16/12/15: 36 years of interest rates across major advanced economies

As we inch closer to the U.S. Fed rates decision today, here is a useful chart summing up evolution of interest rates in key advanced economies over the last 36 years:

Happy lifting... 

17/7/15: ECB Rate Decision & Monetary Conditions in the Euro Area

Yesterday, ECB left unchanged their key policy rates. Updating my central banks' policy charts,

First, current policy rates for major advanced economies:

Next: duration and magnitude of rates overshooting (target range set outside mean (pre-crisis period, Euro coverage) +/-1/2 STDEV)

We are now into 80th consecutive month of interest rates statistically outside the mean range, with magnitude of deviation of some 3.05% down on the mean. This implies mean-reversion (increase in the rates) of between 2.70-3.4%.

Meanwhile, 12 mo Euribor margin over policy rates is up to 0.119% in Jul (to-date) compared to 0.113% in June. Corporate rates for new loans (>1mln Euro and 1-5 years duration) margin over ECB rate was up at 2.28% in May compared to 2.03% in April. May was the month when direction of Euribor margin diverged from direction of corporate loans margin, implying increase in banks margins.

Overall, the above shows that pressure on rates reversion to the mean is building up, while banks margins were improving (though we only have data through May on this). Nonetheless, banks margins are down on 2012-2014 averages, implying that more of the costs of any mean reversion in policy rates under current conditions will have to be absorbed by the borrowers.

Good thing, ECB is in no rush to get ahead on rates increases, yet…

13/3/2012: Agility of ECBleese

One has to simply admire the ECB's 'guarded optimism' of things improving, yet worsening at the same time. Here's the recent statement from Frankfurt full of pearls, like (emphasis mine):


"March 2012 ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, which foresee annual real GDP growth in a range between -0.5% and 0.3% in 2012 and between 0.0% and 2.2% in 2013. Compared with the December 2011 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections, the ranges have been shifted slightly downwards."


So: "According to recent survey data, there are signs of a stabilisation in economic activity, albeit still at a low level. Looking ahead, we expect the euro area economy to recover gradually in the course of this year."


Now, wait... is it 'shifting slightly downwards' from already unpleasant levels, or is it 'stabilizing'?




Then we have:


"Euro area annual HICP inflation was 2.7% in February 2012, according to Eurostat’s flash estimate, slightly up from 2.6% in January. Looking ahead, inflation is now likely to stay above 2% in 2012, mainly owing to recent increases in energy prices, as well as recently announced increases in indirect taxes. On the basis of current futures prices for commodities, annual inflation rates should fall again to below 2% in early 2013. Looking further ahead, in an environment of modest growth in the euro area and well-anchored long-term inflation expectations, underlying price pressures should remain limited."


So: "Looking ahead, we are firmly committed to maintaining price stability in the euro area, in line with our mandate. To this end, the continued firm anchoring of inflation expectations – in line with our aim of maintaining inflation rates below, but close to, 2% over the medium term – is of the essence."


And again, one can ask: 2.6-2.7% currently and staying above 2% in 2012 - that is medium term or short term? And why would inflation de-accelerate if the growth is to pick up per forecasts in 2013? Why would commodities price inflation taper off if global growth and indeed Euro area growth are to stabilize and even improve?


Then, of course, there's that statement that 'underlying price pressures should remain limited'. Followed by: "The March 2012 ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area foresee annual HICP inflation in a range between 2.1% and 2.7% in 2012 and between 0.9% and 2.3% in 2013. In comparison with the December 2011 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections, the ranges for HICP inflation have been shifted upwards, notably the range for 2012."

8/3/2012: ECB - policy dilemma remains

Much has been said, following today's ECB rates decision, about 'reappearing' inflation. Alas, much of that is, in my view, pure invented excuse. Inflation, if anything, is currently moderating - still well above the target, but declining. It his 2.7% in May-June 2011, then 3.0% in September-November and is running at 2.5-2.4% now (by my estimates for February). January inflation was the lowest since August last year.

While I personally think that we are facing inflationary pressures in medium term future, I don't see the urgency for tightening monetary policy today or for holding rates at 1%, unless one is to think that liquidity injected via LTROs into the banking system will start percolating into the real economy. The latter is unlikely to happen any time soon, in my view.

So what does the latest decision tell us about the ECB policy direction? Not much, if we are to go by the numbers. Instead, the latest decision continues to reinforce what I would term policy 'psychosis' - the situation whereby the ECB is clearly stuck between two targets (one acknowledged, aka inflation, another implicit, aka economic growth).

Charts illustrate:

First consider leading growth indicator and the relationship to ECB repo rate:

Growth conditions in the euro area clearly suggest rates at below 1%.

Now - inflation:

Inflation conditions clearly point to rates well above 2%.

I've highlighted this policy dilemma before and so far, there is nothing that has changed. So it's not about 'inflation threat' and it is not about 'growth support' - the ECB policy appears to be a clawback on LTROs...

9/2/2012: ECB rate decision

So we have ECB keeping rates at 1%... which relates to:

1) growth:

So with growth leading indicator stuck for the 4th month in a contraction territory, 1% repo rate is a bit too high, given we are now into the second leg of recession judging by leading indicators.

2) inflation:

So with inflation still anchored well ahead of 2% bound, that 1% repo rate is a bit too low for the ECB mandate, unless the ECB expects rapid de-acceleration of prices.

And in case you wonder, the pull on policy side comes from divergent growth/inflation dynamics:

And thus we have: ECB latest decision is inconsistent with either inflationary or growth signals. You might say that on average, that makes ECB policy balanced. Or you might want to say that this mismatch reflects monetary union internal inconsistency. Or both... take your pick.

22/1/2012: An update to Euribor risk premium post

On the foot of the previous post, I recomputed risk premia for 3 maturities: 12, 9 and 6 months euribor. Here's the chart:

And some top of the line numbers:

To compare against rates dynamics:

22/1/2012: What do interbank lending rates tell us about risk valuations?

Here is an interesting set of charts for euribor:

Notice that as maturity span shortens, there is an increasingly rapid decline in the rates in recent month. This, of course, is a reflection of two forces acting simultaneously - the ECB LTRO and the rate drop in December. You can see this here in the context of 12 months euribor plot for end-of-month (and end of last week for January 2012):

Sounds good? Indeed, the short-term end of liquidity curve improved dramatically, but... here's a trick - the long-term end of the curve is not improving as much as (1) the repo rate supports, and (2) LTRO (3 year facility) should lead it to. To see this - here's a chart:

And the above term premium is rising despite the risk premium falling:

Note: the last chart above is not seasonally adjusted and, with exception for 2010, euribor rates tend to fall seasonally in January compared to December.

In fact, current risk premia are well above the long-term relations and at more extreme end of the spectrum than during the previous months:

The above suggests to me that what we are observing in the liquidity markets is a combination of some improvement due to ECB's LTRO move (substitution along maturity curve) and the (very) incomplete pass through of ECB rate change to funding markets. There appears to be no evidence in risk reduction anywhere in sight.

08/12/2011: ECB call - denying the obvious

Today's ECB call in charts:

First, timeline and international comps.

Next, comparatives to other advanced economies.

Do tell me if ECB is running the weakest, most liquidity-constrained system in the advanced world. Charts above don't show that...

So Doc Dragho has just hooked a fresh plasma pouch to the Zombiefied Euro Patient... and it's half-empty...

03/11/2011: ECB rate cut

ECB decision to reduce rates by 25bps today has led to a dramatic reduction of the ECB overall rate premium over the basket of advanced economies rates as shown below. With today's decision, the ECB premium declines from 16.73% in October to 1.21% in November (barring any change in the BofE rate later).

This move, however, directly contradicts ECB mandate for price stability with inflation for October anchored at 3.0%:

28/10/2011: Euro area leading indicator points to a recession in October

Euro area leading indicator for economic activity, Eurocoin, has crossed into contraction territory in October. Based on the latest data from CEPR, Eurocoin is now at -0.13%, with corresponding quarterly growth rate of between 0% and -0.05%, signaling the likelihood of a recession for the euro area as a whole.

We are now at the lowest reading since August 2009 when Eurocoin stood at -0.21% moving to the upside in September 2009. Eurcoin 3mo average is now at 0.04% and 6 mo average at 0.285%. Year on year Eurocoin has dropped 132%. Per CEPR: "The fall is the result of deterioration in most of the variables that are included in the indicator, and in particular of the worsening climate of confidence among firms and consumers."

Worsening Eurocoin now signals Taylor rule divergence for the future direction in the interest rates, as illustrated in charts below.

Inflation-consistent rates are in the 3%+ territory, while growth-consistent rates are in the range of at or below 2%.

26/10/2011: ECB madness

Updated: includes latest data through September 2011:

ECB's past policy in a pic:

And he above madness is consistent with price stability mandate. No, I am not kidding - it was consistent with price stability mandate, even though it was killing weakening euro area economy...

In fact, price stability at 2% target for HICP would require current ECB rates to be in the neighborhood of 2.5-2.75%.

And note from the second chart below - of all major central banks, ECB is the only one to have raised rates since November 2010.

Let me provide a quote from the economist I rarely agree with: "The bitter truth is that it’s looking more and more as if the euro system is doomed. And the even more bitter truth is that given the way that system has been performing, Europe might be better off if it collapses sooner rather than later." Paul Krugman (source: here)

03/10/2011: Eurocoin September 2011: continued weakness in euro area growth

Euro area leading indicator for growth, eurocoin, was released last week, showing dramatic decline in economic activity for September. Eurocoin has peaked in May 2011 at 0.62, having dropped persistently since then.

In September, eurocoin reading stood at 0.03, barely above the recession reading (below zero) and down from 0.22 in August.
This marks the second consecutive month that eurocoin is statistically indifferent from economic stagnation. The projected quarterly growth rate for Q3 2011 is now down to 0.08% from 0.1% estimate in August and from Q2 2011 actual reading of 0.2%. Annual rate projection based on 9 months through September averages is 1.82% and dropping rapidly from 2.5% in May to 0.12% in September.

In terms of ECB monetary policy stance,
Eurocoin-consistent policy rate is now around 2.0-2.25%, while inflation-consistent rate is now closer to 2.75%.
The divergence of the current rate from both targets and the gap between inflationary and growth targets suggests that the likely direction of the economy is toward moderate stagflation with inflation anchored around 1.8-2.5% and growth around zero.

And here are the core components of eurocoin showing significant downward trends:

28/08/2011: Eurocoin August 2011 - signalling sharp contraction

Euro area leading economic indicator, eurocoin posted a sharp contraction in August, confirming rapid slowdown in the economic activity.

• Eurocoin fell from 0.45 in July 2011 to 0.22 in August, a drop of 51.1% - the sharpest since August 2008. This marks third consecutive month of declines.
• Eurocoin 3-mo running average is now at 0.40 and 6-mo average at 0.50. Year on year, the indicator is down 40.5%.
• The leading indicator is now reading within the band of 1/2 standard deviation from zero, making current growth reading virtually indistinguishable from stagnation.
• The indicator is now at the lowest level since September 2009.
  

• Annualized rate of growth is now running at 0.88%.
• Inflation - per ECB latest data, is running around 2.5%.

Updated charts relating Eurocoin to the ECB policy rates show lower expected fundamentals-determined repo rate at 2.5-3.5% based on Eurocoin and 2.75-3.25% based on HICP - both well ahead of the current rate of 1.5%.
The core drivers for Eurocoin decline in August were:

• H1 2011 growth rates (see earlier post here)
• H1 2011 slowdown in industrial production - impacting Germany and Italy and contraction in industrial production in France and Spain
• PMI Composite indicator through July 2011 showing contracting activity in the Euro area and in particular - Italy and Spain, plus significant deterioration in German business confidence (see detailed post here) and close-to-contraction reading in France
• Consumer confidence remaining in contractionary territory for the Euro area and, specifically, for France, Italy and Spain
• Sharp sell-offs in the stock markets across all 4 major economies, and
• Zero growth in exporting activity in the Euro area, with sharply falling exporting activity in Germany, zero exports growth in France, near zero growth in Italy and contracting exports in Spain
  

In short, all components of growth forecast are showing substantial deterioration, with 3 out of 5 main headline readings in contraction and 2 main readings in zero growth ranges.

29/07/2011: Euro area leading economic indicators - July 2011

The new Euro area leading growth indicator - eurocoin - published by CEPR and Banca d'Italia is out for July, showing signficant slowdown in economic activity in the Euro area ahead. Headline numbers are:

• Euro-coin fell in July for the second month in a row, declining from 0.62 in May to 0.52 in June and to 0.45 in July.
  
• 3 months average through June was 0.58 and 6 months average through June was 0.56. In July these declined to 0.53 and 0.555 respectively.
• Year on year June 2011 reading was 13.04 higher. July 2011 reading was 12.5% above that for July 2010.
• With historical standard deviation for eurocoin at 0.4594 > current July 2011 reading, this month reading is statistically insignificantly different from zero. The same is confirmed by looking at the crisis period standard deviation from January 2008 through current reading, which stands at 0.6288.

• The latest eurocoin implies Euro area growth rate of 1.81% pa, down from 2.24% pa growth predicted by the 6mo moving average.
• Core drivers of slowdown are: falling business confidence, stock market performance and widening spreads between long and short-term interest rates (cost of capital rising).
  

Updating figures for ECB rate policy determinants:

The above still support my view that equilibrium repo rate consistent with ECB's medium term inflation target is around 3.0-3.25%, well ahead of the current rate.

Latest industrial production (through May 2011) shows downward turn in growth in Germany, France and Spain, with Spain posting contraction in output, while France virtually reaching zero growth point. Italy is the only country of the Euro area Big 4 still showing accelerating growth in industrial production. Hence, overall for the Euro area, industrial output was nearly at zero growth line in May 2011, having posted 4 consecutive months of declining growth.

PMI composite for Euro area business confidence is now for the second month in a row firmly in the contraction zone. Consumer confidence is now at zero expansion in July, having declined over the last 2 months, with Italy, Spain and France all showing persistent declines in consumer confidence.
Chart source (here).

Lastly, exports show falling rates of growth over a number of consecutive months through May 2011 in France, Italy and Spain.

05/07/2011: Pre-ECB council meeting note

Here's my (cynical, but) concise summary of the pre-ECB call on rates this week:

We (Euro zone) have:

• Greece being kept alive pretty much for its 'spare parts' (privatizations)
  
• Porto just gone into coma with the latest downgrade of its bonds to junk,
  
• IRL in an ICU on an artificial respirator (see the bottom line on Irish Exchequer expenditure here)
  
• Spain feverish & fading out of consciousness on negative watch and with banks starting to implode (HT to Namawinelake, Spain is facing €660 billion of redemptions in 24 months ahead and with banks providing just 10% provisions cover on €450 billion worth of development loans)
  
• Italy getting the first symptoms of the deadly debt/banks spiral virus (negative watch for ratings and latest signs of banks starting to slip)
  
• Belgium on the trolly about to be wheeled into casualty department
  

In this environment, ECB raising rates this week will be equivalent to shutting off power supply to the entire hospital that is Euro zone.

04.07/2011: Eurocoin for June 2011

In advance of ECB decision and with a week delay - here's the latest leading indicator for Euro area growth - eurocoin - as issued by CEPR (link to release here).
As shown above, eurocoin posted a small decline from 0.62 in May to 0.52 in June. This reading is below 3mo MA of 0.57 and behind 6mo MA of 0.56, but is 13% ahead of the June 2010 reading of 0.46. The series continue to signal expansion, albeit at a slower pace.

Mapping out eurocoin alongside quarterly growth rates suggests, should eurocoin lower trend be established in July-August - slower growth in Q2/Q3 2011:

Lastly, a chart mapping eurocoin against ECB decisions:
The above suggests that although eurocoin signals alleviation in the pressures on ECB to raise rates this month, there is, nonetheless continued disconnect between the historical rates and eurocoin readings. Historical relationship between level and changes in eurocoin and ECB repo rate implies repo rate around 2.0-2.5% or roughly double current rate.