11/6/2013: Irish Services Index: April 2013

Good news is: on an annual basis, per CSO, in April 2013:

• Administrative and Support Service Activities rose +21.3%, 
• Information and Communication went up +15.4%, 
• Other Service Activities +4.2%, 
• Transportation and Storage +1.4% and 
• Accommodation and Food Service Activities (+0.3%) increased 

On bad news front:

• Wholesale and Retail Trade were down -4.2% and 
• Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities fell -0.6%.

The seasonally adjusted monthly services value index increased by 1.2% in  April 2013 when compared with March 2013 and there was an annual increase of 4.1%.

As you would know, I am not covering Services PMIs anymore, as these are no longer being released in any useful data format (Markit has decided to exclude reporting of actual levels of sub-components for PMIs, preferring to practically give instead its analysts personal opinion about these levels). 

However, I will continue reporting CSO data.

So here's more detailed analysis:

• Wholesale Trade sub-index rose from 106 in March to 114.1 in April, marking a 7.64% rise m/m and a decline of 4.68% y/y. 3mo MA through April 2013 stood at 110.23, down on 116.67 3mo MA through January 2013 and down sharply on 122.07 3mo MA through April 2012. 6mo MA through April 2013 is at 113.45, down on 121.10 6mo MA through April 2012.
• Wholesale and Retail Trade, repair of vehicles sub-index improved from 102.3 in March 2013 to 105.7 in April 2013 (+3.32%), but the index is down 4.17% on April 2012. 3mo MA through April 2013 is at 104.3 against 3mo MA through April 2012 at 111.27; 6mo MA through April 2013 is at 106.32 against 6mo MA through April 2012 at 110.80.
• Transport & Storage sub-index is at 113.4 in April 2013 up marginally (+0.62%) m/m and up 1.43% y/y. 3mo MA through April 2013 is at 111.83 up on year ago 3mo MA of 106.83. 6mo MA through April 2013 is at 111.18, up on 6mo MA through April 2012 at 106.73.

• Accommodation & Food Services slipped from 105.9 in March 2013 to 102.7 in April 2013 (-3.02%) and the index is up only 0.29% y/y. 3mo MA through April 2013 is at 103.2, which is up on 3mo MA through April 2012 at 101.2. Similarly, 6mo MA through April 2013 is at 103.77 which is up on previous year level of 101.3.
• Much of the improvements in the above sector was driven by rising value of food services, up 3.51% y/y. Accommodation services actually fell 1.35% y/y and were down 9.07% m/m.
• Administrative and support services activity also improved m/m (+1.66%) and rose strongly by +21.31% y/y. Huge gains were recorded in the activity on 3mo MA basis y/y and 6mo MA y/y basis. I have no explanation to this other than possibly reclassification of some activities into this category, plus boom in on-line services centres in Dublin (much of google and other ICT services firms activities here relate to support and admin, rather than R&D or professional work).

• ICT services continue to boom, rising 15.42% y/yin April, although slipping 1.59% m/m from the historical record-breaking levels in March 2013. on 3mo MA basis, April 2013 stood at 122.13 strongly up on previous year levels of 109.87. On 6mo MA basis, April 2013 came in at 120.42, up on 110.42 a year ago.
• In contrast to ICT services and Admin services, Professional, scientific and technical activities index declined for the third month in a row, falling to 91.0 in April 2013 from 91.2 in March 2013 (-0.22%) and is marginally lower (-0.55%) y/y. 3mo MA through April 2013 is at 91.4 and it is virtually flat on 3mo MA through April 2012 (91.2). 6mo MA through April 2014 at 91.0 is down on 94.5 6mo MA through April 2012.

• Overall Services sector activity index rose 1.21% m/m from 107.7 in March 2013 to 109.0 in April 2013, and is up 4.11% y/y. 3mo MA through April 2013 is at 107.63 which compares marginally positively against 105.4 3mo MA a year ago. 6mo MA through April 2013 is at 107.62, also marginally up on 105.47 6mo MA through April 2012. However, 3mo MA through April 2013 was identical to 3mo MA through January 2013, implying zero growth, and 6mo MA through April 2013 was slightly ahead of 6mo MA through October 2013 (107.6 relative to 105.9).

7/5/2013: Irish Services Index, Q1 2013 data

Irish Services Index is out today for Q1 2013 and here are some details (monthly data analysis to follow). Keep in mind, data only starts from Q1 2009, so when referencing current levels of activity to peak, that refers to peak from Q1 2009 and not relative to pre-crisis activity.

• Value in Wholesale & Retail Trade, Repair of Motor Vehicles & Motorcycles sector declined in Q1 2013 to 105.2 q/q (down 3.22% from 108.7 in Q4 2012) and is down 5.40% y/y. Q4 2012 value index was down 1.36% y/y, so things are getting worse faster. Relative to peak (since 2009 Q1 data start) the index is now down 5.40%. 
• Value index for Transportation and Storage sector slipped marginally from 110.5 in Q4 2012 to 110.0 in Q1 2013 (-0.45% q/q) and is up 5.97% y/y. However, rate of annual growth declined in Q1 2013 compared to Q4 2012 when it stood at 8.97%. Relative to peak the index is still down 9.39%.
• Accommodation and food services activities index also slipped marginally from 104.7 in Q4 2012 to 104.3 in Q1 2013 (down 0.38% q/q). Y/y index is up 3.48% in Q1 2013 and this is a slight gain on 3.05% y/y growth in Q4 2012. However, relative to peak index reading is still down 14.86%.

• Information and communication sector index remained practically flat in Q1 2013 in q/q terms at 116.6 which is only 0.09% up on 116.5 in Q4 2012. Y/y index is up 3.83% and this shows deceleration in growth from +8.47% growth posted in Q4 2012. Despite this, Q1 2013 marks the peak of activity in this sector for any quarter since Q1 2009.
• In contrast with ICT sector activity, the knowledge economy core services sub-sector, Professional, scientific and technical activities index has suffered steep declines since 2009. In Q1 2013 the index stood at 91.2 (up 0.22% q/q) up only 0.55% y/y. This marks a minor reversal of a significant decline of -8.36% recorded in 12 month through Q4 2012. The index is down massive 29.14% on peak.

• Administrative and support service activities index has been a surprising performer during the crisis. In Q4 2012 it stood at 104.7 and Q1 2013 this increased to 110.4 a gain of 5.44% q/q. Index is now up 20.92% y/y and this compounds 11.38% y/y growth recorded in Q4 2012. Q1 2013 marks the peak quarter on record for the sub-sector.
• Overall services index slipped from 107.2 in Q4 2012 to 106.2 in Q1 2013 (-0.93% q/q), although activity is still up 0.85% y/y. Y/y growth in Q1 2013 marks a slowdown from 2.19% y/y expansion in Q4 2012. The index overall is 0.93% below the peak and is currently running slightly behind the level of activity recorded in Q1 2009.

Overall, quarterly data shows weakening in Services sectors performance, and stripping out the effects of ICT (dominated by tax transfers-booking MNCs), Services side of the economy is showing weaknesses that are alarming. Recall that exports of services growth in 2010-2012 acted to compensate for declines in domestic demand and weaker growth (turning negative) in exports of goods. Should Services activity continue to suffer even modest declines, our GDP and GNP growth will be impaired. 

To see more forward-looking data, read my analysis of Services PMI for April: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2013/05/352013-irish-services-pmi-april-2013.html

4/5/2013: Profit margins in Irish Services and Manufacturing: April 2013

Since I've been updating my database on PMI for Ireland (see Manufacturing PMI baseline results for April, as well as a post on Services PMI and a post on latest trends in employment as signalled by PMIs), it is also time to update dynamics analysis on profitability in both sectors.

Now, Services PMI survey covers profitability as a separate question, and it is reported in the post linked above. There is no comparative question in PMI for Manufacturing survey.

Over time, I have been tracking implied profitability changes in both sectors on a comparable basis as a difference between changes in input costs and output charges by the reporting firms. In a sense - it is a metric of profit margins dynamics that is comparable across both sectors.


Profit margins index for Services has declined from -14.29 in March 2013 to -16.39 in April. April reading was worse than -11.96 a year ago and worse than 12mo MA at -15.7. Dynamically, 3mo MA through April is at -15.0 which represents worsening in profitability conditions compared to -13.6 average for 3mo through January 2013 and is worse than -13.8 3mo average through April 2012.

Longer-term comparatives: since January 2012 through April 2013, Services profitability index averaged -15.31 - a rate of profit margins decline that is worse than the average rate recorded for 3 years period of January 2009-December 2011.

Profit margins in Manufacturing sectors have also deteriorated in April 2013 at -7.32, but the rate of deterioration was slower than in March 2013 when it stood at -12.04 and much slower than -22.86 rate of decline in profit margins recored in April 2012.

12mo MA is now at -11.1 and 3mo average rate was -15.2 for 3 months through January 2013, while 3mo average for February-April 2013 is at much more benign -9.9. In other words, there is moderation in the rate of margins decreases in recent months.

Longer-term dynamics are shown on the chart below in terms of 3 year averages. Since January 2012 through April 2013, Manufacturing profitability index averaged -13.83 - a rate of profit margins decline that is better than the average rate recorded for 3 years period of January 2009-December 2011 (-14.1). January 2012-April 2013, average rate of deterioration is still the second worst on the record.

An interesting aside: notice significant improvements in profitability in late 2008 - mid 2010 being exhausted in 2011-present in the Services sector and similar, but slightly differently timed changes in Manufacturing? These nicely coincide with the period of most dramatic unit labour costs declines and overall cost-competitiveness gains in the Irish economy. And, just as those gains virtually stopped in 2011-on, so did profit margins conditions improvements.

3/5/2013: Irish Employment in Services & Manufacturing: April PMIs

On foot of both NCB Manufacturing PMI and NCB Services PMI for Ireland for April 2013, let's take a look at underlying employment conditions signals from the two core sectors of the economy.

From the top:

Manufacturing and Services PMI readings continued to diverge in April for the 5th consecutive month, with headline PMI readings for:

• Manufacturing PMI falling to 48.0 in April from 48.6 in March marking the second consecutive monthly sub-50 reading. 12mo MA is now at 51.3 and Q1 2013 average is at 50.1 so things are moving South for Manufacturing in recent months.
• Services PMI rising to 55.2 in April from 52.3 in March. 12mo MA is at 53.3 and Q1 2013 average is 54.2, implying PMI readings moving North for Services in recent months.

These trends in overall PMI readings were broadly repeated in the Employment sub-index dynamics:

• Employment index for Manufacturing slipped to 46.9 in which is significantly below 50.0 and marks second consecutive month of declines and sub-50 readings. In the last 6 months, index declined 4 times, but was below 50.0 only in two months. 12mo MA is at 51.3, but Q1 2013 average is 50.1 and this comes after 52.0 average for Q4 2012. So things are sliding and sliding rather fast.
• Employment index for Services, in contrast, posted a robust increase in April to 55.2 from 52.3 in March. April marked ninth consecutive month of employment increases being signaled by Services PMI, which is a good strong trend. Thus, 12mo MA is at robust 53.3 and Q1 2013 average is at 54.2 - a slower rate of growth on Q4 2012 average of 56.0, but statistically significant growth nonetheless.

Tables detailing employment indices changes below:

Manufacturing:

Services:

Now for the reminder: Employment in Services has far less tangible connection to actual sector activity than Employment in Manufacturing, with volatility-adjusted 1 point increase in respective headline PMI implying 0.67 units increase in employment index in Services against 0.87 units rise in manufacturing employment index over historical data horizons:

Click on the chart to see in detail the overall dynamics y/y for April in employment and PMI indices, clearly showing the switch between Services and Manufacturing in terms of the sectors' position relative to economic recovery. If in 2011 Services were a drag on growth and employment, while Manufacturing was experiencing strong gains, by 2013 Services became the core driver for positive momentum in both growth and employment, with Manufacturing pushing economic activity and employment down.

3/5/2013: Irish Services PMI April 2013: Some good, some make-believe news

For a change from the declining fortunes of Irish manufacturing (aka, production of at least some real tangible stuff by humans, albeit richly peppered with tax arbitrage), the accounting trick called Irish Services (aka, billing of services sold in Mongolia to Dublin by companies minimising tax exposures in the US) is booming.

Good news for GDP. Good or bad news (depending on capex cycle and financial engineering - as exhibited by Apple 'bond' offer this week, etc) for GNP. Even better news for the Government solemnly incapable of supporting growth at home, and thus solely reliant on Mongolian demand for 'Irish' services and Obama administration lag in realising that another corporate tax amnesty is long overdue (note to the White House: check out Ireland's IFSC deposits).

Latest NCB Services PMI for Ireland published today show continued expansion in Services sector:

• Headline Services PMI rose from 52.3 in March to 55.2 in April - statistically significantly above 50.0 for the first time since January 2013. This marks ninth consecutive monthly reading above 50.0, and sixth time the index is above 50 with statistically significant margin.
• Good news: this time around there was significant growth signaled in Transport, Travel, Tourism & Leisure sector (potentially due to twin effects of The Gathering and the EU Presidency - which should really count as subsidy activities this year). However, another significant driver in upside growth were Financial Services (aka IFSC). Business Services and Technology, Media & Telecoms services both recorded moderation in the rate of growth, as signaled by PMI.
• On dynamics side, 12mo MA through April 2013 for Business Activity headline index now stands at 53.3, with 3mo average at 53.7. Both are below 3mo average through January 2013 which stood at 56.2, so there is still some slowdown in the rate of growth. Latest 3mo average is ahead of same period 3mo averages for 2010-2012.

Per last chart above, 

• New Business sub-index remained practically unchanged at 54.2 in April, compared to March (54.1) with both months posting reading statistically above 50.0 - which is good news.
• On dynamics side, 12mo MA was at 53.7 in April 2013 - a healthy reading, with 3mo MA through April 2013 almost bang on at 12mo average level of activity at 53.8. Previous 3mo average through January 2013 was at blistering 56.5, so there is some marked slowdown in the rate of growth. Nonetheless, last 3 months marked the fastest growth for the same three months period for any year since 2010.
• April 2013 was the ninth consecutive month of New Business sub-index readings above 50.0, with seven of these months posting readings statistically significantly above 50.0.

I will blog separately on employment and profitability in both services and manufacturing so stay tuned for details on these.

Business confidence and New Export Business sub-indices both showed some slowdown in growth, but still remain in rude health. On foot of this, employment growth rate improved:

Overall, sarcasm aside, the Services sectors continued to support economic growth, even though much of this growth is coming from the make-believe tax arbitrage stuff. Still, better have make-believe dosh than none at all. And a welcomed reprieve from the past years' trials for the Travel & Toursim sector too.

One note of caution, though: Irish Services PMI have little to do with Irish Services actual activity levels... see here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2013/04/742013-irish-services-activity-index.html

7/4/2013: Irish Services Activity Index - February 2013

Irish Services activity fell in February 2013 per latest CSO data, marking second consecutive month of decline. In February 2013, Irish services index dropped 1.03% m/m and was down 0.45% y/y. The index 3mo MA is now at 106.43, only slightly ahead of 106.07 in 3mo period through November 2012, and still ahead of 105.43 3mo MA through February 2012. The same dynamics are repeated at the 6mo MA level.

Largest m/m declines were recorded in Wholesale Trade (-7.17% m/m and down 10.71% y/y), Accommodation & Food Services (-1.89% m/m and down 0.69% y/y). Largest m/m increases were in Administrative & Support Services (+2.95% m/m and up 15.74% y/y) and in Professional, Scientific & Technical Activities (+1.68% m/m and 2.02% y/y). 

In annualised terms, largest increases were recorded in Administrative & Support Services (+15.74% y/y), Accommodation Services (+6.92% y/y) and Transport & Storage (+5.61%).

One interesting point in terms of longer range analysis:

As chart above shows, the PMI data for Services Activity continues to bear no relations to the actual Services Activity Index measurements. Recall that in January and February, Services Activity Index posted two consecutive declines in activity. Over the same months, PMI for Services posted robust growth signals at 56.8 in january and 53.6 in February.

11/3/2013: Irish Services Activity: January 2013

In an earlier post I covered annual figures for Services Index for Ireland (link here). Today's release from CSO also provides data for January 2013 (monthly series) and here is the detailed analysis of shorter-term series.

• Wholesale Trade activity index rose in January 10 118.8 from December 2012 level of 115.2 (+3.13% m/m). The index is down 1.49% y/y. 3mo average is at 117.23 up on previous 3mo average of 115.93, but down on 3mo average through January 2012 which stood at 120.47. 6mo average is 116.6 against previous 6mo average of 120.9 and a year ago 6mo average of 119.9. Thus, at 3mo average activity through January 2013 is slower than through January 2012. Ditto for 6mo average.
• Wholesale & Retail Trade, Repair of Motor Vehicles and Motorcycles activity index increased to 108.9 in January 2013 - up 1.02% m/m, but down 1.27% y/y. 3mo average through January 2013 is static compared to 3mo average through October 2012 and is down on 3mo average through January 2012. 6mo average through January 2013 is down on 6mo average through July 2012 and down on 6mo average through January 2012. Slowdown in the broader category, therefore, is more pronounced and stretched over the last 12 months than in Wholesale Trade alone.
• Transport & Storage services activity index dipped from 112.1 in December 2012 to 111.5 in January 2013, a decline of 0.54% m/m. However, the index is up 10.29% y/y. 3mo average is statistically indifferent in 3mo through January 2013 (111.3), as in 3 mo through October 2012 (111.9), but is significantly ahead of 3mo through January 2012 (101.2). 6mo average through January 2013 (111.62) is ahead of 6mo average through July 2012 and ahead of 6mo average through January 2012.
• Accommodation & Food services index declined in January 2013 to 103.5, down 1.33% m/m and marked second consecutive monthly decline. The index is up 2.38% in y/y terms. 3mo average through January 2013 is at 104.6, which is lower than 3mo average though October 2012 (105.63) but above 3mo average through January 2012 (101.6). On 6mo average basis activity through January 2013 was ahead of activity through July 2012 which itself was ahead of activity in 6 months through January 2012.
• Information & Communication services activity declined in January 2013 from 121.7 in December 2012 to 119.8 (decline of 1.56% m/m) although activity was strongly up (+11.76%) on January 2012. 3mo average through January 2013 was at 118.7, well above 3mo average through October 2012 (112.23) and 3mo average through January 2012 (108.43). Similar increases are traceable to 6mo averages.
• Professional, Scientific & Technical activities index rose to 90.2 in January from 89.4 in December 2012 (+0.89% m/m) although the index is down 1.85% y/y. 3mo average through January 2013 is at 90.53, ahead of 3mo average through October 2012 (87.83), but behind 3mo average through January 2012 (98.13). Similar dynamics can be traced across 6mo averages.
• Administrative & Support services index rose strongly from 100.7 in December 2012 to 104.2 in January 2013 (+3.48% m/m). The index is up incredible 19.63% y/y and I am at a loss as to how this can be explained given the current economic environment and fiscal consolidation. on 6mo average basis index is up from 91.88 average for 6mo through January 2012 to 102.63 average for 6mo through January 2013.

Charts to illustrate:

• Total services activity inched up to 107.9 in January 2013 from 107.7 in December 2012. Year on year, the index clocked a rise of 4.35%. 3mo average through January 2013 was at 107.57 - ahead of 3mo average a year before (105.73).

Despite these above improvements, overall services activity remains below the long-term recovery trend, albeit, owing to the strength of Wholesale Trade and ICT sectors (see the annual data analysis for these) and to the surprise uptick in Admin & Support services, the sector is tracing a shallow U-shaped recovery path so far. From January 2009, it took the index 16 months to hit the bottom, and we are 32 months into the recovery now, with still 1.55% to go (1.86% on 3mo average basis) before regaining January 2009 levels of activity. We will, barring unexpected events, close this gap in the next 2-3 months, but do keep in mind that January 2009 was already 1 year into contracting services activity in the first place.

11/3/2013: Irish Services Sectors Activity in 2012

Data for 2012 end of the year index of activity in Irish Services sectors is out and before I cover monthly data for January 2013, here are some annual results:

• Wholesale trade services activity expanded 4.03% in 2011-2012, after growing 14.2% in 2010-2011. In 2012 the sub-sector activity was up 31.6% on 2009 and up 18.8 on 2010 making this the fastest growing sub-sector in all Irish services since 2009.
• Wholesale and retail trade, repairs of motor vehicles and motorcycles sub-sector activity grew 2.24% in 2012 compared to 2011 after having expanded 7.2% in 2010-2011. Over 2009-2012 the sub-sector activity grew incredible 14.6% all of which was driven solely by growth in wholesale trade, offset by shrinkages in retail and other sub-sector activities.
• Transportation and storage sub-sector activity expanded 5.39% in 2011-2012 period, having grown at 3.8% in 2010-2011 period. Since 2009 through 2012 sub-sector activity shrunk by 1.88%.
• Accommodation and food services activities expanded at 2.27% in 2011-2012, following growth of 1.4% in 2010-2011 period. Between 2009 and the end of 2012, sub-sector activity was down 6.74%. Accommodation sub-sector alone grew 2.18% in 2011-2012 after posting growth of 5.4% in 2010-2011 and the index is on the aggregate still down 3.67% on 2009. Bizarrely, Food services activities grew since 2009 through 2012 at 1.76%, and this sub-sector posted expansion of 6.80% in 2011-2012 that followed growth of 2.9% in 2010-2011 period.
• Information and Communication sub-sector activity was the star of the show in 2011-2012, rising 8.40% on foot of 3.6% growth in 2010-2011. The sub-sector is now up 20.11% on 2009 making this the second fastest growing sub-sector in Irish services after Wholesale trade.
• Professional, scientific & technical activities sub-sector activity was the worst performing sub-sector in 2011-2012, shrinking 10.39%. This followed growth of 1.1% in 2010-2011. The sub-sector activity is now down 23.80% on 2009 making it overall the worst performing sub-sector, even worse than the Services (68, 92 to 96) sub-sector described below.
• Administrative and support services activity sub-sector clearly doesn't have much in common with the sub-sectors that usually require significant admin & support (e.g. professional, scientific and technical areas of activities) as it posted an robust growth rate of 7.54% in 2011-2012, albeit on foot of strong contraction of 7.2% in 2010-2011 period.The sub-sector activity is cumulatively up 2.67% on 2009. Either Irish exports are becoming more bureaucratised to warrant increases in Admin & supports, or there's some sort of substitution from shrinking public sector employment to temps and outsourced services. Otherwise, why on earth would an economy in a deep slowdown post growth in this category on 2009 figures?
• Services (68, 92 to 96) encompassing Real Estate activities, Gambling and betting activities and Other personal service activities were down 3.48% in 2011-2012, following virtually zero (+0.7%) expansion in 2010-2011. The grouping is down 19.67% on 2009 levels of activity.

Overall, for all services covered in the CSO data, sector growth clocked at 2.52% in 2011-2012 period, down from 3.3% growth in 2010-2011. Not a good sign, but better than posting negative growth, I guess. Compared to 2009, sector activity is up miserly 3.52%. And that is despite increases in R&D spending, massive hikes in availability of state-financed VC and angel investment (via Enterprise Ireland), big-time focus on incentives (including tax incentives) in 'key' sectors etc. Not exactly an achievement to brag about, but, again, could have been worse.

Here's another interesting chart:

As I mentioned above, Professional, scientific & technical activities sub-sector activity was down 23.80% on 2009 making it overall the worst performing sub-sector in all services sectors covered. Which isn't going well with the claims we keep hearing about our 'knowledge economy' and 'smart economy' and the rest of the hoopla surrounding branding like 'Innovation Island'. Looks like stripping ICT, there is not much of 'knowledge'-intensive trading going on out there. And we take out IFSC, the whole landscape of 'knowledge-based economy' might just as well start resembling a veritable desert? Instead, the 'traditional' (aka not 'smart' according to our Government policies priorities) wholesale trade is driving the sector activity, plus the 'smart' ICT sector.

And one last point. Here's the Services PMI data for Ireland for the period covered above in the index (see latest data here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2013/03/533013-irish-services-pmis-february-2013.html) ...

Strange that a lift-off in PMI from ca 35 average in 2009 to 52 average in 2012 should be translating into only 3.5% increase in actual services activity, no? Sort of suggests something bizarre going on in PMI data, right? Hello, Markit!.. Station Earth paging...

5/3/3013: Irish Services PMIs: February 2013

Irish Services PMI (published by NCB) for February were out today, highlighting some interesting (for a change) shifts in the short-term trends worth discussing.

The headline numbers were good, although less strong than those recorded in January. This is not surprising since PMI surveys are biased toward multinationals in some core driving sectors (due to weighting factors attached to sectors and the overall quality, collection and reporting of data biases).

• Seasonally-adjusted Business Activity (headline index) declined to 53.6 in February from 56.8 in January 2013, but remained above 50.0 line. 
• 12mo MA through February 2013 was 53.0, which is not statistically significantly different from 50.0, but nonetheless represents a reading consistent with moderately strong expansion of activity. This marks the seventh consecutive month of readings above 50.0 although February was the second slowest month for activity over this latest period of consecutive expansions.
• 3mo MA through February is now identical to the previous 3mo MA through November 2012 - both at 55.4. For comparative purposes: 3mo MA through February 2010 was 47.2, through February 2011 - 52.1, through February 2012 - 50.0, so annualised activity is running ahead of previous 3 years.
• Main point to be made in the above is that since roughly April 2010, we have been trending along a new late- or post-crisis trend along the average of 52.1 average (49.6 to 54.6 range) as compared to May 2000-December 2007 average of 57.6 (52.5 to 62.7 range). As charts above and below clearly show, the new trend is (1) lower and (2) less steep in take-offs from the local minima (lows). In my view - this shows two factors: Factor 1: overall slower rate of growth (do keep in mind that the current trend is coming off historical lows of the Great Recession and should be consistent with much faster uplift and higher average and range than pre-crisis trend), and Factor 2: more mature nature of business in Irish Services sectors (with ICT and Financial Services now in advanced stages of late investment cycle compared to the period of 2000-2007 when these were growing rapidly and posting recovery from the dot.com bubble).

Now on to some of the components of the headline index.

• Chart above shows that New Business sub-index also posted moderation in the rate of growth in February 2013 compared to five months of robust expansion prior to February. In fact, February reading of 53.1 was the slowest pace of expansion in seven months, although it does come on foot of seven months of consecutive above 50.0 readings. 
• Trend-wise, the same conclusions that were drawn in the last bullet point on the headline index - those relating to structurally slower pace of growth in the recent years compared to pre-crisis rates of expansion - continue to hold for New Business sub-index as well. Since April 2010, the sub-index averaged 51.3 (range of 48.4 to 54.2) against pre-crisis (May 2000-December 2007) average of 57.4 (range of 52.4 to 62.5).
• On short-term dynamics, 3mo MA through February 2013 stood at 55.4, slightly down on 55.8 3mo MA through November 2012, but ahead of 47.2 3mo MA through February 2010, ahead of 52.1 3mo MA through February 2011 and ahead of 50.2 3mo MA through February 2012.

Chart below summarises the shorter-range data for the two core indices.

Two charts plotting other principal components of the overall index:

Focusing on few sub-series of interest:

• Employment sub-index remained above 50.0 in February, posting a reading of 52.5 - the shallowest expansion since September 2012, but marking a sixth consecutive month above 50.0. 3mo MA now is at 54.1 and previous 3mo MA through November 2012 was at 53.0. Good news - in 2009-2012 3mo MA through February was below 50.0 in every year. Bad news is that Employment is closely linked with Profitability (see below).
• Business Confidence / Expectations 6mo out are continuing to fly high, propelled most likely by a combination of current upbeat conditions (the two series: Expectations and Current Conditions show the strongest co-determining relationship of all series, suggesting that the real driver for Expectations is not actual anticipation of the future events, but rather firms' assessment of current conditions) and by the endless barrage of feel-good propaganda from the business lobby and the State. The last, third factor, is human nature (aka 'winner's curse' bias). We expect things to get better because they were pretty damn awful until now and for a very long time... Come on, folks, let's face the music - unless you are a transfer-pricing arbitraging MNC, things are hardly getting any better. And, unless you live in the world of Googlites (aka 25-30 year olds with no attachment to anything save a party on a weekend) you are facing a mountain of debt, shrinking assets and wealth, higher taxes and the prospect of more of the same. What 'confidence at 69.1' can we have in mind? 
• Oh, and to top things up - you'd think that Confidence comes from higher profits for the firms... Well, in the Wonderland of Transfer Pricing it is not and hence in Ireland we have Services sector where profitability is shrinking (41.5 in February on 49.2 in January) for 62 consecutive months now (since January 2008, every month there was negative profitability growth, with the average shrinkage at 41.9 - aka very very very deep contraction), but businesses confidence has been up on average at 60.9 - aka very very strong confidence growth on monthly basis).

If anything, aside from the major trend outlined in the first set of bullet points above, the point on Confidence and Profitability is the second main conclusion from the longer-term data analysis, for it exposes the surreal nature of the Irish economy - economy distorted by extreme transfer pricing and tax optimisation activities of the MNCs.

Now, let's touch briefly on the main short-term observation from today's data release: the core drivers for each of the main sub-series:

• When it comes to Business Activity index, level support at 53.6 in February was provided by a broader base of sectors, with Technology, Media & Telecoms sector (TMTS) posting comparable expansion to Transport, Travel, Tourism & Leisure sector (TTTLS). This is similar to what was observed back in October 2011 and is an improvement on the trend that (at least over the last six months) have seen TMTS being the main and dominant driver of the index improvements.
• Business Activity Index for Expectations out 12 months ahead was dominated (as in every one of the previous 6 months) by TMTS, with Business Services Index coming in as the second upside driver (same as in January 2013).
• TMTS was the main driver for the third consecutive month behind growth in Incoming New Business, while Financial Services were the main driver over the last 4 months behind the growth in the Incoming New Export Business.
• In Employment generation, TMTS again outstripped all other sectors for the third consecutive month, which, of course, means we are only reinforcing the demographic misalignment emerging in the economy with main generation of new jobs taking place in sectors that are more reliant on importing skills from abroad.
• TMTS was the only sector in which profitability improved in February 2013 (same as in December 2012 and January 2013). In all other sectors, profitability was in decline for the third consecutive month. Why, you might ask? Interestingly, TMTS saw the sharpest countermovement in input/output prices, with input costs posting sharpest acceleration in February, and output costs posting the sharpest deterioration. In any normal economy that would mean shrinking, not expanding, profit margins. But in Ireland, of course, there is little normal about the TMTS sector dominated by the massive MNCs aggressively using their Irish activities for tax arbitrage from their European and even global operations.

Some interesting stuff, eh? You bet official 'analysis' of Irish PMIs is not talking about any of this...

10/2/2013: Irish Services Index: Still Searching for a Catalyst

Catching up with some data updates, the latest monthly data for Services sectors activity in Ireland was out recently (see link to CSO release here). The data overall points to weaknesses in Services in December 2012, as the summary table shows:

However, let's take a look at subtrends and subsectors:

• Wholesale Trade sub-index fell 4.01% m/m in December 2012 to 112.4 and was down 7.11% y/y. 3mo average through December 2012 is at 115.37 - well ahead of December 2012 monthly reading of 112.4, but down on 3mo average through September 2012 which stood at 116.23. 3mo average through December 2011 was 120.2 - significantly ahead of the average activity recorded in 3mo through December 2012. December 2012 reading was statistically within the historic average.
• Wholesale and Retail Trade, Repair of Vehicles etc sub-sector activity fell 2.65% m/m and was down 4.23% y/y in December 2012. 3mo average through December 2012 (108.57) was ahead of December monthly reading (106.4) and virtually unchanged on 3mo average reading through September 2012 (108.27). However the index reading and its 3mo average were both behind 3mo average through December 2011 (110.57). Similar deterioration in performance marked H2 2012 readings relative to H1 2012 and H2 2011.
• Transportation and Storage sub-sector activity remained relatively flat in December (110.1) compared to November (110.0) rising just 0.09% m/m, although the series are up 6.17% y/y. 3mo average through December 2012 (110.07) is below 3mo average through September 2012 (112.77), but well ahead of 3mo average through December 2011 (101.93). H2 2012 average stands ahead of H1 2012 average.

Per chart above, 

• Accommodation and Food Services sub-sector activity remained largely unchanged in December 2012 (105.5) compared to November 2012 (105.6) with 0.095% decline m/m contrasting 1.74% rise y/y. 3mo average through December 2012 (104.97) was only marginally ahead of 3mo average through September 2012 (104.83) and is ahead of 102.27 reading for 3mo average through December 2011. H1 2012 average was at 101.83 and this rose to 104.9 for H2 2012 average. December 2012 marks the fifth highest index reading since November 2009.
• Within the above sub-sector, Accommodation activity fell 0.18% m/m and rose 9.34% y/y - the largest rise in annual terms of all sub-sectors. Accommodation activity performance was particularly strong in H2 2012 (3mo average through December 2012 was 109.47 and 3mo average through September 2012 was 109.83) when activity index averaged at 109.65, compared to H1 2012 when it averaged 103.95.
• Administrative services fell 2.64% m/m but are still up 3.75% y/y, with 3mo average through December 2012 (102.17) virtually identical to 3mo average through September 2012 (102.20) and both ahead of 3mo average through December 2011 (92.0). H1 activity came in at slower pace than H2.

In heavily exporting sub-sectors of Services:

• ICT services activity rose 4.23% m/m in December 2012 (to 118.3) and was up 9.13% y/y. 3mo average through December 2012 stood at 114.83, ahead of 3mo average through September (110.17) and ahead of 3mo average through December 2011 (107.43). H2 2012 average activity stood at 112.5, up on 110.33 average for H1. The sub-index hit an all-time high in December 2012.
• In contrast with ICT Services, Professional, Scientific & Technical Activities have recorded an unpleasant contraction of 3.82% m/m in December 2012 to 88.2. The index is now 11.8% behind its average activity in 2010 and it has fallen a massive 16.40% y/y. 3mo average through December 2012 stood at 90.23, slightly up on abysmal 3mo average through September 2012 (86.8) but well below the 3 mo average through December 2011 (99.0). H2 average activity (88.52) was well below H1 2012 average activity (92.4) and well below H2 2011 activity (99.45).

Chart above provides outline for the overall Services Activity Index:

• The index has declined marginally (-0.66%) m/m to 106.0 in December 2012 and is now down 1.12% y/y. 3mo average through December 2012 was slightly healthier at 106.43 than the 3mo average reading through September 2012 (104.87), with 3mo average through December 2011 recording 105.0. However, overall H2 2012 average was practically unchanged at 105.65 against H1 2012 average of 105.43.
• The index is now reading below its momentum trend and is only marginally above (statistically) its historical average. As the chart above clearly shows, Irish Services Sector has been bouncing along a flat for some 13 months now, following a rise in twelve months before December 2011.
• Overall, thus, the data is not very encouraging. The sector seems to be searching for a catalyst to either the upside or the downside. Transport & Storage, ICT Services and Accommodation provide some hope (on the basis of y/y comparatives for 3mo average through December 2012, as well as December own y/y changes) for the future, whilst Wholesale services, as well as Professional, Scientific and Technical services creating a powerful downward drag.

5/2/2013: Services PMI v CSO Services Index... hmm...

In the previous post, I raised some questions about the real tangible quality of the PMI data for Services when it comes to reflecting upon the Irish economy. Here is a bit of more disturbing evidence. I plotted in the chart below the contemporaneous index of services sectors activity as measured by the CSO and the services PMI.

In short - there is no relationship. It is effectively zero. So either PMI does not accurately reflect services activity, or services activity index doesn't reflect it. Or more likely - both series have serious shortfalls. However, overall the question about PMI for services validity in providing an insight into the real economy is still open...

5/2/2013: Irish Services PMI for January 2013

The latest data from Services PMIs - released this am - is full of positive news. In this light, it is both hard and, perhaps, unjust to rain on the parade with detailed analysis of hypotheticals. But, alas, this is what needed for the dose of reality check.

Before we do, here are the straight forward numbers.

Overall headline Business Activity index rose to 56.8 in January 2013 from seasonally adjusted 55.8 in December 2012 - a strong level of activity that marks the highest index reading for any month since August 2007 when the index reached 57.0.

This is the good bit. And it gets even better when we consider 3mo MA to smooth out some of the monthly index volatility: current 3mo MA stands at 56.2, ahead of previous 3mo MA through October 2012 of 53.9. Year ago, 3mo MA was at contractionary 49.8 and in 2011 the same period 3mo MA was at 50.7 against 2010 3mo MA through January reading 46.5. In other words, we have solid increase in 3mo MA, which is more sustainable reading than monthly series.

12mo MA is at robust 53.0, implying that last 6 months have seen, on average, stronger activity in the sector (55.1) than February-July 2012 (50.9). Also good news.

Chart to illustrate:

Per chart above, Business Activity expansion was backed by New Business Index growth. New Business Index reading reached 56.6 in January, up on already strong reading of 56.4 in December. However, unlike overall activity, new business expansion was not as dramatic in historic terms, with January marking third fastest rate of expansion in 6 months. 3mo MA through January 2013 stood at 56.5 - faster than 54.5 3mo MA through October 2012. In 2012, same period 3mo MA was 49.9 and in 2011 it was 47.6, while in 2010 it was 46.8, which means that the last 3mo MA expansionary reading (and strong one at that) is the first expansionary reading in 4 years.

12mo MA for New Business Activity is now at 53.4, with last 6mo MA at 55.5 against first 6mo MA at 51.3, suggesting that New Business Activity is a major driver behind Overall Business Activity acceleration in the last 6 months.

Chart below shows snapshot of both indices over shorter period of time, allowing for better understanding of the underlying short term trend:

The close coincidence in series since November 2011 is indicative that sector activity is gaining momentum on foot of New Business Orders (as opposed to jobs inventories and backlogs) and trend acceleration since July 2012 also shows sustained momentum.

All of this is good news. And there is more. New Export Business index rose to 63.5 in January from 61.3 in December, marking the highest reading in series history with previous record of 63.3 reached in June 2006. 3mo MA through January 2013 is at 60.3, against previous 3mo MA of 55.5. This contrasts with 3mo MA through January 2012 at 52.4, 3mo MA through January 2011 of 53.1 and 3mo MA through January 2010 of 52.6.

This blistering pace of activity should, however, be treated with some concern. Now, take a look at the rates of expansion here, contrasted with rates of robust rises in Employment. Employment index rose to 56.5 in January from 53.4 in December. The Index posted above 50 readings in 5 months in a row and 3mo MA for the index is now at 54.6, up on previous 3mo MA of 51.3. Over the last 6 months, thus, employment in services sector have expanded rather rapidly.

Meanwhile, profitability in the sector continued to contract: Profitability Index (I compute my own for comparative analysis with Manufacturing, but let's stick to 'official' Profitability reading for now) remained well below 50, at 49.2, marking 62nd consecutive month of contracting profits in the Services sector.

Now, ask yourselves a simple question: 62 months of uninterrupted collapse in profits, plus over the same period 11 months of expanding employment, plus 21 months over the same period of rapidly growing exports, equals what? How can catastrophically less and less profitable business retain relatively robust employment levels and expand dramatically exports? Oh, well, the answer to this dilema is a simple, but unpleasant one - most of our services activity (and roughly speaking 90% of our services exports activity) is dominated by the tax-optimising MNCs. In other words, while the headline numbers are rosy, the underlying reality is probably less tangible to the Irish economy than we would like to believe. Employment growth in these MNCs-led sectors is primarily focused on importing skills (so no effect of reducing unemployment), while shrinking profitability in the Business Services sector and Transport, Travel, Tourism and Leisure sector (which led in profitability decline) means lower revenues for the Exchequer and lower indigenous employment.

One thing Irish Stuffbrokers issuing upbeat reports on PMIs basis are too lazy to check is the composition of what they are talking about at the aggregate levels. Here's a simple snapshot of employment increases over the last 6 months, reported in the PMIs:

Contrasted by 6mo data for profitability:

And contrasted again by New Export Business figures:

It turns out, on average, over 6 months, the ENTIRE range of PMI-covered services subsectors have managed to post increases in employment, and even mor robust rises in New exports, with largest rises, by far in the MNCs-dominated ICT services and Financial Services. But Business Services - the ones that are suffering from deep cuts in profits - are also posting rises in exports and employment. This is either bonkers data collection, or a severe selection bias toward MNCs with tax optimisation, not real activity on their minds.

You can see that new exports are acting to grow current employment, while shrinking profitability seemingly has no effect on current employment (current points marked in red) here:

More on profitability conditions and employment in both Manufacturing and Services PMIs in subsequent posts, but overall, the data is very positive. It is just worth asking a question just how much relevant is this data to real economic activity?

7/12/2012: Irish Services Index - October 2012

The latest data on Services Sector activity in Ireland for october 2012 is very encouraging and reflective of the underlying growth signaled by previous PMI in Services readings.

Headline CSO-published monthly Services Activity Index for non-financial services in Ireland rose 3.8% m/m in October (after weak -2.4% m/m reading in September) and is now standing at 107.0 - an all-time high. Note, data for these series runs only from October 2010. Year on year the index is now up 10% on October 2012, the first time annual rate of growth hit double-digits expansion in series history. 

Removing some of the volatility, 3mo MA is now at 105.3 - the highest it has ever been. Solid upward push well beyond the already upward-sloping trend is very encouraging. 3mo MA in 3 months through July 2012 was 105.0 - also strong reading, especially compared to 98.7 3mo MA through October 2011.

Growth rates are impressive: 3mo average growth rate through October is 6.7% on annualized basis, ahead of 6.1 reading for 3mo average through July 2012 (although m/m rate is 0.63%, well below previous 3mo average of 1.2%).

Decomposition by sub-sectors is also solidly expansionary:

• Wholesale and Retail Trade index rose to 115.3 in october, up 6.2% on September (following m/m fall-off of 2.6% in September) and up 10.5% y/y - the fastest pace of annual expansion in series history. 3mo MA is at 111.8 ahead of 3mo MA through July 2012 which stood at 110 and well ahead of 3mo MA through October 2011 (104.7). Average monthly rate of growth remained 1.33% in August-October, same as in May-July 2012. Annual rate of expansion based on 3mo MA series is now at 6.8% well ahead of 6.2% recorded for 3mo through July.
• All of activity in the wholesale and Retail Trade came in from Wholesale Trade side, with Wholesale Trade index rising to a historic high of 128.7 (+8% m/, and +15.4% y/y). Wholesale activity was booming, which might be a net positive to the holidays sales season. 
• In ICT services, activity rose 1.2% m/m and 6.5% y/y to 107.7. This only partially reversed the contraction of 2.8% m/m recorded in September 2012. The annualized rate of growth in the sub-sector slowed down to 6.5% in october from 7.3% in September. Thus, 3mo MA series are less impressive in dynamics: 2012 3mo MA through October stood at 107.9, down on 111.3 3mo MA for period through July 2012, but still well ahead of the 3mo MA through October 2011 (101.7). 
• The sector is pivotal to our exports and the fact that annualized rate of growth fell to the 3mo MA of 6.1% in August-October compared to 12.5% for the 3mo period through July 2012 is a bit of a concern. Still, I am happy to take 6.1% growth in the current global environment.
• Business Services index rose to 107.8 in October, the highest reading on record, with m/m growth of 6.3% (fully reversing the slide of 1.2% recoded in September). Year on ear the series up 10.7%. 3mo MA series are showing similar performance to the core index: 3mo MA through October is at 104.5, slightly up on 3mo MA through July 2012 (104.0) and significantly up y/y (100.5 recorded in 3mo through October 2011). Surprisingly, Business Services activity m/m expansion rate has slowed down over the last 3 months from the average of +2.3% m/m in May-July 2012 to an average of +0.9% in August-October. However, annual rate of expansion picked up from +0.4% in 3mo through July to +4.2% in 3mo through October.
• Transportation and Storage sector activity rose marginally from 113.0 in September to 113.4 in October. The sector failed to recover from a 1% m/m slide in September, gaining just 0.4% m/m in October. However, annual rates of growth in the sector are now running at double digits for 7 consecutive months and the rate of expansion has accelerated to 17.6% in October 2012, marking the fastest annual rate of growth in the sub-index history.
• Accommodation and Food sector activity slipped for the second month in a row. 3.1% m/m drop in September was followed by a 0.3% slip in October. 3mo MA for the index is now at 91.6, against 3mo MA through July of 89.4 and 3mo MA through October 2011 of 87.8. The sector has been a major disappointment in terms of activity since the start of the series.
• Other Services also showed persistent weakness in recent months - the fall m/m in the subindex of 0.8% in September was moderated by a rise of 0.7% in October, but overall the index is a relative laggard in the entire Services group, performing worse than even Accommodation & Food. 

So on the net, very robust index performance for Services sector activity, with good strengths in terms of 3mo MA trends in Wholesale Trade, Business Services, and Transportation & Storage, relatively steady performance in ICT services and continued weaknesses in Accommodation & Food and Other Services sub-sectors.