Friday, June 22, 2012

22/6/2012: Bilateral Trade with Russia - January-April 2012

After a couple of months, it is time to update the stats for Ireland's bilateral trade with Russia, especially since this week we saw the release of January-April Trade in Goods data.

Exports to Russia (goods only) rose to €189mln in 4 months from January-April 2012, up on €170mln for the same period of 2011. The y/y increase therefore is running at 11.2% for trade with Russia, against -0.62% contraction recorded for our total goods exports. Among 21 geographies other than EU27, bilateral exports to Russia posted 7th highest rate of growth in first four months this year compared to same period 2011.

Meanwhile, Imports from Russia fell from €54mln to €40mln y/y over the first four months of 2012.

As the result, our trade surplus vis a vis Russia rose from €116mln in January-April 2011 to €149mln for the same period of 2012 - a rise of 28.5% y/y (third largest increase among non-EU27 countries).

When compared to the rest of BRICs, Russia is not the only country that is generating trade surpluses for Ireland's exporters. India accounted for just €81mln in exports from Ireland in the first 4 months of 2012, up on €64mln a year ago, but it generated a trade deficit for us of €74mln in 2012 so far, against a deficit of €73mln in the same period of 2011. Brazil imports from Ireland fell from €94mln in January-April 2011 to €91mln in January-April 2012. As the result of this and due to much higher imports from Brazil, Brazil-Irish trade posted a deficit against Ireland of €100mln in January-April 2012 against a surplus of €31mln a year ago. China accounts for a much larger share of our exports, with exports of €757mln in January-April 2012, down on €759mln in the same period of 2011. However, we imported €859mln worth of goods from China in the first four months of 2012 (up on €855mln in 2011), resulting in a trade deficit against Ireland in our bilateral trade with China.

Crucially, Irish trade balance in goods with Russia is much more value-additive than our trade with any other non-EU27 country, save Australia and Switzerland. In the first four months of 2012, our ratio of exports to imports vis-a-vis Russia rose from 3.15:1 a year ago to 4.73:1. Meanwhile, our overall trade in goods imports intensity rose from 1.76:1 in 2011 to 1.81:1 in 2012.

Forecasts for 2012 bilateral trade with Russia based on historical trend and latest changes in volumes is provided below:


Daragh McDowell said...

Very interesting stuff Dr G - you don't perchance have a breakdown of the goods being traded available do you? Always interesting to see what Russia is buying.

TrueEconomics said...

Will post on this today/tonight, Daragh. for now - some older breakdowns: