5/10/2012: Eurasian Economic Commission

A very interesting and, in my view, on-the-money discussion of the Eurasian Economic Commission - the build-up on customs union between Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace: here.

Disclaimer: I would be a long-time supporter of the idea of the customs union within the CIS and the expansion of this union to include other neighboring states, with the Eurasian Economic Commission gaining capacity to negotiate functional trade and capital and people mobility agreements with the EU.

12/11/2011: Russia's accession to the WTO - opportunities for Irish exports & investment

This week, finally, with much delay, there is a full agreement for Russia accession to WTO, clearing the few issues that remained the stumbling block to the country membership. It is now expected that Russia’s membership will be approved at the WTO Council meeting on December 15-17. The decision is expected to go for ratification to the Duma some time in early 2012. Following the ratification, Russia will be formally admitted to the WTO within 30 days after the vote.

Under the core conditions for entry, import tariffs will be reduced from the average of 10% to 7.8% with at least 1/3 of all tariffs reductions to take place on the date of formal accession. 25% of the rest of tariffs reductions will take place after 3 years of transition. The balance will take effect after 7 years of transition (these focusing in the 'sensitive' areas of car manufacturing and aircraft manufacturing) and 8 years for some agricultural tariffs (e.g. poultry).

One core achievement will be in the area of customs clearance, with maximum customs fee to be reduced from the current Rb90,000 - or ca USD2,900 to Rb30,000.

Another core development is that the previously-announced major privatisations programme will be subject of reporting to the WTO

More specifically, in the areas of importance for irish exporters:

• Agricultural imports will see average tariffs falling from 13.2% current to 10.8% post-adjustment period. Cereals tariffs will declined from 15.15% to 10% and dairy tariffs will fall from 19.8% to 14.9%. Domestic agricultural supports - subsidies - will be reduced from USD9bn in 2011-2012 to USD4.4bn in 2018. 
• Russia will privatise 100% shareholding in the United Grain Company in 2012, as well 50%+1 share of the Rosagrolizing (by 2013).
• Overall, agricultural measures can be expected to drive significant change in the sector in Russia post-2020, with some expected capex growth in advance of these as domestic enterprises re-tool to enhance competitiveness.
• Manufacturing tariffs are to fall from 9.5% average to 7.3%. While automotive manufacturing imports tariffs are to declined from 15.5% to 12% over 7 years period. 
• In chemicals sector, average tariffs are to decline from 6.5% current to 5.2%.
• In telecoms sector, by the end of 2016 there will be lifting of the restriction on foreign ownership from the current 49% to allow full ownership of enterprises.
• Similarly, there will be no restriction on full foreign ownership of banks. However, foreign banks combined market share of the Russian market will remain capped at a maximum of 50%. In addition, by 2021 foreign insurance companies will be allowed to open fully-owned subsidiaries and branches in Russia.
• In transport sector, there will be equalization of treatment of foreign-made aircraft to that of the Russian-made aircraft in terms of leasing, eliminating current preferential treatment of Russian manufactured aircraft. By mid 2013, Russian railways will phase out price differentials for shipments of Russian-made and foreign-made goods.
• In services, the restriction on share ownership for wholesale, retail and franchise companies will be lifted immediately after the accession.

It is unlikely, however, that the accession will have an immediate impact on Russian trade and investment relations with the rest of the world, as compliance period relating to the accession is long, especially in the more 'sensitive' areas, such as car industry, transport industry, agriculture etc. However, we can expect an improved drive toward domestic (Russian) enterprises increasing their competitiveness and the Russian Government to accelerate efforts to improve institutional frameworks and enhance institutional capital. More active Government drive to secure key internal markets reforms is expected and this is likely to shape forthcoming Presidential elections.

On the net, I expect significant changes in the markets for Irish exporters into Russia and a long-term process of reforms and investment growth for Russian markets as the result of the accession. This is hugely positive development. The market potential for Irish trade with Russia is in the region of €1.3-1.5 billion or roughly double the current levels of exports.  The market potential for Irish investment into Russia is in the region of €1 billion per annum, although achieving this potential requires significant changes in the supply of auxiliary services to Irish investors (access to functional banking and investment advice).

Lastly, there is also a huge potential for Russian investment into Ireland. In recent years, Russian investments into EU have been increasing from about €3 billion annually in 2008 to the expected volume of €4.1 billion in 2011. But Ireland remains off the map for Russian investors with just two Russian-owned companies being clients of the IDA.

Note: Russia is currently the largest economy in the world outside the WTO, with GDP in excess of USD1.9 trillion expected in 2011. The World Bank estimates that joining WTO will add 3.7% to the country GDP between 2012 and 2016 and 11% within 2012-2021. See a follow up note summarizing the Russian economy.

Economics 10/04/2010: HSE fails children and families

Updated below

On several occasions last year I wrote about HSE failures to carry out its job and provide requisite follow up support for adoption process in Ireland. This week, the chickens came home to roost for our healthcare bureaucrats. Except, as is usual in such cases, it is not the bureaucrats who are bearing the cost of such gross failure to do their job, but ordinary families and children.

A disclaimer is due - this is not an academic analysis post. It is an angry post.

Since at least May 2009, HSE was on the notice that it is failing to comply with the documentation support required by Russian authorities in the cases of cross-border adoptions of Russian children. The Ministers for Children and Health were fully aware of the situation.

The problem is a simple one. After a Russian child is adopted into Ireland (or any country for that matter), the agency supporting the adoption (in the case of Ireland - HSE monopoly behemoth, plus a small organization relating to the Church of Ireland - PACT) must supply a report on how the kids are adapting to their new family and environs. It is a brief standardized assessment document and HSE is required to collect and transmit it to the Russian authorities. HSE has staff on its usual lavish pay who are responsible for doing the work. It has managers, on an even more lavish pay, who are responsible for making sure the process is adhered to. There is no nuclear science involved. Just a routine follow up.

Unlike PACT (which appears to be fully compliant), HSE has simply decided not to do its job. Yes, this is exactly what they did. Since May 2009 the HSE has failed to provide the Russian authorities and the Irish adoptive parents with any information as to when and how the HSE will comply with the international obligation. Adopting couples - years into the process and even those already approved by the Russian authorities - were stonewalled by the HSE. In other words - the usual practices of 'do nothing, say nothing' that marks HSE work in virtually all areas of its responsibilities has been applied.

Between 50 and 70 reports were not submitted to the Russian authorities over a couple of years, prompting last May a blacklisting of Ireland by Russian adoption agencies. The blacklisting was not enforced by Moscow in order to give HSE enough time to comply. 9 months later, with no progress from HSE, and actually nearly total stonewalling by HSE not only of the Irish families, but also of the Russian authorities, Moscow's patience has run out. Thus, last week, HSE regional bodies responsible for providing adoption support were blacklisted by Russia again, preventing hundreds of families from proceeding with adopting children.

At the same time, tiny PACT seems to have been able to do their job and avoid blacklisting. Despite not having all the vast resources of HSE nor the Department of Health.

I have no personal interest in the adoption process. But, like any normal person in the country, I have a general human interest in seeing families being able to adopt kids who are in the need of having a proper family. I do have a number of friends who either have adopted kids from different parts of the world or who are currently in the process of adopting kids (so I can see the great potential these fantastic people bring to the lives of formerly orphaned children). And as a fellow human being, I cannot stomach an unaccountable bureaucracy, like HSE, standing between these families, these kids and their dreams.

More than anything else in these times of the crises, the callousness, the laziness and the arrogance of some of our official bodies responsible for adoption highlight the need for a deep reform in this country's public sector. Those in HSE, who failed to do their jobs must be fired, barred for life from ever taking another public sector job and left pension-less, for their victims are the most vulnerable people in this world - innocent children and fantastic families that go though years of hard work to adopt them.


Update: per readers tip-offs (hat tip to B & A), The Minister for Children, Barry Andews TD has presided over the de facto closing of the intercountry adoption in this country. On his watch, China, Vietnam, and Russia all have either seen their adoption treaties with Ireland expire or not complied with. Mr Andrews was fully aware of the problems in the cases of Russia and Vietnam treaties since Spring 2009 and despite having assured the adoptive parents that the issues will be resolved has, so far, failed to do much about it.

The Adoption Board itself has apparent difficulties communicating with the adoptive parents and the broader public. The latest Annual Report the organization has bothered to issue dates back to 2008. This document represents the latest public communication from the Board available on its site. Done truly in HSE's best traditions of public communications, then.

Russian Business Forum

Last week, Irish Management Institute hosted another successful and very well attended Russian Business Forum. IBEC and Enterprise Ireland have promised to post all presentations on their sites, but here are the slides of my own presentation.