fundamentals-driven motives for opening new long positions in the instrument. Bubbles blow up when these tendencies acquire wide-based support amongst retail investors.

In late stages of the bubble, we should, therefore, expect demand for gold coins to falter compared to the demand for financially instrumented gold (ETFs shares and options). In the mid-period of bubble evolution, however, as retail investors just begin to rush into the asset, we can expect demand for coins to rise in line with demand for jewellery and smaller bullion. But we do not expect a flood of gold coins into the secondary market (and hence a collapse in gold coins sales) until literally past the turn of the fundamentals-driven prices toward the stage of mid-cycle "bubble" collapse.

The US Mint data on sales of gold coins suggests that we are not in the last days of the "bubble". But there are warning signs to watch into the future.

August sales by the US Mint were up a whooping 170% year on year in terms of total number of coins sold, while the weight of coins sold is up 194%. On the surface, this gives some support to the theory of gold becoming short-term overbought by retail investors (see chart below), but it also contradicts longer-term view that gold coins sales should fall around bubble peak.

Source: US Mint and author own analysis

In part, monthly comparatives reflect huge degree of volatility in US Mint sales. Looking at the longer term horizon, since January 2008, US Mint sales volumes averaged 97,011 oz with average coin sold carrying 0.82 oz of gold, the standard deviation of these sales was 45,196 oz and 0.19 oz/coin, implying that August results comfortably fit within the statistical bounds of +/- 1/2 STDEV of the mean for the crisis period. Equally importantly, August results fit within +/-1 STDEV band of the historical mean since 1986 through today. In other words, current gold coinage sales do not even represent a 1-sigma event for the entire history of gold coins sales supplied by the US Mint and are within 0.5-sigma risk weighting for the crisis period since January 2008.

Neither is the current monthly increases in demand represent a significant uptick on previous months or years demand. At 112,000 oz of gold coins sold, August 2011 is only the 19th busiest month is sales since January 2008. It ranks as the 34th month in terms of the gold content per coin sold. Again, not dramatic by any possible metrics. Since January 1988 there were 87 months in which average gold content per coin exceeded August 2011 average and on 38 occasions, volumes of gold sold in the form of coins by the US Mint exceeded last month's volume.

Again, not dramatic by any possible metrics, especially once we recognize that in terms of risk-related fundamentals, August was an impressive month with US and EU debt crises boiling up and economic growth slowdown weighing on global equities markets.

Charts below illustrate these points.
Source: US Mint and author own analysis
Source: Author own calculations based on the US Mint data
Source: Author own calculations based on the US Mint data

The data also shows that physical demand for coins is largely independent of the spot price of gold. Historically, since 1986, average 12-months rolling correlation between the spot price of gold and the volumes of gold sold in US Mint coins is negative at -0.09. Since January 2008, the average correlation is -0.2. And over the last 3 years, the trend direction of gold spot price (up) and the volumes of gold sold in coinage (down) have actually diverged (see chart). The latter is, of course, concerning and will require closer tracking in months to come. The correlation between price of gold and volumes of gold sales through US Mint coins is now negative or zero for 13 consecutive months.

Source: Author own calculations based on the US Mint data

Source: Author own calculations based on the US Mint data

The chart above also highlights the fact that the current trend levels of US Mint sales are significantly elevated on previous periods, with exception of 1986-1987 and 1998-1999 demand spikes. Since the global economic crisis began, annual coinage sales rose 7-fold from just under 200,000 oz in 2007 to 1,435,000 oz in 2009, before falling back to 1,220,500 oz in 2010. Using data through August, I expect 2011 sales to remain at around 1,275,000 oz. This implies that the 2008-2011 average annual sales of US Mint coinage gold are likely run at slightly above 2 times the average annual rate of sales of coinage gold in the period 1988-2007.

Given the state of the US and other advanced economies around the world since January 2008, this is hardly a sign of dramatic over-buying of gold by masses of retail investors. Instead, we are witnessing two core divergent trends emerging from the coins markets:
  1. Since, roughly-speaking, 2009, the trend in coins sales is moving counter to the trend in spot price for gold, implying that retail investors are not rushing into gold, as one would expect were gold to be a bubble, and
  2. The levels of sales of US Mint coins remain elevated, on average, since the crisis began, implying that high demand for coins, relative to historic trends, is most likely being driven by fundamentals-underpinned demand for safety.

In short, there is no indication, in the data reviewed, of the bubble beginning to inflate (sharp rises in gold coins demand along the trend with prices) or close to deflating (sharp pull-back in demand for gold coins).

Of course, the evidence above does not imply any definitive conclusions as to whether gold is or is not a "bubble". Instead, it points to one particular aspect of demand for gold - the behaviorally anchored, longer-term demand for gold coins as wealth preservation tool for smaller retail investors. Given the state of the US and other advanced economies around the world since January 2008, US Mint data does not appear to support the view of a dramatic over-buying of gold by the fabled speculatively crazed retail investors that some media commentators are seeing nowdays.


Disclosure: I am long physical gold and hold no long or short positions in other gold instruments.


i These and other facts about gold are summarized in my recent presentation available at http://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2011/08/20082011-yielding-to-fear-or-managing.html.

ii As shown in the recent research paper by Profs Brian Lucey, Cetin Ciner, and myself, covering the period of 1985-2009: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1679243

Saturday, August 20, 2011

20/08/2011: Yielding to Fear or Managing Wealth

Here's a copy of my presentation from August 18th in the Science Gallery covering some of my views on gold (announcement here). All disclosures were made in the announcement and at the beginning of my presentation - do not accept this as either an advice to take any investment action - as usual. You can click on individual slides to enlarge.