26/10/2014: Ireland's trade in goods with BRICS

Summary of the latest trade in goods for bilateral trade between Ireland and BRICS:

Keep in mind: trade balance is what counts in GDP, GNP and GNI calculations. Data above reflects some impact of the Russian counter-sanctions of July 2014.

29/9/2014: Russian Economy Briefing for IRBA

Earlier today I gave a brief presentation on the topic of the Recent Developments in Russian Economy. Here are my speaking notes:

Economic growth in Russia was running at +0.8% y/y in Q2 2014 versus 0.9% y/y in Q1 2014.

At the same time, GDP shrank 0.2% y/y in July 2014 and 0% y/y in August 2014.

Taken against the consensus forecast for growth at 0.5% for the full year 2014, this suggests geo-political risks-induced slowdown in the economy of some 0.3-0.4% to-date.

Russia's economic outlook for 2014 and 2015-2015 continues to trend down, driven by two core factors:

1. Geopolitical risks of the Ukrainian conflict, and
2. Structural weaknesses in the economy.

The first factor is responsible for the expected actual output growth falling below down-trending potential output growth in 2014 and 2015.

The second factor is driving down potential output growth in 2015-2016 and beyond.

How dramatic were the growth forecasts revisions so far?

Take IMF: IMF is about to publish its October World Economic Outlook forecasts revisions.

In October 2013, IMF forecast real GDP growth in Russia to run at 3.0% in 2014, 3.5% in 2015 and 3.5% in 2016. So 3.5% average over 2015-2016.

In April 2014, IMF forecasts were running at 1.33% in 2014, 2.3% in 2015 and 2.5% in 2016, respectively. 2015-2016 average of 2.4% down 1.1 ppt on previous.

We have no forecasts for October, yet, but consider IMF's 'twin' organisation, the World Bank. The WB expect growth of around 0.5% pa on average over 2014-2016, broken down into 0.5% in 2014, 0.3% in 2015 and 0.4% in 2016. Average growth of just 0.35% in 2015-2016 down massive 3.15 ppt on a year ago!

Russian Government official forecasts are for growth of 0.5% in 2014, 1.2% in 2015 and 2% in 2016, so average 2015-2016 growth of 1.6% or 1.25 ppt above World Bank forecasts.

Taken against CIS growth rates, the official sector revisions suggest that about 1/2 of the total downside in growth expectations is down to Ukrainian crisis and the rest are structural.

Based on World Bank forecasts, slowdown in domestic investment and consumption will be the main drag on the structural side of growth.

Private sector analysts forecasts are even worse than those from the IMF and the World Bank. For example, Danske forecast for GDP growth is -0.3% in 2014, -1.9% in 2015 and +0.5% in 2016. These are driven by expected private consumption growth going from 1.2% in 2014 to -2.2% in 2015 and rising to +2.2% in 2016, Fixed investment falling 3.7% in 2014, 3% in 2015 and growing by only 0.3% in 2016.

Morgan Stanley cut its 2014 forecast for Russian economy from +0.8% growth to -1.5% recession earlier this month.

BOFIT forecast estimates growth of 0% in 2014, +0.5% in 2015 and +1.7% in 2016, or an average rate of growth of 1.1% in 2015-2016. These are more in line with official forecasts and are less gloomy than World Bank outlook and Danske outlook. I tend to err on their side, although my expectation is that 2015 growth will be above 0.5% and 2016 will be slightly shy of 1.7%, but the average of 1-1.1% for 2015-2016 looks about right, assuming no major rapid changes to the Ukrainian situation.

All in, there is huge uncertainty as to what we can expect from the Russian economy in 2015-2016.

The slowdown in investment is driven by a number of factors, such as:

1. Capital outflows and high interest rates (in part related to the Ukrainian crisis, but also linked to stubbornly high inflation and the Central Bank move to free floating ruble). Policy interest rates currently stand at 8% and are expected to rise to 8.5% by the end of 2014-beginning of 2015. Currently, EUR/RUB exchange rate is at 50.22 and 12month forward contracts imply the rate of 53.65, while USD/Ruble rate is at 38.8 currently and 12 months forward markets pricing implies the rate of 41.18. Much of this is down to the expected revaluation of the dollar and the strong euro vis-a-vis majority of the emerging markets currencies. But some is down to expected structural weaknesses in the Russian economy. Weaker ruble implying higher cost of imported capital goods and technology.
2. Weaknesses in the banking sector (exacerbated by the impact on the banks' access to global funding markets arising from Western sanctions) relate to continued sector consolidations (Central Bank has shut down more banks in 2014 so far than in 2010-2011 combined) and sector deleveraging (with credit supply growth falling dramatically over the last 12 months).
3. Tight fiscal policy: Russia's draft federal budget approved by the cabinet on September 18, upholds the budget rule adopted in 2012 that says the deficit may not exceed 1% of GDP. Spending composition changed to allow higher allocations to defence and national security, as well as to boost certain sectors of the economy. Much of the spending in the latter will go to building new production or expand existing capacity to substitute for imports, especially in the defence and agriculture sectors. The measures are part of Russia’s new emphasis on economic self-sufficiency. New funding was allocated also to Crimea and the Far East region development, and to large infrastructure projects such as Moscow’s new ring road. Per BOFIT: “The government sees giant state-funded infrastructure projects as a way to revive economic growth”. But big infrastructure investments are not identical in terms of their future productive capacity as business investment in new technology and capital goods. As Brazil example shows, infrastructure uplifts based on public funding are virtually one-shot game when it comes to funding growth.

On the budgetary policy side:

• The Government refrained from new tax hikes and shelved the proposal for sales-tax. VAT remained unchanged at 18%. This is a major net positive for domestic demand.
• Another positive on domestic demand side, but presenting new risks on long term macroeconomic sustainability front, the new budget includes decision to raise revenue by transferring federal budget pensions contributions for 2015 into general budget, same as in 2014. Under 2002 pensions reform, Russian pension system moved from pure pay-as-you-go system to partially funded system. Under the 2002 reformed system, a share of pensions contributions collected by the federal authorities went to fund current pensions obligations, while the balance was invested in long-term instruments to help fund future pensions provisions. Since 2014 and now into 2015, the second part of contributions will be diverted to general budget.

As mentioned above, Russia is moving toward a greater degree of economic self-sufficiency in two key areas: defense industry and agriculture. While the former is likely to be a drag on general investment, the latter presents opportunities for Irish exporters and is likely to lead to some economic grains in Russia.

Russian agriculture is in a desperate need of investment. I wrote about this on my blog http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2014/09/892014-russias-agrifood-sector-in-need.html on September 8th - a post that I shared with you on the IRBA Linkedin page. To summarise my findings, modernisation of Russian agriculture and food sectors will require annual investments in the region of USD10.7-11.7 billion per annum. Agriculture Ministry requested a 50% increase in annual farm subsidies from EUR4.2 billion in 2014 to EUR6.3 billion in 2015.

These investments will have to cover:

• -       Agricultural production, especially in dairy, fisheries, beef and fruit and vegetables sectors, including staples, like potatoes;
• Supply Chain Management and Logistics, especially in storage and transportation relating to fruit and vegetables sectors;
• Food processing sectors, especially relating to dairy and fishing sub-sectors.

Increasing Russia’s agricultural output will take significant time, somewhere across 2-6 years, depending on a sector (http://trueeconomicslr.blogspot.ie/2014/08/2782014-russian-economy-outlook.html).

We can expect significant uplift in investment support schemes in beef and poultry sectors, as well as in pork production. So far, draft 2015 Budget provides only 20% of the funds requested for this purpose. The hope is that the bumper crop of cereals this year is going to provide off-setting breathing space for investment: Russia expects grains harvest in 2014 to hit 104-106 million tons, just shy of the all-time record of 108 million tons achieved in 2008 and well above the 84 million tons average for the last 10 years.

Overall, most acute risks to the Russian economy are geopolitical, with sanctions escalation on September 12-18th resulting in more severe pressures on the banks for funding, as well as increased pressure on oil producers. So far, the sanctions war has been escalating despite the ceasefire in Ukraine holding and this suggests that we cannot expect lifting of the sanctions before the end of 2014 even under the most optimistic scenarios.

Credit supply from euro and dollar funding has fallen to zero for all Russian companies in July 2014.

The second immediate risk is that of declines in oil prices. Russian economy is more sensitive to changes in oil prices than to gas prices and the fact that oil is currently down some 16% on its June 2014 highs and is trading closer to USD95-96/bbl presents a major threat to the economy. Should oil prices fall below USD90/bbl, federal budget will require major tightening to keep the Government within targeted 1% deficit rule.

The third risk is to the investment side from the monetary policy: stubbornly rising and high CPI - currently running at around 7.9% against CBR and Government targets of 5.5-6%, and devaluation of the ruble, plus rapid outflows of capital from Russia - all are implying future potential tightening of interest rates policy. This, if it were to pass, will push even further down the already poor investment performance.

On the positive side, even with sanctions tightening, we are seeing some recovery in producer and consumer confidence, as signaled by PMIs and consumer surveys. But the recovery is fragile and uncertain in terms of future prospects. We need to see confirmation of the stronger PMIs trend in September figures, due to be released this week.

If we are to look at the demand side for exporters into Russian markets, things are tough. Russian imports have already fallen in 2014, driven by depreciation of the ruble more than by anything else. Imports declines contributed +6.5% to Russian GDP growth in 2009, but rebounded relatively strongly in 2010 and 2011, erasing the 2009 contraction. Imports shrinkage is likely to contribute some 1% to GDP growth in 2014, 0% to 2015 growth and -0.3% in 2015, so expected rebound to the current imports drop is likely to be less swift and longer-drawn out.

Surprisingly, imports slowdown and sanctions did not hurt, to-date, bilateral trade in goods between Russia and Ireland. In the first seven months of 2014, compared to the same period of 2013, Irish exports to Russia rose from EUR397 million to EUR509 million - an uplift of 28% y/y. Our trade balance in goods with Russia improved from a surplus of EUR301 million in January-July 2013 to a surplus of EUR353 million in January-July 2014. If in 2013 exports to Russia accounted for 3.67% of our goods exports ex-EU and USA, in 2014 so far it is accounting for 4.31% of our goods exports ex-EU and USA.

Keep in mind: in national accounts, net trade (trade balance) is what counts as additive to national income and GDP. In these terms, for the first 7 months of 2014, our surplus vis-a-vis Russia (at EUR353 million) is much more to our GDP and GNP than our trade deficit with China of EUR478 million.

While we do not have detailed breakdown of July trade flows, comparing H1 2014 against H1 2013, noticeable increases in Irish exports to Russia were recorded in:

• Coffee, tea, cocoa, spices and manufactures thereof
• Miscellaneous edible products and preparations
• Essential oils; perfume materials; toilet and cleansing preps
• Chemical materials and products nes
• Photographic apparatus; optical goods; watches and clocks
• Miscellaneous manufactured articles 

Noticeable decreases were recorded in:

• Live animals
• Meat and meat preparations
• Metalliferous ores and metal scrap
• Organic chemicals
• Medical and pharmaceutical products
• Office machines and automatic data processing machines

Opportunity space for Irish exporters in Russia remains wide open in areas not impacted by sanctions, e.g. outside immediate supply of some food and agricultural products. And new opportunities should open up in the areas relating to agricultural production, food processing, storage and transportation. In addition, there is renewed scope for investment in Russia in the above areas and in areas relating to technological innovation and modernisation in a wide range of sectors.

However, to facilitate this, it would be positive if Russian authorities were to accelerate policy efforts directed at attracting foreign investors into the country, especially in areas linked to investor protection and regulatory and tax facilitation. There is also a need for assuring investors that ruble valuations are going to become less erratic and the global rates divergence is not going to precipitate dramatic further drops in currency values. Key here is Euro/Ruble pair, rather than Dollar/Ruble one. Access to trade finance and insurance are also a major bottleneck.

While over the next 1-2 years we can expect more uncertainty and risks to materialise, including the risk of significant further devaluation of the ruble valuation, taking a longer-term horizon of 5-10 years, these factors are likely to be replaced by more positive growth momentum and improved returns on foreign investment.

17/7/2014: Irish Bilateral Trade in Goods with Russia & Ukraine

A journalist just requested from me some trade stats on Russian and Ukrainian trade with Ireland, so here is a summary table and a chart:

The table above shows irish exports to Russia by category. For comparison, Ukraine:

And totals for 2012-2013 full year:

Russia dwarfs Ukraine as trading partner for Ireland by:

• Exports - 2012-2013 average levels of goods exports to Russia is at EUR620 million against those to Ukraine at EUR62.2 million.
• Trade balance: average 2012-2013 goods trade balance wit Russia is at +EUR151.5 million surplus against deficit of -EUR16 million for Ukraine.
• In trade flows for the first four months of 2014
• Indigenous exports component of our trade: approximately 40-42% of our trade with Russia related to indigenous sectors of the economy, as opposed to near zero for our exports to Ukraine.

16/12/2013: Russian economy & Ireland-Russia Trade updates

My most recent note on Russian economy is available here: http://irba.ie/2013/12/03/russian-economy-a-slowdown-before-policy-driven-re-acceleration/#more-1245

On Russian inflation: as noted in the above, inflation accelerated in October. This is the first month of re-acceleration since May 2013 when inflation peaked at 7.4% y/y. The cycle low inflation was recorded in September at 6.1% y/y.

Ireland's bilateral trade (goods only) with Russia is covered here: http://irba.ie/2013/12/03/trade-with-russia/

13/3/2013: Irish-Russian Trade & Investment - The Moscow News

Report in Moscow News on Irish-Russian bilateral trade, investment links and current state of growth in economic links between Russia and Ireland:

themoscownews.com/business/20130311/191325204/Russia-and-Ireland-forge-trade-ties-in-busts-wake.html

15/1/2013: Some data and ideas on Russian economy

Russian economy quick summary of some latest stats and some disconnected ideas:

• Q3 2012 real GDP +2.9% y/y down from +4% in Q2 and +4.9% in Q1 2012.
• Expected Q4 2012 GDP growth +2.5%
• November 2012 GDP growth of +1.9% y/y inflation-adjusted
• Q1-Q3 2012 GDP +3.5% y/y
• Q3 2012 consumption +5.1% y/y down from +6.9% in Q2
• Expected full year consumption growth +4% y/y.
• Consumer confidence down to lowest in 18 months (since Q2 2011) in Q4 2012 at -8, Q3 2012 reading was -6.
• Industrial production is up +1.9% y/y in November, manufacturing activity +4%, manufacturing PMI at lowest level in 14 months in December at 50.0
• Services PMI down to 56.1, from 57.1 in November
• Composite PMI at 54.1 - a 4 months low.

Inflation is still a major headache for the Central Bank Rossii, with the level above the target, despite being close to historical lows:

• Headline inflation at 6.6% in December against 6.1% y/y in 2011, making 2012 the second best year in terms of inflation in over 20 years.
• Food inflation is 4.4% for 2012, tobacco up 21.2%. 6% crops failure due to drought in 2012 is taking the blame. Non-food inflation was 5.6% and services inflation at 5.4%.
• Meat and poultry led food inflation (+8.3%), brad and eggs prices up 6.2%.
• Alcoholic beverages prices were up 10.1%

Some consumption trends - food:

• 2012 per capita food consumption (local currency) = +8.7%; forecast compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to 2016 = +10.2%
• 2012 beer volume sales = +2.8%; forecast CAGR to 2016 = +2.9%
• 2012 mass grocery retail sales (local currency) = +24.4%; forecast CAGR to 2016 = +28%

All good news for Irish exporters as food represents a strong component of our exports to Russia (see latest data here).

Central Bank raised inflation target for 2013 from 2012-set 4.5-5.5% for 2013 to 5-6% set on December 29th. 2012 target set in December 2011 was 5-6% range.

Capital outflows remain a problem in 2012:

• 2012 capital outflow stood at $56.8bn - the fourth highest yearly outflow since collapse of the USSR, with $9.4 billion outflows in Q4 2012, up on Q3 outflows of $7.6bn and Q2 outflows of $6.4bn, but down on massive $33.3bn outflows in Q1 2012.
• Net outflows were now recorded every year since 2007.
• Banks recorded an inflow of $23.6bn in 2012, in part pushed up by privatization of Sberbank ($5.2bn)
• Net outflows in non-banking sectors of economy amounted to $80.4bn in 2012.

I do expect moderating capital outflows from Russia in 2013 and still expect strong capex in Russia. Ruble valuations are likely to remain strong despite the Central Bank interventions. At any rate, the CB is likely to moderate interventions in the currency markets as it moves to inflation targeting by 2015 from current FX targets.

On the net, I am still bullish long-term on Russian Government (and corporate) bonds:

• Recent decisions to open rubles-denominated bonds sales to foreign investors via Euroclear Bank and Clearstream International will continue pushing yields down. Renaissance Capital estimated recently that OFZs (ruble-denominated state bonds) yields can fall 50-80bps in 2013
• In 2012, OFZs returned 1.12% against 0.38% for Brazil, 1.36% for India and 0.03% for China.

15/1/2013: Ireland-Russia Bilateral Trade: Jan-Oct 2012 data

Some good data on Irish bilateral trade in goods with Russia. A graph and a table to summarise:

Details in CSO release here.

Very robust rise in exports (+17.6% y/y in Jan-Oct 2012) and in trade surplus (+24.6% y/y). Balance in favour of Irish indigenous sectors, with food & drink sector exports exceeding those of medical devices and pharma and chemicals.

25/6/2012: Q1 2012 Exports to Russia by Category

Per your requests, here is the breakdown of our exports to Russia by category - these are expressed as percentages of total exports to Russia. Data covers Q1 2012 - the latest we have available.

Update: per further requests: here is comparative table for our bilateral trade with Russia (exports of goods) in terms of each category of goods weight in total exports to Russia, compared against each category of same goods share of our total exports. Cells in bold mark goods which are more significant in our exports to Russia compared to our overall exports.

22/6/2012: Bilateral Trade with Russia - January-April 2012

After a couple of months, it is time to update the stats for Ireland's bilateral trade with Russia, especially since this week we saw the release of January-April Trade in Goods data.

Exports to Russia (goods only) rose to €189mln in 4 months from January-April 2012, up on €170mln for the same period of 2011. The y/y increase therefore is running at 11.2% for trade with Russia, against -0.62% contraction recorded for our total goods exports. Among 21 geographies other than EU27, bilateral exports to Russia posted 7th highest rate of growth in first four months this year compared to same period 2011.

Meanwhile, Imports from Russia fell from €54mln to €40mln y/y over the first four months of 2012.

As the result, our trade surplus vis a vis Russia rose from €116mln in January-April 2011 to €149mln for the same period of 2012 - a rise of 28.5% y/y (third largest increase among non-EU27 countries).

When compared to the rest of BRICs, Russia is not the only country that is generating trade surpluses for Ireland's exporters. India accounted for just €81mln in exports from Ireland in the first 4 months of 2012, up on €64mln a year ago, but it generated a trade deficit for us of €74mln in 2012 so far, against a deficit of €73mln in the same period of 2011. Brazil imports from Ireland fell from €94mln in January-April 2011 to €91mln in January-April 2012. As the result of this and due to much higher imports from Brazil, Brazil-Irish trade posted a deficit against Ireland of €100mln in January-April 2012 against a surplus of €31mln a year ago. China accounts for a much larger share of our exports, with exports of €757mln in January-April 2012, down on €759mln in the same period of 2011. However, we imported €859mln worth of goods from China in the first four months of 2012 (up on €855mln in 2011), resulting in a trade deficit against Ireland in our bilateral trade with China.

Crucially, Irish trade balance in goods with Russia is much more value-additive than our trade with any other non-EU27 country, save Australia and Switzerland. In the first four months of 2012, our ratio of exports to imports vis-a-vis Russia rose from 3.15:1 a year ago to 4.73:1. Meanwhile, our overall trade in goods imports intensity rose from 1.76:1 in 2011 to 1.81:1 in 2012.

Forecasts for 2012 bilateral trade with Russia based on historical trend and latest changes in volumes is provided below:

30/3/2012: Irish bilateral trade with Russia - 2011 results

The latest data on Irish-Russian bilateral trade:

23/12/2011: Composition of Irish exports to Russia

For those of you who asked: composition of Ireland's exports to Russia, data through August 2011:

This shows pretty decent diversification and the stronger role for indigenous enterprises, especially in Agrifood sector (26.2%, plus some segment of Other category).

16/12/2011: Ireland-Russia bilateral trade, September 2011

Based on yesterday's data for external trade, let's update Irish bilateral trade in goods data with Russia.

Irish exports to Russia totalled €46.9 million in September, up 61.2% yoy, against Irish imports from Russia of €7.8 million, up 14.7% yoy.

Irish trade surplus with Russia stood at €39.1 mln in September, up 75.3% yoy.

Revising annual forecast, I now expect Irish exports to Russia to reach €520 million in 2011, against €373 million in 2010, while Irish imports from Russia to settle at €125 million, down from €159.7 million in 2010. The resulting annual trade surplus will be around €398 million or more than the combined trade deficits in Irish trade with China and India in 2010.

January-through-September period trade surplus data for various non-EU countries expressed in millions of euros are detailed in the table below:

So in terms of trade surplus, Russia was Ireland's 5th most important trading partner.

12/11/2011: Russian economy - Summary 2011

Summary of the Russian economy in the light of the removal of the final barriers to the country accession to the WTO (see the related note here). To see the slides, click on the individual frame to enlarge

12/11/2011: Russia's accession to the WTO - opportunities for Irish exports & investment

This week, finally, with much delay, there is a full agreement for Russia accession to WTO, clearing the few issues that remained the stumbling block to the country membership. It is now expected that Russia’s membership will be approved at the WTO Council meeting on December 15-17. The decision is expected to go for ratification to the Duma some time in early 2012. Following the ratification, Russia will be formally admitted to the WTO within 30 days after the vote.

Under the core conditions for entry, import tariffs will be reduced from the average of 10% to 7.8% with at least 1/3 of all tariffs reductions to take place on the date of formal accession. 25% of the rest of tariffs reductions will take place after 3 years of transition. The balance will take effect after 7 years of transition (these focusing in the 'sensitive' areas of car manufacturing and aircraft manufacturing) and 8 years for some agricultural tariffs (e.g. poultry).

One core achievement will be in the area of customs clearance, with maximum customs fee to be reduced from the current Rb90,000 - or ca USD2,900 to Rb30,000.

Another core development is that the previously-announced major privatisations programme will be subject of reporting to the WTO

More specifically, in the areas of importance for irish exporters:

• Agricultural imports will see average tariffs falling from 13.2% current to 10.8% post-adjustment period. Cereals tariffs will declined from 15.15% to 10% and dairy tariffs will fall from 19.8% to 14.9%. Domestic agricultural supports - subsidies - will be reduced from USD9bn in 2011-2012 to USD4.4bn in 2018. 
• Russia will privatise 100% shareholding in the United Grain Company in 2012, as well 50%+1 share of the Rosagrolizing (by 2013).
• Overall, agricultural measures can be expected to drive significant change in the sector in Russia post-2020, with some expected capex growth in advance of these as domestic enterprises re-tool to enhance competitiveness.
• Manufacturing tariffs are to fall from 9.5% average to 7.3%. While automotive manufacturing imports tariffs are to declined from 15.5% to 12% over 7 years period. 
• In chemicals sector, average tariffs are to decline from 6.5% current to 5.2%.
• In telecoms sector, by the end of 2016 there will be lifting of the restriction on foreign ownership from the current 49% to allow full ownership of enterprises.
• Similarly, there will be no restriction on full foreign ownership of banks. However, foreign banks combined market share of the Russian market will remain capped at a maximum of 50%. In addition, by 2021 foreign insurance companies will be allowed to open fully-owned subsidiaries and branches in Russia.
• In transport sector, there will be equalization of treatment of foreign-made aircraft to that of the Russian-made aircraft in terms of leasing, eliminating current preferential treatment of Russian manufactured aircraft. By mid 2013, Russian railways will phase out price differentials for shipments of Russian-made and foreign-made goods.
• In services, the restriction on share ownership for wholesale, retail and franchise companies will be lifted immediately after the accession.

It is unlikely, however, that the accession will have an immediate impact on Russian trade and investment relations with the rest of the world, as compliance period relating to the accession is long, especially in the more 'sensitive' areas, such as car industry, transport industry, agriculture etc. However, we can expect an improved drive toward domestic (Russian) enterprises increasing their competitiveness and the Russian Government to accelerate efforts to improve institutional frameworks and enhance institutional capital. More active Government drive to secure key internal markets reforms is expected and this is likely to shape forthcoming Presidential elections.

On the net, I expect significant changes in the markets for Irish exporters into Russia and a long-term process of reforms and investment growth for Russian markets as the result of the accession. This is hugely positive development. The market potential for Irish trade with Russia is in the region of €1.3-1.5 billion or roughly double the current levels of exports.  The market potential for Irish investment into Russia is in the region of €1 billion per annum, although achieving this potential requires significant changes in the supply of auxiliary services to Irish investors (access to functional banking and investment advice).

Lastly, there is also a huge potential for Russian investment into Ireland. In recent years, Russian investments into EU have been increasing from about €3 billion annually in 2008 to the expected volume of €4.1 billion in 2011. But Ireland remains off the map for Russian investors with just two Russian-owned companies being clients of the IDA.

Note: Russia is currently the largest economy in the world outside the WTO, with GDP in excess of USD1.9 trillion expected in 2011. The World Bank estimates that joining WTO will add 3.7% to the country GDP between 2012 and 2016 and 11% within 2012-2021. See a follow up note summarizing the Russian economy.

23/10/2011: Ireland-Russia Trade for July 2011

Another data update - for bilateral Russia-Ireland trade flows. It's been some time since I looked at these series (CSO reports the data monthly with 1 month delay on overall trade flows data).

July 2011 exports to Russia rose from €37.3mln in June to €48.8mln. Year on year, exports to Russia are up 53.5%. Imports from Russia in July 2011 stood at €4.4mln, up on €2.5mln in June and down from €6.4mln in July 2010. Imports are now down 31.3% year on year.

Trade balance with Russia rose to €44.4mln in July 2011, up 74.8% yoy.

Annual forecasts for Ireland-Russia trade are looking solid.

For seven months through July 2011, Irish trade balance with Russia was €241.6mln, up on €122mln for the same period in 2010. In contrast, Irish trade balance with Brazil was €54.2mln in 7 months through July 2011, down from €66.5mln in same period 2010. Irish trade balance with China was -€91.5mln in January-July 2011, a major deterioration on €75.3 trade surplus in the first seven months of 2010. Irish trade balance with India posted a deficit of -€89.9mln for the first seven months of 2011, compared to -€80.5mln in the same period of 2010.

Over first seven months of 2011, Ireland's trade surplus with Russia was larger than our trade surplus with Canada (€158.7mln), Malaysia (€140.3mln), Mexico (€178.3mln), Singapore (€145mln - note that Singapore acts as a major entry point for global trade to the broader South-East Asia), South Africa (€99.3mln) and Turkey (€138.8mln). 

Of all BRIC countries, Russia was the only country that delivered improved trade surplus for Ireland.