20/6/16: Creating Fiscal Space. Or Money Growing on Trees

You might excuse an average punter for thinking things are going the beleaguered Irish Health Services ways with some EUR500 ml added to the spending bin (http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/eu-ruling-means-extra-540m-for-health-fbpnqcqb8?shareToken=699206929a359223e8662e8ae88a18d2). After all, even the good folks of The Times bought into the positive story.

But, such a conjecture is wrong. What really is happening, thus? In simple terms, the Eurostat reclassification of the Government conversion of AIB preference shares into ordinary shares generates several implications:

1. Preference shares represent a preferred (or senior) claim on AIB assets in the case of default or dilution compared to ordinary shares. That is the basics corporate finance and as such implies that State conversion of shares adds new risk to the State holdings, as well as reduces the value of that holding. It does create a marginal improvement in the AIB’s outlook for selling shares in the markets, however.
2. The conversion also raises official State deficit and spending volume for 2015, which has no direct material impact on 2015 spending, except via two channels: Channel 1 is the impact that added spending has on future (2016) spending; and Channel 2 is the GDP effect - as AIB transaction added some EUR500 million to State official spending, that EUR500 million is now an addition to 2015 GDP.
3. Because State spending for 2015 is now EUR500 million higher, and because our 2015 deficit was still below the approved (by the EU) target, the State is allowed - by the EU rules - to spend extra cash this year.
4. Although Ireland has funds ‘available’ for such increased spending, the funding will come from borrowing. The reason for this is simple: Ireland is still running a general deficit. Not a general surplus. If the State were to spend EUR500 million of ‘added fiscal space’ on activities for which it is borrowing funds under pre-existent budgetary commitments, the deficit would have dropped - in 2016 - by, roughly, that amount. However, if Ireland were to spend it on a new spending line or to increase spending above previously planned, the funding will come via borrowing from some other activity, such as repaying Government debt.

In simple terms, there is no free lunch. Irish State does not have extra EUR500 million floating around that it did not have before. No matter what you classify things as, basic accounting means: unless you got paid by someone EUR500 million, you have to borrow EUR 500 million in order to spend it.

Simples. But not for Irish media that keeps confusing deficit financing via debt for resources.

17/11/2013: Ireland to Remain Subject to EU/ECB Oversight post-Exit

On may occasions I have stated that Ireland will remain subject of the enhanced supervision by the EU and ECB of its fiscal policies following our exit from the 'Troika bailout'.

Minister Noonan this week confirmed as much: http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/troika-to-keep-eye-on-ireland-for-20-years-249851.html

Here's the relevant legislation governing our required compliance:

Regulation (EU) No 472/2013 of the European Parliament and of the Council
of 21 May 2013
http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=CELEX:32013R0472:EN:NOT
pdf link: http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2013:140:0001:0010:EN:PDF

Emphasis in bold is mine:

Article 14: Post-programme surveillance

1. A Member State shall be under post-programme surveillance as long as a minimum of 75 % of the financial assistance received from one or several other Member States, the EFSM, the ESM or the EFSF has not been repaid. The Council, on a proposal from the Commission, may extend the duration of the post-programme surveillance in the event of a persistent risk to the financial stability or fiscal sustainability of the Member State concerned. The proposal from the Commission shall be deemed to be adopted by the Council unless the Council decides, by a qualified majority, to reject it within 10 days of the Commission's adoption thereof.

2. On a request from the Commission, a Member State under post-programme surveillance shall comply with the requirements under Article 3(3) of this Regulation and shall provide the information referred to in Article 10(3) of Regulation (EU) No 473/2013.

3. The Commission shall conduct, in liaison with the ECB, regular review missions in the Member State under post-programme surveillance to assess its economic, fiscal and financial situation. Every six months, it shall communicate its assessment to the competent committee of the European Parliament, to the EFC and to the parliament of the Member State concerned and shall assess, in particular, whether corrective measures are needed...

4. The Council, acting on a proposal from the Commission, may recommend to a Member State under post-programme surveillance to adopt corrective measures. The proposal from the Commission shall be deemed to be adopted by the Council unless the Council decides, by a qualified majority, to reject it within 10 days of the Commission's adoption thereof.

Note: you can track my analysis of the 'exit' announcements following the links posted here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2013/11/15112013-beware-of-german-kfw-bearing.html

15/11/2013: Beware of German (KfW) Bearing Gifts?..

As reported in today's press, Ireland has secured a sort-of backstop to its exit from the bailout via an agreement with Germany's state- and local authorities-owned KFW Development Bank (see: http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/kfw-is-a-public-bank-providing-development-loans-at-lower-interest-than-commercial-rates-1.1595460 and http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/bailout-a-calculated-political-gamble-that-just-might-not-pay-off-249727.html). This was blessed by Germany (http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/merkel-backs-ireland-bailout-exit-without-overdraft-29754656.html). And it may or may not qualify as a backstop for the Exchequer (see speculative analysis here: http://www.irishexaminer.com/archives/2013/1115/ireland/bailout-exit-declaration-exaggerated-half-truth-249716.html).

One can only speculate as to the possible conditionalities imposed by Angela Merkel and her potential coalition partners on Ireland under the exit deal, but here's an interesting parallel development that has been unfolding in recent weeks.

Per reports (see for example this: http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/11/14/uk-eu-banks-idUKBRE9AD0X820131114 and this: http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/11/15/uk-eurozone-banks-backstops-idUKBRE9AE08G20131115 and this: http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/11/14/uk-ww-eu-banks-idUKBRE9AD15520131114 and this: http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/spd-rules-out-deal-on-banks-legacy-debt-1.1595352 and this: http://www.euractiv.com/euro-finance/germany-opposes-rescuing-ailing-news-531713):

1. Germany is clearly stating and re-stating its position on use of EU funds to recapitalise the banks (forward from the stress tests to be conducted). The position is 'No Way!' Wolfgang Schauble is on the record here saying "The German legal position rules out [direct bank recapitalisation from the ESM, the eurozone bailout fund,] now…That's well known. I don't know if everyone has registered that." So it is 'No! No Way! I said so many times!' stuff.
2. Euro area Fin Mins are moving toward using national (as opposed to European) funds to plug any banks deficits to be uncovered in the stress tests.
3. SPD Budget Spokesperson clearly states that his party is firmly, comprehensively against use of euro area bailout funds to retrospectively recap banks (the seismic deal of June 2012 is, in their view, not even a tiny wavelet in the tea cup).

Now, Ireland is the only country seeking retrospective recap and it is bound to have come up in the Government talks with Germans and the Troika in relation to bailout exit.

Put one and one together and you get a sinking feeling that may be retrospective recaps were the victim of the Government 'unconditional' solo flight from the Troika with KfW sweetener to comfort the pain of EUR64 billion in possible retroactive aid in play?..

Note: I am speculating here. It might be just that the Germans (KfW) decided to simply recycle their trade surpluses into another property err... investment bubble inflation in the peripheral states cause they just were so delighted with the way we paid off their bondholders. Or it might be because they are keen on burning some spare cash. Or both. Or none. If the latter, the reasons might be that it bought them cheaply something they want... How about that retroactive banks debt deal? It's pretty damn clear they want that off the table, right?

You can read my analysis of the exit here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2013/11/15112013-exiting-bailout-alone-goods.html and see Ireland's credit risk score card here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2013/11/15112013-ireland-some-credit-risk.html and fiscal risk assessment here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2013/11/15112013-primary-balances-government.html.

15/11/2013: Primary Balances: Government Deficit Risks

While looking at Ireland's risk dynamics relating to our exit from the Bailout (covered here:  http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2013/11/15112013-ireland-some-credit-risk.html) it is useful to think about the Government deficits ex-interest payments on debt. Here are the latest projections from the IMF:

For now, Ireland is running behind Portugal. By end of 2014, we are expected to overtake Portugal, but thereafter we are expected to remain behind Italy and Greece.

Not exactly a risk-free sailing there for the so-called 'best student in class'... Still, we are heading to posting our first crisis-period primary surplus.

26/9/2013: Framing Budget 2014: Village Magazine September 2013

This is an unedited version of my column in the Village Magazine, August-September 2013


With early Budget looming on the horizon, the circus of the 'austerity is overdone' politics has rolled into town. The Labour and the FG backbenchers are out in force trying desperately to salvage the little popular support they still might command in the streets. Not to be outdone, Fiana Fail, freshly converted into the Church of Socialistas has been unleashing torrents of newly-discovered social consciousness. Things are getting so hot on the anti-austerian' speaking circuit that Siptu was able to get even Jack O'Connor a gig. Their star performer was last seen thundering at the MacGill Summer School a potent brew of outlandishly misinformed comparatives between the European and the American policies for dealing with the Great Recession and calls on the imaginary Government to… no prizes for guessing… end 'human rights-violating' austerity.

Problem is, once you come back from all of the highs of this Keynesian Lollapalooza, Irish Government continues to run an insolvent state with spending not matched to revenues and with the expenditure programmes outcomes not matched to the needs of the society at large. Delivering neither fiscal sustainability, nor growth, nor value for money, our fiscal house is grossly out of shape five years into various reforms. Worse, the fiscal mess we are in has nothing to do with the lack of economic growth and everything to do with the policy institutions that the current Government inherited from the decades of political clientelism presided over by its predecessors.


Let us look at some numbers.

In the first six months of 2013, Irish State has managed to spend EUR27.12 billion on current expenditure, just EUR352 million shy of the level of spending in the same period of 2012 and EUR3.2 billion more than we spent in the six months through June 2011. Meanwhile, tax revenues rose from EUR15.3 billion in January-June 2011 to EUR17.6 billion this year. Crunchy austerity based on savage cuts, five years in still looks more like a tax squeeze and spending re-allocation from one programme to another.

Meanwhile, Department of Health spending is now running at EUR6,539 million for H1 2013, down on EUR6,754 million in H1 2011 - a whooping reduction of EUR215 million. Do keep in mind that 2011-2012 increases in the cost of beds charged to the private insurers (aka to ordinary insurance purchasers) have more than offset the above reductions in spending. Net current (ex-capital) spending on health has shrunk by just EUR128 million over the last two years.

The Department of Health is a great example to consider when dealing with the failure of our reforms. It is a frontline service by definition - the one we all are willing to pay for. Yet, it is also a symbolic dividing line between the poor (allegedly having no access to the services) and the rich (allegedly all those who hold health insurance and as 'private' patients overpopulate public wards preventing the poor from getting necessary hospital beds). Healthcare was also an epicenter of rounds of reforms over decades, including the decades of rapid economic growth and prosperity. And it is one of the two largest departments by voted spending, with budget only slightly behind the EUR6.545 billion spend in H1 2013 at the Department of Social Protection.

For this spending we - the middle classes and other payers - get little value for money in services. Over 35% of Irish households have to purchase private insurance to access any meaningful level of health services. In case you still rest in the camp of those who believes that such purchases of insurance are purely voluntary and constitute luxury, Irish Government is considering making health insurance purchasing purely obligatory.

Even with this expenditure, access to basic, quality of life-improving procedures and healthcare maintenance is shambolic. While run of the mill emergencies are getting reasonably decent attention, complex and time-sensitive treatments are wanting. Thus, Ireland ranks at or below the European averages in treatment of majority of chronic and long-term diseases, before we control for differences in population demographics. Our primary care and access to specialist consultants is pathetic outside the emergency rooms and hospitals' ICUs. Despite seeing the fastest rise in the healthcare expenditure per capita over 1997-2007 period in the entire EU27, per EU assessment, Irish healthcare expenditure increases have made only "a modest contribution to [improved mortality], substantially less than one third of the total, and possibly only a few percentage points".

In reality, of course, Irish healthcare is run for the benefit of Irish healthcare staff. In 2005-2007 pay and salary bill for HSE stood at an average 50.7% of the entire HSE non-capital budget. In 2009 it was 50.1%. In 2010, Irish salaries (excluding other income) for medical specialists were the highest in the EU, with the second highest paid cohort of physicians (in the Netherlands) coming at an average salary discount of roughly 25% relative to their Irish counterparts. These salaries were not inclusive of the Irish doctors earnings from private patients.

Per EU 2012 assessment, 33% of Irish people find access to hospitals unaffordable (8th highest in EU27) and the same find access to GP out of their financial reach (4th highest in EU27), while 53% claim that they cannot afford medical or surgical specialists (8th highest).

This is hardly surprising. Between December 2005 and mid-2012, Irish consumer price inflation (CPI) on cumulative basis has hit 9.5%. Health CPI over the same period totalled 21.4% - more than double the rate of overall inflation. Of EU15 states, Ireland and Holland were the only states where health costs were rising faster than general inflation in the last 7 years. 2005-2011 inflation run at 47.3% in Hospital services (state-controlled charges), followed by dental services 28.6%, Out-patient services 23.5% and Doctors' fees at 21.3%. This inflation took place from the already high cost base present in Ireland at the end of 2005.

By international comparisons, from 2005 through mid-2012 Ireland had the lowest rate of inflation in the EU15, while our health services inflation was the second highest after the Netherlands.

Austerity, it seems, has been a boom-time for healthcare costs. Or put differently, while the rest of the world defines efficiency-improving reforms as changes in delivery of services that reduces the cost of services given fixed or improving quality of delivery, in Ireland we define efficiency gains as providing fewer services at a higher cost.

Despite this, in Irish media and policy circles, assessment of healthcare systems performance starts and ends with the comparatives on public spending levels. Good example of such assessment was the 2010 report to the Oireachtast, titled "Benchmarking Ireland’s Health System". A foreigner reading this report can easily conclude that (a) Irish healthcare is run on a shoestring, (b) achieves great outcomes in terms of reduced rates of prevalence of and mortality from key diseases, and (c.) is delivered to the middle class and the rich, bypassing the poor.

In reality, of course, the inequality of access to Irish healthcare system means that the middle and upper-middle classes are required to buy expensive insurance to gain access to health services. Our achievements in combatting key diseases are primarily driven by our younger (and thus healthier) demographics.

And when it comes to access, only 17.2% of all non-maternity related hospitals admissions in 2011 (the latest for which we have data) were for private patients, with the balance going to public patients. On average, people on private insurance had 2.4-2.6 visits to GP in 2007-2010, while those on medical cards had 5.3-5.2. In 2012, the rich-favouring distribution of access to Irish healthcare so often decried by the media and politicians meant that 39% of population or just under 1.8 million people had access to medical cards, more than the number of private health insurance holders.

Health spending represents the case where we have at least some indications and metrics concerning the inefficiency of services provision. In contrast, in other major areas of state expenditure, there is no basis for efficiency assessments and none are being developed.

Irish welfare system is absurdly complicated, and unbalanced - providing potentially excessive services for able-bodied adults on long-term dependency and insufficient services for adults in temporary need of supports and to people with severe disabilities. Related services - in particular in the areas of skills development and training, placement supports for the unemployed - are glaringly out of touch with reality of the labour market demands. Over the last five years, Irish economy produced ever-increasing shortages of skills in several areas, most notably internationally-traded ICT services, financial services, and back- and front- office support services. Yet Irish system of unemployment supports, planned by Forfas and managed by Fas/Solace, failed to reflect these long-term trends. By the time state training behemoths turn around to face the music, the demands for skills will change again.


Irish state spending - with or without austerity - is a rich sprinkling of waste over a thin layer of substance. And it remains such in the face of five years of boisterous pro-reform rhetoric.
Irish austerity has failed, so much we can all agree on. But the real failure is not in cutting spending too much, but in failing to deliver any real gains in efficiency of public services provision or quality of these services. And it failed in containing the costs of the State, especially if we are to use long term sustainability as the benchmark for assessing the reforms.

The likes of Jack O'Connor and Fiana Fail ‘Nua’ might have discovered a magic trick for conjuring economic growth out of public spending, but reality is that the actual working population is by now sick and tired of being taxed to fund the perpetuation of the public sector mess, best exemplified by our healthcare.

18/7/2013: Ireland's Government Deficit & Debt Up in Q1 2013

Good news: CSO is doing its job well covering Irish Government Financial stats. Bad news: the stats aren't exactly encouraging:

I will be blogging on this later tonight, so stay tuned. But for now, the table above should do: year on year:

• Deficit is up (from EUR5.029bn to EUR5.387bn)
• General Government Debt (GGD) is up (from EUR174.15bn to EUR204.05bn)
• GGD is now in excess of 125% of GDP (few years back when I predicted it will be above that marker, there was a sound of hissing and sniggering coming from the 'outraged economists' corner of Irish academia)
• General Government Net 'Worth' is down to EUR81.13 bn. 

Small corrective bit: based on Q1 2013 GDP/GNP gap the above level of debt is at 149% of GNP.

Most of the deficit increase is accounted for by payments under the Eligible Liabilities Guarantee Scheme arising from liquidation of IBRC, and due to higher interest spending. In fact, interest spending rose by EUR543 million year-on-year, while deficit rose EUR358 million over the same period of time.

4/10/2012: Investor's Daily: We've been telling you porkies

In the previous post I tried to make some sense out of the headline numbers from the Exchequer returns through Q3 2012. This time around, let's take a look at the overall Exchequer balance.

Headline number being bandied around is that overall exchequer deficit stood at €11,134 mln in January-September 2012, down €9,526 mln on same period in 2011 (an impressive drop of 46.1%). Alas, that is a pure hog wash. Here's why.

In 2011, Irish state assumed banks recapitalizations and insurance shortfalls funding spending of €10,653 mln, this time around, the Government allocated only €1,775 mln to same.

Adjusting for banks recaps, therefore, Exchequer deficit stood at €10,007 mln in January-September 2011 and it was €9,359 mln in the same period this year, implying deficit reduction of €647.5 mln y/y - a drop of 6.47%.

But wait, in both 2011 and 2012 the state collected extraordinary receipts from banks recapitalization and guarantee schemes - the receipts which, as the EU Commission warned us earlier this year are likely to vanish over time. These amounted to €1.64bn in 2011 and €2.06bn in 2012 (January-September figures).

Subtracting these from the balance we have: exchequer deficit ex-banks recaps and receipts in 2011 was €11,650mln and in 2012 it was €11,417mln. In other words, the State like-for-like sustainable deficit reductions in the 9 months through September 2012 compared to the same period in 2011 were… err… massive €233.7 million (2%).

Let's do a comparative here: Budget 2012 took out of the economy €3.8 billion (with €2.2 billion in expenditure measures and €1.6 billion in taxation measures). On the net, the end result so far has been €233.7 million reduction of like-for-like deficit on 2011. How on earth can the Troika believe this to be a 'best-in-class' performance?

Or alternatively, there's €9.36 billion worth of deficit left out there to cut before we have a balanced budget. At the current rate of net savings, folks, that'd take 40 years if we were to rely on actually permanent revenues sources or 14 years if we keep faking the banking system revenues as not being a backdoor tax. Either way… that idea of 'under 3% of GDP' deficit by 2015 is… oh… how do they say it in Paris? Jonque?

And just so I don't have to produce a separate post on this, the Net Cumulated Voted Spending breakdown is also worth a line or two. You see, the heroic efforts of the Irish Government to support our economy have so far produced a reduction of €474 million on capital investment budget side y/y. But, alas, similarly heroic efforts at avoiding real cuts to the current spending side also bore their fruit, with current voted expenditure up year on year by €369 million in 9 months through September 2012.

So the bottom line is - savage austerity, tears dropping from the cheeks of our Socialist err… Labour TDs and Ministers… has yielded Total Net Voted Spending reduction cumulated over January-September 2011 of a whooping €105 million… And that is year on year. extrapolating this to the rest of the year implies that in 2012 we can expect roughly to cut our Net Voted Expenditure by a terrifyingly insignificant pittance amount of €140 million.

Yep… Jonque!

2/8/2012: Irish Exchequer Fog: Reality Isolated?

Let’s take a look at the Exchequer numbers for January-July period out today.

Tax revenue shows an increase from €18,633 mln in January-July 2011 to €20,313mln in same period 2012. 

This is primarily accounted for by increases in Income Tax (which are running pretty much in line almost exactly with what the USC reclassification would have yielded). The Department states that "Income tax is €159 million (2.0%) ahead cumulatively and is over 11% up on the same period last year on an adjusted basis. This is a strong performance." However, as far as I can understand the numbers, the adjustment only includes PRSI and does not cover reclassification of the entire USC (Health Levy). Which suggests that even 2% might be questionable. Per April note (link here) PRSI reclassification was 'estimated' by the department to run €300 million in 2012. It could be, in the end, 280mln or 330mln - take our guess, but it is significant.

Another 'major' factor is a rise in corporation tax of some €400 million of which more than half is accounted for by carry-over of tax from 2011 into 2012, not new tax receipts. Here's the Department note from April (linked above): "The Department is also taking this opportunity to adjust the corporation tax profile for the €251 million in receipts which were  expected in December 2011 but were  only received into the Exchequer account in January 2012". So setting aside timings of the corporation tax and netting out €251 million of carry-over, how much is corporate tax really up? The answer is - we do not know. But not by much enough to be excited about this.

There was a €200 mln odd rise in VAT - the real impact of the Budget 2012. Which means that on the net, there are very few real increases in revenues. Total taxes went up by €1,680mln odd, but on a real comparable basis, they went up less than €1,254mln over seven months! Again, this is before we clarify what exactly happened with the Health Levy. With Health Levy effects, the impact would have been probably closer to €250mln (I am using here 2009 figures for Health Levy and PRSI to estimate).

Non-tax income rose from €1,545mln to €2,355mln – of which almost €300mln is accounted for by increased revenues by the Central Bank and another €200mln odd is from the stronger receipts on the Banks Guarantee. There was €300mln interest on Contingent Capital Notes - also from banks. Sort-of the zombie giving back odd €800mln to the town it is killing. This is the 'reforms' the Government instituted to correct for the fiscal imbalances? Not quite: earlier this year the EU warned Ireland to not consider these 'revenues' as a part of long-term adjustment as they are bound to disappear in time.

Voted Current Expenditure – the stuff that this Government is supposedly cutting back – has actually increased – from €24.008bn in 2011 to €24.563bn in 2012.

Non-voted current expenditure is up more than €2 billion: from €3.556bn in 2011 to €5.573bn in 2012 – primarily driven by increases in the cost of servicing Ireland’s debt from €2.426bn in 2011 to €3.801bn in 2012. Timing effect on sinking fund contribution of €646mln also put a dent.

This means total current expenditure rose (not fell) from €27,564mln in 2011 to €30,136mln in 2012. This is very poor performance, folks.

Thus, current account deficit also increased in January-July 2012 from €7,386mln to €7,468mln.

Sinking fund transfer debit above was offset by credit to the capital receipts, which has meant that capital-related exchequer receipts rose to €1.454bn in 2012 compared to €789.9mln in 2011. Again, there is nothing miraculous here – the state simply transferred funds from one pocket to the other.

On the capital expenditure side, however, there are – on the surface – huge ‘savings’ year on year. Total capital spending amounted to €12,298mln in January-July 2011, but that was ‘cut’ to €3,112mln in same period 2012.

How were such miraculous savings achieved? Well, simple, really. In 2011 the state spent €10,655mln on “Non-Voted (Expenditure charged under particular legislation)” items and in 2012 this line of spending was only €1,775mln. 99% of these expenditures in both 2011 and 2012 relate to banks recapitalizations (and in 2012 added insurance fund support loan of €449.75mln). So the entire savings delivered by the Government amount to putting less money into Irish banks recapitalizations.

Here’s the summary of these ‘savings’.

TABLE

But wait, things are even worse! In 2011 Irish Government paid down the promissory note to the Anglo-Irish Bank in the amount of €3.085bn. This increased Government spending in that year. This year, the Government had converted the note into Government debt, and thus got to claim that there was no payment made, so instead of €3.085bn in spending, the State registered just the cost of conversion €25mln this time around.

All in, of the entire deficit reduction claimed by the media, full €8.9 billion of the ‘savings’ are simply what the Irish Government (rightly) claimed a year ago to be ‘temporary’ one-off measures. In other words, there is no reduction in deficit via expenditure side.

Let's do one final exercise: if we subtract one-off measures from the capital side, total - current and capital accounts exchequer deficit in the first seven months of 2011 was €8.24bn, in the same period of 2012 it is €7.35bn adding to it the reclassification measures and corporate tax carry over implies like-for-like deficit in 2012 of €7.78bn. Which means 'savings' of ca €426mln. 

Of these €306mln is accounted for by timing differences and cuts to voted capital spending which the Government is going to more than undo using the latest 'off-balancesheet' stimulus. And an unknown amount is due to Health Levy reclassification, let's say ca €250mln so far (an under-estimate for 2009 figures, but...) for which the Department does not appear to adjust the numbers. All in, Irish Exchequer finances have most likely deteriorated on comparable terms by around €80million in 7 months through July 2012 compared to 2011.

These are then the colossal savings that the headlines like "Ireland Cuts Deficit in Half" simply mis-represent.


Update: Someone highlighted that the Health Levy was incorporated into the PRSI receipts. My view of the Health Levy is based on this document.

27/7/2012: Ireland's Institutional Accounts Q1 2012

Some positive news on the economy front: Q1 2012 Non-Financial Quarterly Institutional Accounts are out today from CSO (link) and headline numbers showing no significant deterioration and even improvements in areas that do matter, except for the one that matters most to Government plans for the future.

The text below mostly quotes from CSO release linked above, with my comments in italics:

Point 1: The gross disposable income of households was €21,986m in Q1 2012 – an increase of €771m or 3.6% y/y.

This was driven by wages rising by +€170m and profits increases for the self employed of +€365m. Lower interest repayments on loans of -€272m further increased gross disposable income.

Point 2: Household expenditure fell marginally by €9m in Q1 2012 compared to Q1 2011 to €19,361m.

Point 3: Points 1 and 2 above mean that gross household savings increased from €2,439m in Q1 2011 to €3,209 in Q1 2012. The gross savings ratio, which expresses savings increased from 11.2% of gross disposable income in Q1 2011 to 14.2% in Q1 2012. Meanwhile, consumption of fixed capital by households fell from €1,056m in Q1 2011 to €1,037m in Q1 2012, and overall deficit in capital account for the households was shallower at -€154m in Q1 2012 as opposed to -€296m a year ago. This suggests that while deleveraging is still on-going, the rate of capital paydown has slowed slightly. In other words, households have slowed deleveraging and potentially increased capital acquisition. Albeit both effects are very small, these are welcome, if confirmed.

Point 4: An increase in current taxes of €673m between Q1 2011 and Q1 2012 was slightly offset by a fall of €312m in social contributions over the same period, resulting in an increase of €361m in the resources side of the government account.

Point 5: On the uses side of the account social benefits paid by government increased by €289m.

Point 6: Combining Points 4 and 5, the government savings deficit (resources less uses) showed an improvement of €125m – up from -€3,700m in Q1 2011 to -€3,575 in Q1 2012.

Point 7: When account is taken of investment and capital transfers, the net borrowing of the government sector amounted to €4,182m in Q1 2012 compared with €4,489m in Q1 2011.

Point 8: combining Points 4-7: in the nutshell, taxes went up faster than spending went up and voila we are ‘doing less worse’.

Point 9: A major bit: the rest of the world recorded a surplus of €994m with Ireland in Q1 2012 so that Ireland recorded a current account deficit with the rest of the world compared with a surplus of €1910m in Q1 2011. A swing of €2,904m in the wrong direction. Recall that per economics gurus of Green Jersey type, current account surpluses are the only hope for Ireland’s recovery. Oops…

17/7/2012: Fiscal Monitor Update - another chart

Here’s an interesting chart from the Fiscal Monitor update released by the IMF yesterday that is worth some attention on its own (see more analysis here).

Basically, this shows that in 2008-2010 period, Irish bonds valuations were not as much divorced from the immediate fiscal sustainability fundamentals as our politicos claimed. If anything, they were virtually in line with the fundamentals, pricing almost no longer-term structural underperformance of the economy.

This is not to say that we lack in the room for structural reforms, or that we were well on the way to delivering such reforms. Markets perception of Ireland even during the deeply crisis-ridden days of 2008-2010 seemed to have been much better than that of Portugal, Italy and Spain. Whether that was justifiable or not – is an entirely different question. But what is clear is that compared to other peripherals, our Government had no one else but itself to blame for our bonds spreads.

16/7/2012: IMF Fiscal Monitor Update - Ireland

IMF just published its Fiscal Monitor Update for July 2012 with some interesting data. I will focus here on forecast changes and updates to Advanced Economies, including Ireland.

 Chart above shows changes in the cyclically adjusted fiscal balances (structural deficits) which clearly highlight Ireland as a relative laggard in the fiscal adjustment process. Despite this, IMF concludes in the case of Ireland that:

Not exactly time to grab champagne yet... In its Table 1 IMF supplies Fiscal Indicators for the countries for 2008-2013 period, inclusive of revisions from April 2012 report to July 2012 report. And I plotted these in the charts below:

First chart covers Overall Fiscal Deficits for 2011, 2012 and 2013 per latest (July 2012 forecasts):

Clearly, Ireland had the worst fiscal deficit in 2011 of all EA17 states covered by the IMF update.  But we are also expected to post the worst deficit in 2012 and 2013.

Adding insult to injury, chart below shows that IMF downgraded our deficit cutting prospect for 2013 by 0.2 ppt, which is the worst case (on par with Spain) of a downgrade for an EA17 state covered. Note: we did get an upgrade from April to July forecasts for 2012 results.

Let's take a look at Cyclically-Adjusted Deficits measured as % of potential GDP (aka structural deficits):

Again, per chart above, Ireland had the worst EA (covered states) cyclically-adjusted deficit in 2011, followed by the expected worst deficits in 2012 and 2013. We posted the second worst downgrade for 2013 forecast (Spain was first). As before, we got an upgrade on cyclically-adjusted deficit forecast for 2012 - which is good news.

Now, what about that fabled Irish leadership in austerity? Chart below shows the depth of structural deficits reductions from 2009 through 2012 (forecast consistent with July update):

It turns out, per chart above, that our championship in austerity is really behind that of Greece (-14%),  Portugal (-6.7%) and Spain (-4.7%).

And the really worrisome update is reserved for Government debt levels. Back two years ago I predicted that Irish debt/GDP ratio will top over 120% marker. Back then, I was criticized for this because an army of our 'green jersey' economists and commentators decided that 120% is a magic number we will never reach. The reason for their ardent defense of this imaginary line in the sand is that they bought into the ECB and EU line that 120% is 'sustainability bound' for public debt. Of course, I never aligned with the idea that 120% debt/GDP ratio is a magic 'sustainability bound'. But, now, take a look at chart below:

Per IMF latest forecast, Ireland's 2012 Government debt will reach 117.6% of GDP (up on 113.2% forecast for 2012 back in April) and in 2013 it will peak at 121.1% of GDP (up on 117.7% forecast for 2013 back in April).

Note that for all our efforts, our Government debt/GDP ratio will be relatively close in 2013 to that of Italy (126.4% of GDP) and above Portugal (118.6% of GDP).

Pretty ugly.

24/6/2012: Sunday Times June 17, 2012

This is an unedited version of my Sunday Times column from June 17, 2012.

The current Government policy, and indeed the entire euro area crisis ‘management’ is an example of ‘the lesser of two evils’ con game. The basic set up involves presenting the crisis faced by the euro area or the Irish economy as a psychological construct, e.g. ‘We have nothing to fear, but fear itself’. Then present two options for the crisis resolution, similar to the choice given to Neo by Morpheus in the Matrix. You can take the blue pill, the surreal world you currently inhabit will continue unabated (the ATMs will keep working, the banks will be repaired, the economy will turn the corner, etc) but a cost of complying with the demands of the system (the banks bondholders and other lenders must be repaid, the EU systemic solutions must be embraced, confidence in the overall system must continue). Take the red pill, you go to the Wonderland and see how deep the rabbit-hole (of collapsed banks, wiped-out savings, destroyed front-line services, vulture-funds circling their prey, etc) goes.

Unlike in the Matrix, it’s not a strong, cool, confident Morpheus who’s offering the option, but Agent Smith, aka the Government and its experts. And, unlike in the Matrix, we are not heroic Neo, but scared humans, longing for stability and certainty in life. This disproportionality of the power of the State as the offerer of the false choice, and the powerlessness of the society assures the outcome – we take the blue pill and go on feeding the Matrix of European integration, harmonization, and self-validation. The very fact that the blue pill choice leads to the ever-accelerating crisis and ultimate demise of the entire system is irrelevant to our judgement. We are in a con-game.

How I know? I was told this by the Government own statistics.

We all agree that our real economic performance is abysmal. Take unemployment – officially, it rose to 14.8% in Q1 2012, unofficially, broader measure of unemployment – that including those recognized as being under-employed – is hovering over 22%.

But to-date, our fiscal performance has been so stellar, we are ‘exceeding Troika targets’. Right?

Ireland’s Exchequer deficit for the period from January 2012 through May was €6.5 billion or €3.7 billion below the same period last year. This ‘improvement’ in our deficit is due to €1 billion transfer from the banks customers and taxpayers (via banks holdings of Government bonds) to the Central Bank of Ireland that was paid out by the Central Bank to the Exchequer. Further ‘improvement’ was gained by the ‘non-payment’ of the €3.1 billion due on the promissory note, swapping one government debt for another.

Underlying day-to-day Government spending (ex-banks and interest payments on debt), meanwhile, is up year on year. Tax receipts are rising, up €1.6 billion, but if we take out the USC charge which represents reclassified non-tax receipts in the past currently being labelled as tax revenues, the increase shrinks to €726 million. In the mean time, interest costs on Irish national debt rose €1.3 billion on same period of 2011, wiping out all gains in tax revenues the Government has delivered on.

Take that blue pill, now and have a 15% increase on the 2007 levels of budgeted Government spending (protecting ‘frontline services’, like HSE senior executives payouts in restructuring and advisers salaries), or a red pill and face Armageddon. Yet, the red pill in this case would lead us to the realization that the entire charade of our reforms and austerity measures is nothing more than a false solution that risks making the crisis only worse.

This week, Professor Karmen Reinhart of the Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University was dispensing red pills of reality at the Infiniti 2012 conference over in Trinity College, Dublin. Her keynote address focused on the area she knows better than anyone else in this world – debt overhangs and the pain of deleveraging in resolving debt crises. The audience included many central bankers and monetary and fiscal policy experts from around the world, including even ECB. No one from the Irish Department of Finance, the NTMA or any branch of the Irish Government, save the Central Bank, showed up. Blue pills crowd don’t do red pills dispensations.

Professor Reinhart spoke extensively about Europe and, briefly, about Ireland. In our conversation after the speech, having met senior Irish Government decision makers, she reiterated that, like the rest of the euro area, Ireland will have to face up to the massive debt overhang in its fiscal, corporate and household sectors and restructure its debts or face a default. In 26 episodes of severe debt crises in the history of the world since the early-1800s she studied, only three were corrected without some sort of debt restructuring, and in all three, “the conditions that allowed these countries to resolve debt overhang problems absent debt restructuring are no longer present in today’s world”.

Worse than that, Professor Reinhart explicitly recognized that “Ireland has taken debt overhang to an entirely new, historically unparalleled, level”. She also pointed out, consistent with this column’s previously expressed view, that in the Irish case, it is the household debt that “represents the gravest threat to both short-term stability and long-term sustainability of the entire economic system”.

Per claims frequently made by the Government that debt deleveraging is on-going and progressing according to the policymakers’ expectations, Professor Reinhart stated that “in the US, deleveraging process had only just begun. Despite the fact that house foreclosures and corporate defaults have been on-going since 2008, the amount of deleveraging currently completed is not sufficient to erase the build up of debt that took place over preceding decades. With that, the US is well ahead of Europe and Ireland in terms of what will have to be achieved in terms of debt reductions.” Furthermore, “structural differences in personal and corporate insolvency laws between the US and Europe imply the need for even deeper debt restructuring, including direct debt forgiveness and writedowns in Europe. And, once again, Ireland is in the league of its own, compared to the European counterparts on personal bankruptcy regime.”

But don’t take Professor Reinhart’s and my points of view on this. Take a look at the forthcoming sixth EU Commission staff report on Ireland, leaked this week by the German Bundestag. The Troika is about to start dispensing its own red pills of reality to the Irish Government.

According to leaked report, the IMF and its European counterparts are becoming seriously concerned with two key failings of our reforms. The first one is the delay in putting in place measures to address – on a systemic basis, not in a case-by-case fashion as the Government insists on doing – the problem of households’ debts. Incidentally, this column has warned about this failure repeatedly since mid-2011. The second one is the rising risk that accelerating mortgages defaults pose to banks balancesheets. Again, this column covered this risk in April this year when we discussed the overall banks performance for 2011.

From independent analysts, to world-class researchers like Professor Reinhart, to Troika, red pills of reality are now vastly outnumbering the blue pills of denial that our Government-aligned experts are keen at dispensing. The problem is – no one seems to be capable of waking up inside the Matrix of our doomed policymaking.

To put it to the policymakers face, let me quote Professor Reinhart one more time: “Europe’s solution to the crisis, focusing on austerity instead of restructuring household and sovereign debts will only make the crisis worse. The pain of deleveraging is only starting. …Europe’s hope that growth can help in addressing the debt crisis is misplaced, both in terms of historical experiences and in terms of European economic realities.” And for our home-grown Mr Smiths: “Ireland’s current account surpluses [or exports growth] are welcomed and will be helpful [in deleveraging] but are not sufficient to avoid restructuring economy’s debts.” So fasten your seatbelt, Dorothy, cause Kansas is going bye-bye…

Charts:

Sources listed in the charts

Box-out:

Few months ago I highlighted in this very space the risks poised to the Irish banks and Nama from the excessive over-reliance, in the pre-crisis period on covered bonds and securitization-based funding. The core issue, relating to these two sources of funding, is the on-going deterioration of the quality of the collateral pools that have to be maintained to sustain the bonds covenants. Things are now going from bad to worse, and not only in Ireland. Per latest Moody’s Investors Service report, across Europe, 79 percent of all loans packaged into commercial mortgage-backed securities rated by the agency that came due in Q1 2012 were not repaid on time. Three years ago, the non-repayment rate was only 35 percent. Per Moody’s, “real estate with mortgages that match or exceed the value of the property… suffered defaults in nearly all cases in the first quarter. About a third of borrowers with LTV ratios of up to 80 percent didn’t pay on time.” If this is the dynamic across Europe as a whole, what are the comparable numbers for Ireland, one wonders? And what do these trends imply for the Irish banks and Nama?