Showing posts with label NAMA. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NAMA. Show all posts

Sunday, June 14, 2015

14/6/15: Why Read Wallace's Speech on Nama & IBRC?


Mick Wallace, TD speech from earlier this week is worth a read: http://mickwallace.net/index.php/dail-work/dail-diary/760-ibrc-behind-bureaucracy-and-secrecy-our-government-takes-best-care-of-big-business

Let me quote some choice bits relating to the way Ireland operates at the level of IBRC, Nama et al. Italics and bold typeset are added by me.

"We are discussing the alleged preferential treatment of the private sector, in particular deals that may have cost Irish taxpayers startling sums of money. …The number of people who have complained to me in the past couple of years about trying to buy assets from financial institutions controlled by the State, including NAMA and banks, but have not been able to do so despite being prepared to pay more than others, is frightening."

So Deputy Wallace is saying here that, allegedly, Nama has been turning down higher bidders and accepting lower bids. This can take place perfectly legally, in cases where bidders are connected to the original borrowers (Nama does not allow such bids, although this practice is rather bizarre to begin with and is in contrast to normal practice in the U.S., past practice in Sweden and Finland, and even IBRC practice). If Deputy Wallace's allegation stands for cases excluding bids by parties connected to the original borrowers, then we have a problem.

"…I was also shocked at how NAMA, ...operated. I understood NAMA was going to hold assets until their value recovered and would not offload stressed assets for less than what they were worth. Some of the apartments I built have been sold for €100,000 each during the banking crisis, Apartments which I could not build now for €200,000, even if I got the land and the money for nothing."

Now, Deputy Wallace is an ex-developer with quite an experience under his belt. So he knows what he is talking about. Deputy Wallace goes on to cite several examples, where combined loss to the taxpayers due to Nama premature sales of assets amounts to ca EUR165.1 million. From just a handful of examples.

What he is arguing is that Nama has been engaged in a destruction of value - selling assets at depressed valuations compared to what could have been achieved if it properly managed these assets.

The deals cited by Deputy Wallace are all on the record, in the media. I have been made aware of at least one case of an asset originally pushed by Nama into the market, subsequently being withheld from the market due to legal actions, staying off the market for a year or less. The asset was subsequently sold by Nama for a hefty upside on the original asking price. An upside comparable with what vulture funds reap in their own operations. In other words, delays by developers in this case produced actually higher returns to Nama. These delays were actively resisted by Nama. I have been made aware of at least one asset sold by Nama seemingly in disregard for its upgrading and/or development potential and possible uplifts to asset value arising due to completion of major adjoining public infrastructure project. In another project, I was told of a situation whereby Nama presided over termination of a value-additive joint venture with another organisation that could have nearly doubled the value of the original asset.

In economics, there is a term of 'opportunity cost' - the cost arising from pursuing one course of action as opposed to opting for a different course. In Deputy Wallace-cited examples of public knowledge, that cost is non-negligible EUR165.1 million. Or, roughly, 2/3rds of the the 'savings' achieved in one year from imposing higher costs onto users of insurance-funded health services. That too is an 'opportunity cost'.

Wednesday, June 10, 2015

10/6/2015: A Bombshell Goes Off on Anglo, IBRC & Nama


Here are the excerpts from the very important speech delivered today in the Dail by Deputy Peter Mathews. And I urge you – the public and professional readers of this blog – to read through the length of this.

My focus here is one core aspect of the IBRC scandal that remains largely ignored by the Government and the media and that Deputy Mathews raises. For those inclined, full official transcript is available here. In the quotes below, bold and italics are emphasising points of major importance and are added by me.


… I want to talk about how the so-called profits of IBRC were inflated for a period starting in 1993 and travelling forward to the present date. There were two ways this was done.”
Note, the word ‘inflated’ in relation to reported profits. If such inflation indeed take place, it would imply that Anglo reported profits were fraudulent. And this covers years from the early 1990s through 2003. That is a lot of years of potential major corporate fraud – fraud that (if proven such) would involve deliberate overcharging of clients, concealment of such overcharging and reporting this overcharging on the revenue and profits side of the company accounts.


The Act
“First was the direct manipulation of interest charges and the concealment of loaded interest, which happened in the majority of cases. An extensive exercise carried out by Bank Check revealed this. … Some 494 separate DIBOR-EURIBOR rates were reconciled and found to be loaded to a degree ranging from 0.5% in the early 1990s to between 0.03% and 0.05% in 2002 and 2003. Some 80% of all the loans examined, relating to many clients, were found to have this loading.” So the [alleged] fraud was systemic, not sporadic.


The Concealment
And it was actively concealed from the clients: “The statements which clients received never showed the breakdown of the base rate and the DIBOR 3-month rate plus a margin, which had been agreed by loan agreements, plus the reserve asset cost, RAC, if and when it applied.” Does this show an intent? For one has to ask if not intent, then how could this ‘error’ or ‘omission’ be perpetuated across 80% of examined cases?


The Size
The [alleged] fraud was also on a large enough scale to makes it material. “The quantum of the loaded overcharging was in the order of 0.3%. A margin of 1.5% would comprise two elements, namely, the amount that goes to cover overheads, which is usually about 0.9% of the 1.5%, and the remainder, 0.6%, which is the profit of the bank. A loaded secret dark pool profit of 0.3% would represent one third of the overall profits, including that dark pool profit.”

The letter from Mr. Morrissey’s solicitors that Deputy Mathews cites states the following: “Bankcheck has advised Mr. Morrissey that, in total, approximately EUR1 billion has been overcharged by you, the Special Liquidators, Nama, private equity and institutional buyers of former IBRC loans, IBRC and its predecessors. This is very material sum and represents a most material proportion of the bank’s declared profits over the past 25 years. You have been made aware of this on several occasions.” Note: “you” references in the above quote joint special liquidators of IBRC. And further note Nama mentioning in the above.

Boom! Remember the case against the Anglo directors that alleges wrongdoing relating to manipulations of the company accounts by means of loans and interbank deposits? Well, that is chips compared to the juicy chunk of meat contained in the above statements: thanks to over-billing of the customers, Anglo might have been over-inflating its margin by a third! Year, after year, after year. 

And, even more importantly, this information was known and is known to the current authorities and liquidators. Who did nothing with it.

Should former shareholders, current investors in ex-IBRC debt, former borrowers from Anglo, and possibly even auditors who were not given pertinent information by the Anglo and IBRC call in the legals now, the hit will be on the state.

Deputy Mathews went on: “That means the market valuation of Anglo Irish Bank in the 14 years up to 2002 when this was going on was overstated by one third. If it had been discovered by proper auditing the market would react with a collapse, …of at least one third of the value of the bank and this would affect the shareholders, creditors and depositors. That would happen irrespective of whether there was an international credit bust and a freeze of credit.


Systemic Failure that Continues Today
This has been brought to the attention of the NTMA, NAMA and others but it has been ignored to date. I have the evidence here and it is shocking.” Let us stress the fact that Irish authorities were and are aware of this.
  • An Irish court ruled on the matter in favour of Mr. Morrissey.
  • Mr Morrissey notified this to the bank.
  • Mr. Morrissey also notified this to Nama and the Department of Finance in early January 2015. It was notified to the Central Bank in late January 2015, and to the Minister for Finance in early March 2015, and subsequently again to the Central Bank in early March 2015. And the case is being ignored. Per Mr. Morrissey, he received no reply to his notifications from any official body.
  • Per Mr. Morrissey letter cited by deputy Mathews today, Mr. Morrissey notified the then Chairman of IBRC, Mr. Alan Dukes of overcharging as far back as in mid-January 2013. Simultaneously, he notified of the same matter the Department of Finance, the Central Bank and the Financial Regulator. 

Mr Morrissey has been ignored since then, according to the record set forth by his solicitors.

It gets worse. Recall that the liquidation of IBRC was undertaken under the procedure that all claims against IBRC were to be notified before the end of 1Q 2015. And again, the notifications in the case of Mr. Morrissey were filed on time. We are at the end of 2Q 2015 and he received no response on these notifications. So the deadline established by the IBRC liquidation procedures has now expired. And the IBRC and by extension the State have not replied to Mr. Morrissey before the expiration of that deadline, effectively undermining the very process of liquidation they themselves set out.
Is this a collusive behaviour? In economics, such actions would be viewed as potentially collusive: all parties responsible and empowered knew, none responded, the wrong remains unaddressed.


The Legal Bits
Mr Morrissey solicitors letter cited by Deputy Mathews has this to say on the matter: “It appears numerous illegalities have been carried out by Anglo Irish Bank and its successors over these 25 years [from 1990 through today]. You, Mr. Wallace, have acknowledged under oath in the US Court proceedings the overcharging of interest by the bank. As the overcharging has continued under your watch, you are jointly and severally liable for same, together with the Minister and Department of Finance, the Central Bank of Ireland and the Financial Regulator.

And per official behaviour in response to the evidence presented: “we most strongly object to this glib attempt to absolve yourselves from responsibility and liability both for historic and current interest overcharging, or the consequences thereof, including the sustained misstatement of the bank’s publicly released annual accounts since 1990.”


The IBRC Inquiry
Deputy Mathews spoke in the context of the upcoming IBRC inquiry. But what he said is more important than an inquiry itself. Here is why. The inquiry is supposed to provide and independent and objective view of alleged, potential, possible wrongdoing at the IBRC. Deputy Mathews statement shows that in an actual, tangible, established and courts-confirmed case of misdeeds by the Anglo and IBRC, the State is unwilling to do anything to address these misdeeds. Thus, one has to ask a simple question: what’s the point of an inquiry into alleged wrongdoings, when actual wrongdoings are not being dealt with.

Now, take a trip through theory. An inquiry can come back with two possible outcomes: One: nothing found. Two: something worng is identified. In outcome One, under the above revelations about the Anglo overcharging case, one can be pretty certain that no one will believe the inquiry findings. There is no trust in our systems, there is no trust in our processes. No matter how well the inquiry works, its findings, were they to deliver inconclusive verdict, will always be subject to mistrust. In outcome Two, nothing will happen. Just as nothing is happening in the overcharging case. The outcome will be ignored. And so the inquiry, given the context of the cases such as cited by Deputy Mathews is hardly an exercise in building trust. For all its possible merits in design and execution, it is more likely going to be an exercise in further chipping at the little trust still left in this system.


Other Players in the Penalty Box
Deputy Mathews quotes from the letter from the Black solicitors, “following the John Morrissey case:It appears numerous illegalities have been carried out by Anglo Irish Bank and its successors over these 25 years. You, Mr. [Kieran] Wallace, have acknowledged under oath in US Court proceedings the overcharging of interest by the bank. As the overcharging has continued under your watch, you are jointly and severally liable for same, together with the Minister and Department of Finance, the Central Bank of Ireland and the Financial Regulator.””

But remember, there are other players beyond Mr. Morrissey who might want to ask few questions from the Government now that the word is getting out. As Deputy Mathews notes: “This is serious stuff. There are loans that are being operationally processed by the originators of those loans. Now those loans are owned by third parties, including hedge funds, and they are calculating interest on an unlawful basis, even though it has been brought to their attention. This is shocking.

Yes, we have on the line now:
  1.  Borrowers who were [potentially] defrauded of billions in false charges;
  2.  Investors in Anglo shares who were potentially defrauded by over-valuations of the bank;
  3. Investors in distressed loans purchased off Anglo-IBRC who are holding hot paper with [potential] fraud written all over it – the loans of the borrowers potentially defrauded;
  4. Potentially, the auditors of Anglo/IBRC who were possibly misled by non-disclosure of overcharging;
  5. And on top of all of them are the underwriters of the IBRC liquidation: taxpayers, who are facing huge bills for this.


And Another Bombshell
Deputy Mathews did not end just there. 

Here is another bombshell that exploded loud and clear in the Dail today, even through the repeated interruptions: “There is other evidence that NAMA knowingly----- allowed the information memorandum ----- -----for the Chicago Spire ----- to be negligently misleading, which has resulted in unnecessary huge losses for both the Irish people and the developer. I have the evidence for that.” That’s right – you’ve read it here. There are now allegations that Nama – not subject to the inquiry – has ‘mislead’ the markets participants to the tune of [potentially] hundreds of millions on just one, repeat, just one, asset sale.


Conclusion

These are mind-blowing revelations that expose more than just a systemic fraud [potentially] being perpetrated by a rogue bank. These are the revelations that show the current system wanting in respect of acting on the established legal case judgement in addressing the systemic [potential] fraud. And the worst bit is that even that is a tip of an iceberg, for Deputy Mathews statement about potential misrepresentation of the Chicago Spire case by Nama opens up the EUR77 billion can of worms over the Grand Canal. In this context, the current planned inquiry into 2009-2013 IBRC dealings is nothing more than a fig leaf of fake decorum on a rotten corpse of the Irish Solution to an Irish Crisis.


Still feel like the IBRC inquiry over 2009-2013 deals is going to be enough? Or should we not start systemically reviewing all post-crisis dealings and pre-crisis wrong still unaddressed by all agencies involved?

Saturday, June 29, 2013

29/6/2013: Nama valuations update to May 2013

In the previous post I looked at the latest prices trends in Irish property markets. Now, as promised, an update on Nama valuations.

Note: these numbers are indicative, rather than exact estimates.



Saturday, June 15, 2013

15/6/2013: Weekend reading links: Part 2


The second part of my Weekend Reading links on Art and Science and No-Economics (see the first part here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2013/06/1462013-weekend-reading-links-part-1.html)

Let's start with this:

http://vida.fundaciontelefonica.com/project/may-the-horse-live-in-me/
It's not a horse meets artist or vice versa, but an artist 'becomes' a horse. Literally, physiologically. Amazing stuff, although MrsG thought it is taking performance art a bit too far.


Next up - amazing show of new work by one of my favourite artists of all times: Gerhard Richter
http://www.mariangoodman.com/exhibitions/2012-09-12_gerhard-richter/%20and%20related
Couple of images:




The migration of Richter's work toward more linear, form-focused, less figurative work over recent years has been in tune with what is happening around the world of abstract art today. I love it, but the 'old' Richter (second image above from 2005: http://www.mariangoodman.com/exhibitions/2009-11-07_gerhard-richter/) is much more dynamic and still more appealing to my aged self. From that vantage point, an even more brilliant show of works by the artist is here: http://www.ludorff.com/en/exhibition/gerhard_richter_abstrakte_bilder/works . Art Basel 2013 has more vintage Richters too.


http://www.mariangoodman.com/artists/ has some very interesting artists I knew far less about. Great example is Julie Mehretu: http://www.mariangoodman.com/exhibitions/2013-05-11_julie-mehretu/#/images/7/

Reminds me of one of my old favourites: a merger of abstraction by Cy Thombly (http://www.cytwombly.info/) and mathematical / architectural precision of Alberto Giacometti: http://www.fondation-giacometti.fr/en/art/16/discover-giacometti/ scroll down to Encounters, Portraits and Fifty Years of Prints sections for the likes of



Wyeth cross over too… for some reason… maybe geometry or Giacometti-esque reference to line?




Lastly for the arts: cool images from the Arctic spying outpost: http://www.wired.com/rawfile/2013/06/charles-stankievech-northernmost-settlement/



On science: a quick link to the Science Gallery - brilliant place, brilliant coffee, brilliant crowd: http://sciencegallery.com/


On a personal note: I came across this wonderful set of radio spots recorded for Mount Juliet. Followers of mine would know I was recently privileged to cast a fly (more like nymphs and wet flies) at the estate and can attest to the superb quality of water there. The spots are lovely and worth listening to: http://www.mountjuliet.ie/radio-adverts/

My favourite is The Ghillie one. I did not use ghillie's services on my day on the Nore, preferring the 'risk' of reading the river on my own, but I had wonderful help and conversation with the staff member who helped me with the waders and dry room and fishing room. Superb. And superb doesn't even begin to describe the late-very-late breakfast I got on my return from 5am-noon fishing.

Loved it. And here's one of my friends from the Nore who is still happily swimming in his pool…




Update: I rarely update the Weekend Reading Links posts after they are out, but here are more interesting links, this time on science.


A convoluted title of this paper: "Action video game playing is associated with improved visual sensitivity, but not alterations in visual sensory memory" should not be a deterrent from reading its very interesting findings. Basically, games players (for electronic games that is) tend to be able to see more in the faster-paced and more complex scenes than non-gamers. However, what they see they don't remember all too well after the fact. I am not even sure they comprehend what they see any deeper either, but that a different topic all together. http://link.springer.com/article/10.3758%2Fs13414-013-0472-7


Further evidence that Anglo Irish Bank was lending well beyond the constraints of our planet was found by Nasa: http://arstechnica.com/science/2013/06/nasa-finds-unprecedented-black-hole-cluster-near-andromedas-central-bulge/ In brief, the Andromeda's core is about as concentrated with black holes as Dublin docklands: http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/nama-behind-70pc-of-the-vacant-docklands-sites-29346104.html

Sunday, May 19, 2013

19/5/2013: Namawinelake closure

I do not know the reasons behind the Namawinelake decision to stop operations, but the announcement that the blog will cease publishing new material starting from tomorrow was a shocker for me.

I can attest from my own & others' experiences that those of us who run anything independent of the officialdom mouthpieces (regardless of political / ideological orientation or even the lack of one) have near-zero support (moral or citations- and links-wise) from our internal (not to be confused with international) media and all businesses.

Those in our society, including the traditional media, who only benefit from the free analysis and the climate of openness and debate the independent analysts help to create prefer to endlessly endorse and support, including via advertising revenues, cross-links, citations and readership, those who offer no alternative but consensus.

In contrast, independent analysts in Ireland operate in the environment of constant, usually indirect, 'soft', pressure from the part of the Irish society which is fully aligned with the official elite. This 'aligned' sub-section of Ireland often has direct and indirect support (including financial) from major business, political and ideological organisations in this country, and even from European organisations. Because of this, Irish new independent media remains relatively small, under-resourced and often marginalised.

The rarity of honest, no-spin analysis in this country is exemplified by the rarity of excellence regularly provided by a handful of independent blogs, like Namawinelake. To say that Namawinelake will be missed is a massive understatement for me, personally.

Any healthy society requires healthy dissent both in the traditional and new media, funded and resourced by the society that values debate, honesty, independence and discourse. Any healthy economy requires a healthy society. It is a benefit to businesses, their customers, their investors, as well as in the interest of the entire nation to nurture and support such dissent. I can only hope that Namawinelake closure had nothing to do with our collective and repeated, long running failures to recognise the immense personal, social and economic values of the independent new media.

Sunday, June 24, 2012

24/6/2012: Sunday Times June 17, 2012



This is an unedited version of my Sunday Times column from June 17, 2012.


The current Government policy, and indeed the entire euro area crisis ‘management’ is an example of ‘the lesser of two evils’ con game. The basic set up involves presenting the crisis faced by the euro area or the Irish economy as a psychological construct, e.g. ‘We have nothing to fear, but fear itself’. Then present two options for the crisis resolution, similar to the choice given to Neo by Morpheus in the Matrix. You can take the blue pill, the surreal world you currently inhabit will continue unabated (the ATMs will keep working, the banks will be repaired, the economy will turn the corner, etc) but a cost of complying with the demands of the system (the banks bondholders and other lenders must be repaid, the EU systemic solutions must be embraced, confidence in the overall system must continue). Take the red pill, you go to the Wonderland and see how deep the rabbit-hole (of collapsed banks, wiped-out savings, destroyed front-line services, vulture-funds circling their prey, etc) goes.

Unlike in the Matrix, it’s not a strong, cool, confident Morpheus who’s offering the option, but Agent Smith, aka the Government and its experts. And, unlike in the Matrix, we are not heroic Neo, but scared humans, longing for stability and certainty in life. This disproportionality of the power of the State as the offerer of the false choice, and the powerlessness of the society assures the outcome – we take the blue pill and go on feeding the Matrix of European integration, harmonization, and self-validation. The very fact that the blue pill choice leads to the ever-accelerating crisis and ultimate demise of the entire system is irrelevant to our judgement. We are in a con-game.

How I know? I was told this by the Government own statistics.

We all agree that our real economic performance is abysmal. Take unemployment – officially, it rose to 14.8% in Q1 2012, unofficially, broader measure of unemployment – that including those recognized as being under-employed – is hovering over 22%.

But to-date, our fiscal performance has been so stellar, we are ‘exceeding Troika targets’. Right?

Ireland’s Exchequer deficit for the period from January 2012 through May was €6.5 billion or €3.7 billion below the same period last year. This ‘improvement’ in our deficit is due to €1 billion transfer from the banks customers and taxpayers (via banks holdings of Government bonds) to the Central Bank of Ireland that was paid out by the Central Bank to the Exchequer. Further ‘improvement’ was gained by the ‘non-payment’ of the €3.1 billion due on the promissory note, swapping one government debt for another.

Underlying day-to-day Government spending (ex-banks and interest payments on debt), meanwhile, is up year on year. Tax receipts are rising, up €1.6 billion, but if we take out the USC charge which represents reclassified non-tax receipts in the past currently being labelled as tax revenues, the increase shrinks to €726 million. In the mean time, interest costs on Irish national debt rose €1.3 billion on same period of 2011, wiping out all gains in tax revenues the Government has delivered on.

Take that blue pill, now and have a 15% increase on the 2007 levels of budgeted Government spending (protecting ‘frontline services’, like HSE senior executives payouts in restructuring and advisers salaries), or a red pill and face Armageddon. Yet, the red pill in this case would lead us to the realization that the entire charade of our reforms and austerity measures is nothing more than a false solution that risks making the crisis only worse.


This week, Professor Karmen Reinhart of the Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University was dispensing red pills of reality at the Infiniti 2012 conference over in Trinity College, Dublin. Her keynote address focused on the area she knows better than anyone else in this world – debt overhangs and the pain of deleveraging in resolving debt crises. The audience included many central bankers and monetary and fiscal policy experts from around the world, including even ECB. No one from the Irish Department of Finance, the NTMA or any branch of the Irish Government, save the Central Bank, showed up. Blue pills crowd don’t do red pills dispensations.

Professor Reinhart spoke extensively about Europe and, briefly, about Ireland. In our conversation after the speech, having met senior Irish Government decision makers, she reiterated that, like the rest of the euro area, Ireland will have to face up to the massive debt overhang in its fiscal, corporate and household sectors and restructure its debts or face a default. In 26 episodes of severe debt crises in the history of the world since the early-1800s she studied, only three were corrected without some sort of debt restructuring, and in all three, “the conditions that allowed these countries to resolve debt overhang problems absent debt restructuring are no longer present in today’s world”.

Worse than that, Professor Reinhart explicitly recognized that “Ireland has taken debt overhang to an entirely new, historically unparalleled, level”. She also pointed out, consistent with this column’s previously expressed view, that in the Irish case, it is the household debt that “represents the gravest threat to both short-term stability and long-term sustainability of the entire economic system”.

Per claims frequently made by the Government that debt deleveraging is on-going and progressing according to the policymakers’ expectations, Professor Reinhart stated that “in the US, deleveraging process had only just begun. Despite the fact that house foreclosures and corporate defaults have been on-going since 2008, the amount of deleveraging currently completed is not sufficient to erase the build up of debt that took place over preceding decades. With that, the US is well ahead of Europe and Ireland in terms of what will have to be achieved in terms of debt reductions.” Furthermore, “structural differences in personal and corporate insolvency laws between the US and Europe imply the need for even deeper debt restructuring, including direct debt forgiveness and writedowns in Europe. And, once again, Ireland is in the league of its own, compared to the European counterparts on personal bankruptcy regime.”

But don’t take Professor Reinhart’s and my points of view on this. Take a look at the forthcoming sixth EU Commission staff report on Ireland, leaked this week by the German Bundestag. The Troika is about to start dispensing its own red pills of reality to the Irish Government.

According to leaked report, the IMF and its European counterparts are becoming seriously concerned with two key failings of our reforms. The first one is the delay in putting in place measures to address – on a systemic basis, not in a case-by-case fashion as the Government insists on doing – the problem of households’ debts. Incidentally, this column has warned about this failure repeatedly since mid-2011. The second one is the rising risk that accelerating mortgages defaults pose to banks balancesheets. Again, this column covered this risk in April this year when we discussed the overall banks performance for 2011.

From independent analysts, to world-class researchers like Professor Reinhart, to Troika, red pills of reality are now vastly outnumbering the blue pills of denial that our Government-aligned experts are keen at dispensing. The problem is – no one seems to be capable of waking up inside the Matrix of our doomed policymaking.

To put it to the policymakers face, let me quote Professor Reinhart one more time: “Europe’s solution to the crisis, focusing on austerity instead of restructuring household and sovereign debts will only make the crisis worse. The pain of deleveraging is only starting. …Europe’s hope that growth can help in addressing the debt crisis is misplaced, both in terms of historical experiences and in terms of European economic realities.” And for our home-grown Mr Smiths: “Ireland’s current account surpluses [or exports growth] are welcomed and will be helpful [in deleveraging] but are not sufficient to avoid restructuring economy’s debts.” So fasten your seatbelt, Dorothy, cause Kansas is going bye-bye…


Charts:


Sources listed in the charts


Box-out:

Few months ago I highlighted in this very space the risks poised to the Irish banks and Nama from the excessive over-reliance, in the pre-crisis period on covered bonds and securitization-based funding. The core issue, relating to these two sources of funding, is the on-going deterioration of the quality of the collateral pools that have to be maintained to sustain the bonds covenants. Things are now going from bad to worse, and not only in Ireland. Per latest Moody’s Investors Service report, across Europe, 79 percent of all loans packaged into commercial mortgage-backed securities rated by the agency that came due in Q1 2012 were not repaid on time. Three years ago, the non-repayment rate was only 35 percent. Per Moody’s, “real estate with mortgages that match or exceed the value of the property… suffered defaults in nearly all cases in the first quarter. About a third of borrowers with LTV ratios of up to 80 percent didn’t pay on time.” If this is the dynamic across Europe as a whole, what are the comparable numbers for Ireland, one wonders? And what do these trends imply for the Irish banks and Nama?


Sunday, May 27, 2012

27/05/2012: RPPI for April 2012: Implications for Nama

In the previous post I looked at the potential changes in the trends relating the RPPI and its components. Now - a quick update, as usual on implications of April Residential Property Price Index on Nama valuations.

Please keep in mind two things: 1) this relates only to residential property and is not fully reflective of the entire Nama portfolio, as both selection effects and portfolio composition effects would introduce significant differential for Nama actual losses, 2) LTEV and burden sharing assumptions apply in terms of averages, not specific to each type of property covered here. In other words, these numbers are simply comparative approximations and not exact forecasts of Nama losses.

  • Overall residential property price index has posted a decline of 49.89% on peak in April 2012. This corresponds to a decline of 36.7% on Nama LTEV valuations and 33.67% decline on Nama valuations inclusive of LTEV and net of burden sharing.
  • Recall that Nama first called 'the bottom' for property markets to occur at the end of Q1 2010. Alas, since then property prices have fallen - on aggregate - 27.09%.
  • Nama holds some houses. These are now down 48.41% on peak and 36.31% down on Nama cut-off valuation date, implying a decline of 33.27% on Nama valuations inclusive of LTEV and burden-sharing.
  • Nama holds loads of apartments, which are down 59.07% on peak and 41.13% down on Nama cut-off valuation date, implying that these are down 38.33% on Nama valuations inclusive of LTEV and burden-sharing.
Some pretty big figures out there.